{"id":392982,"date":"2025-09-02T22:20:18","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T22:20:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/392982\/"},"modified":"2025-09-02T22:20:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T22:20:18","slug":"leeds-united-news-optas-updated-relegation-prediction-makes-for-shock-reading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/392982\/","title":{"rendered":"Leeds United News: Opta\u2019s updated relegation prediction makes for shock reading"},"content":{"rendered":"

The mood at Leeds United<\/a> has sunk again early this week after a poor end to the window saw Daniel Farke thoroughly let down in the way of attacking additions.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A draw at home to Champions League Newcastle United took Leeds up to four points heading into the first international break \u2013 already a third of the way to Southampton\u2019s wretched points tally from last season.<\/p>\n

It shows Leeds can and should be competitive in most games this season and therefore have a fighting chance of survival, but they could have been helped by a further addition or two as Farke was practically begging for throughout August<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Most Read on LeedsAllOver<\/p>\n

Sunderland show Leeds United how to get it done on deadline day<\/p>\n

As has been the case throughout the summer window, the level of ambition and effective recruitment shown by Sunderland has blown Leeds out of the water.<\/p>\n

The Black Cats\u2019 coffers were boosted at the start of the summer by the exits of Tommy Watson and Jobe Bellingham for a combined \u00a337million<\/a>, and it showed in their huge outlay on a number of eye-catching names from across Europe.<\/p>\n

Leeds had no such significant exits this summer, and were left scratching around for cut-price signings on deadline day, most notably with Harry Wilson first on loan, and then on a permanent deal.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"(REUTERS\/Ian Walton)\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, Regis Le Bris had three new arrivals in the form of RB Leizpig\u2019s Lutsharel Geertruida, plus Ajax\u2019s Brian Brobbey and Bertrand Traore, strengthening in three areas of need after injury setbacks and squad depth concerns, responding within 24 hours to Marc Guiu\u2019s Chelsea recall by bringing in Brobbey from the Netherlands.<\/p>\n

Opta Supercomputer predicts Premier League bottom three after deadline day: Leeds United survival, Sunderland finish rock bottom<\/p>\n

If you took Farke\u2019s words as gospel, a survival bid at Elland Road is looking much less likely after the lack of incomings in the final week of the window.<\/p>\n

However, the data suggests Leeds can scrape their way to 17th at the expense of their two promoted counterparts Burnley and Sunderland.<\/p>\n

Opta\u2019s updated predicted table<\/a> has Sunderland finishing bottom, Burnley in 19th, and Wolves taking up the last spot with Leeds keeping their neck above water.<\/p>\nxPositionTeamxPointsRelegation %<\/tr>\n\n16th<\/td>\nWest Ham<\/td>\n42.83<\/td>\n26.22%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n17th<\/strong><\/td>\nLeeds United<\/strong><\/td>\n38.89<\/strong><\/td>\n40.64%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n18th<\/td>\nWolves<\/td>\n36.93<\/td>\n47.13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n19th<\/td>\nBurnley<\/td>\n36.35<\/td>\n50.82%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n20th<\/td>\nSunderland<\/td>\n25.90<\/td>\n53.62%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Opta\u2019s method of calculating: \u201cThe model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s going to be a much tighter relegation battle for Leeds United, Sunderland, and Burnley<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

After two sets of promoted sides completely failed in even being competitive in the battle to stay out (ironically outside of Luton Town), the three here right now are different, it seems.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t to say any of the three will stay up, but you\u2019ve seen already with all three sides picking up wins in August and being up to speed that they will be much more competitive than previous promoted sides were.<\/p>\n

Sunderland\u2019s business has given them a superb chance of staying up, and you worry that if they can\u2019t manage it, it leaves all promoted clubs in the future wondering what you can possibly do to bridge the gap.<\/p>\n

However, it would be foolish to discount Leeds based on current evidence against far tougher opponents than the Black Cats have faced. Praise where it\u2019s due for Sunderland, but their first three opponents are all going to be down nearer the bottom come May, while our three are likely to be top half at least.<\/p>\n

Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The mood at Leeds United has sunk again early this week after a poor end to the window…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":392983,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8814],"tags":[748,393,4884,1860,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-392982","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-leeds","8":"tag-britain","9":"tag-england","10":"tag-great-britain","11":"tag-leeds","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115137034764215238","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=392982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392982\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/392983"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=392982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=392982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=392982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}