\t\tGermany\u2019s Merz: I Am Prepared For the Ukraine War to Last a Long Time<\/p>\n
Kielce, Poland \u2013<\/strong> Every year, the city of Kielce hosts Poland\u2019s Mi\u0119dzynarodowy Salon Przemys\u0142u Obronnego<\/a> (International Defence Industry Exhibition or MSPO), which has become the second-largest expo of its kind in all of Europe.\n<\/p>\n This year, there are exhibitors not just from Europe, but from the proverbial four corners of the world<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n Germany\u2019s Ukraine War Warning<\/strong><\/p>\n But if there is an overall theme to this year\u2019s event on everyone\u2019s mind, it is the remarks made this past Sunday by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.\n<\/p>\n The German leader spent most of Sunday burning up the airwaves with his prognosis on how the war in Ukraine might play out from this day forward.<\/p>\n He sees the conflict as stretching on for the foreseeable future, and with the US playing a lesser role than it might have in previous generations.\n<\/p>\n However, Merz no longer sees supporting Ukraine<\/a> in the war as an act of solidarity with NATO or the EU, or as upholding certain principles of the rules-based international world order.\n<\/p>\n Ensuring Ukraine\u2019s security, he says, is an act of self-preservation for the Federal Republic<\/a>.<\/p>\n If Russia is able to overrun Ukraine, then Poland<\/a> and then Germany<\/a> would be next, as he now sees it.\n<\/p>\n \u201cI am prepared for the war to last a long time,\u201d the German Chancellor said to the German news service Deutsche Welle<\/a>. According to Merz, the war could end tomorrow if Ukraine capitulates, but that is \u201cnot an option.\u201d \u201cThen the day after tomorrow it will be the turn of the next country, and the day after tomorrow\u2014ours,\u201d Merz added.\n<\/p>\n Alaska Summit Failure?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n His position is the clearest sign yet that European nations are reaching the conclusion that the rounds of attempted diplomacy<\/a> with Russian President Vladimir Putin have been little more than theatrics. The former KGB Lt. Col. continues to break every deadline<\/a> that is set for him by US President Donald Trump for the imposition of additional sanctions. This is one of the main points that Merz made reference to in remarks he made in a joint press event<\/a> with French President Emanuelle Macron in Toulon.\n<\/p>\n \u201cRussia is ignoring all diplomatic efforts to end the war,\u201d he said. \u201cEuropeans must together with US carefully discuss the next steps now. There must be an opportunity for Putin to meet with Zelenskiy, but there must be a willingness on the Russian side to initiate a ceasefire for such a meeting to take place,\u201d he continued.\n<\/p>\n But he added in conclusion, \u201cI am under no illusions. The war may last several months more\u2014we must be prepared for that.\u201d\n<\/p>\n Sceptics Of Trump\u2019s Diplomacy<\/strong><\/p>\n In the week prior to his Sunday announcements, Merz had expressed skepticism<\/a> that Trump\u2019s ongoing efforts to squeeze a peace agreement out of Putin would yield any positive results.<\/p>\n \u201cI would like the United States of America to work with us to solve this problem for as long as possible,\u201d Merz said. \u201cDiplomacy isn\u2019t about flipping a switch overnight and then everything will be fine again. It\u2019s a lengthy process.\u201d\n<\/p>\n When asked about security guarantees and if they would be airtight enough to protect Ukraine from another Russian attack \u2013 even if Moscow had previously signed on to a peace agreement \u2014 Merz said: \u201cThe number one priority is supporting the Ukrainian army so that they can defend this country in the long term. That is the absolute priority, and we will begin doing that now.\u201d\n<\/p>\n He was then asked if Germany was prepared to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Merz reminded those asking that every foreign troop deployment required Bundestag approval. He also did not specify what a German deployment could look like or whether he supported such a step.\n<\/p>\n What European Rearmament Means for the US<\/strong><\/p>\n Last September, Dr. Phillips O\u2019Brien, head of the School of International Relations and Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, co-authored an article for Foreign Affairs<\/a> with retired RAF Air Marshal Edward Stringer entitled \u201cPlanning for a Post-American NATO.\u201d Their thesis was that Trump, in his second term, would be \u201cfreed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first administration,\u201d resulting in a more isolationist foreign policy becoming the direction of travel in Washington.\n<\/p>\n Trump has prided himself on making foreign policy in general and participation in NATO in particular as a process in which he wants a better deal for the US from a business standpoint. This has resulted in the recent agreement on US support for Ukraine, in which the US no longer donates weaponry to Ukraine in its war against Russia.<\/p>\n Instead, in an agreement crafted with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte, the US sells its weaponry<\/a> to member states of the alliance, who then pass this hardware on to the Ukrainian military. While this may have seemed like a genius of a business arrangement in the short term, O\u2019Brien and others see trends that indicate European nations will start buying more of their own weapons and less of US platforms, \u201clike the F-35\u201d.\n<\/p>\n Spain<\/a> recently pulled out of an F-35 buy, partly due to these issues and partly due to price. The F-35, which Lockheed Martin makes in the US, is \u201cespecially vulnerable to this sort of economic turbulence,\u201d said a recent article in Politico<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n F-35 parts are sourced from more than 100 suppliers around the world. The more export orders the company receives, the lower the unit price per aeroplane. This means that if countries withdraw from a proposed procurement or reduce their total purchase, prices will increase for each aircraft for all users and buyers. The combined price tag for Spain\u2019s and Switzerland\u2019s F-35 orders was about $15 billion for several dozen planes each, reports the publication.\n<\/p>\n \u201cThe more that US telegraphs to the Europeans that they are \u2018on their own\u2019 in confronting Russia, the more US defense companies are going to find their orders from the continent decreasing<\/a>,\u201d said a European defense enterprise director who spoke to National Security Journal at the MSPO exhibition.\n<\/p>\n About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Reuben F. Johnson<\/a> has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation<\/a>. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the US Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor\u2019s degree from DePauw University and a master\u2019s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.\n<\/p>\n More Military\u00a0<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n \u2018They Are Learning\u2019: North Korean Troops Are Adapting to Drone Wars in Ukraine<\/a>\n<\/p>\n We Got Really Close to the K2 Black Panther Tank\u00a0<\/a>\n<\/p>\n