It feels like crunch time for Angela Rayner.<\/p>\n
Plenty of folk at Westminster reckon today is the day her fate will be determined.<\/p>\n
The prime minister told me yesterday he expected the investigation by the independent adviser on ministerial standards to be quick and he thought that was a good thing.<\/p>\n
That suggests Sir Keir won’t prevaricate in offering his own judgement about Sir Laurie Magnus’s findings once he himself has them.<\/p>\n
As ever, there is always scope for unforeseen wrinkles or unrelated stuff that pushes things back a bit.<\/p>\n
Does the prime minister want to do a wider reshuffle at the same time?<\/p>\n
Aside from the timing, this is a ‘heads it’s awkward, tails it’s awkward’ situation for the prime minister.<\/p>\n
If Sir Laurie’s report left scope for the deputy prime minister to stay on, it’s not an easy argument to make after all the revelations of recent days.<\/p>\n
But if she goes, as most I talk to now think is more likely, there are then two big questions: who replaces her and what does she do next?<\/p>\n
Does Rayner remain deputy leader of the Labour Party, a position she was elected to by party members, even if she is no longer deputy prime minister and housing secretary?<\/p>\n
If she resigns as the party’s deputy leader, a contest to replace her would begin.<\/p>\n