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Opposition parties make it clear they will vote against Bayrou’s government – analysisAngelique Chrisafis<\/p>\n
in Paris<\/p>\n
Opposition parties from the left to the far right have made clear they will vote against the 74-year-old centrist<\/strong>, meaning he and his minority government would fall after only nine months in office.<\/p>\n A French flag flies atop the National Assembly on the day French prime minister Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou seeks a confidence vote in parliament on the budget issue in Paris, France. Photograph: Abdul Saboor\/Reuters<\/p>\n The centrist president, Emmanuel Macron<\/strong>, is then likely to face the challenge of appointing his third prime minister in a year,<\/strong> and the fifth since he began his second term in office in 2022.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n As head of state with authority on foreign policy and national security, the president directly appoints a prime minister to run domestic affairs.<\/strong><\/p>\n But after Macron called a snap parliamentary election<\/a> last year, the national assembly has been divided into three blocs \u2013 left, centre and far right \u2013 with no absolute majority,<\/strong> creating a form of political deadlock and disagreement on the budget. This means there is no certainty that a new prime minister would be safe<\/strong> from a similar swift ousting.<\/p>\n Macron could also decide to call a new snap parliamentary election<\/strong>, although he has said he is reluctant to do so.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bayrou shocked even his centrist allies by calling the surprise confidence vote,<\/strong> saying he needed backing from parliament for austerity measures to reduce the public debt.<\/p>\n A long-term Macron ally, Bayrou was struggling to get support for his unpopular plan for a \u20ac44bn (\u00a338bn) budget squeeze and austerity programme to reduce France\u2019s public debt.<\/strong> His budget proposals, including scrapping two public holidays<\/a> and freezing most welfare spending, were contested across the political spectrum.<\/p>\n Bayrou will make a speech to parliament on Monday afternoon appealing for support<\/strong> and giving his take on the state of the nation and French public debt. This will be followed by speeches from the leaders of every parliamentary grouping,<\/strong> before a ballot of lawmakers.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Opening: Bye-rou?<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a long summer of speculations about the French government\u2019s future <\/strong>amid growing controversies about its plans for the country\u2019s next budget seeking to rein in spiraling state deficit and debts.<\/p>\n France\u2019s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou poses in his office at the hotel Matignon, French Prime minister\u2019s official residence, in Paris. Photograph: Joel Saget\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n But it will all be clear today as the National Assembly holds a vote of confidence in Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou\u2019s<\/strong> embattled government<\/strong>. According to the declarations from the party leaders, he has little change of securing the majority required to cling on.<\/p>\n Bayrou would be the third prime minister to lose the post in a year<\/strong>, leaving the president, Emmanuel Macron<\/strong>, in a difficult political position and an impossible vacancy to fill. <\/strong>A Verian poll for Le Figaro magazine<\/a> this weekend found only 15% of French people trust Macron to resolve the political crisis.<\/p>\n For background on how we got to this point, here is a handy explainer from our Angelique Chrisafis<\/strong> in Paris.<\/p>\n The debate is set to start at 2pm BST (3pm Paris)<\/strong>, and the key vote is expected to be closer to 6pm BST (7pm Paris).<\/strong><\/p>\n If everything goes as we expect it to, 74-year-old Bayrou will be gone by the evening,<\/strong> even if technically he will remain in post as a caretaker until his successor can be found.<\/p>\n One of the key questions is about Macron\u2019s next step.<\/strong> Will he appoint a new, potentially younger, prime minister<\/strong> to have another go? Or would he dissolve the parliament and call a snap election<\/strong> in a hope it could resolve the current stand-off?<\/p>\n Let\u2019s see. Lots for us to talk about.<\/p>\n