In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending September 5.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis follows a 2.4 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing looser than our expectations,\u201d the strategists said in the report.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor this week\u2019s balance, from refineries, we model a slight reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we also model a slight decrease, with exports (-0.6 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.7 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis,\u201d they added.<\/p>\n
Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week\u2019s crude balance, the Macquarie strategists warned in the report. \u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a slight increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n
\u201cRounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar increase (+0.5 MM BBL) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,\u201d they added.<\/p>\n
The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that, \u201camong products\u201d, they \u201clook for a small gasoline draw (-0.6 million barrels) with builds in distillate (+3.3 million barrels) and jet (+1.2 million barrels)\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cAmidst holiday effects, we model implied demand for these three products at ~13.9 million barrels per day for the week ending September 5,\u201d the strategists said in the report.<\/p>\n
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on September 4 and included data for the week ending August 29, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 2.4 million barrels from the week ending August 22 to the week ending August 29.<\/p>\n
The EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 420.7 million barrels on August 29, 418.3 million barrels on August 22, and 418.3 million barrels on August 30, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 404.7 million barrels on August 29, 404.2 million barrels on August 22, and 379.7 million barrels on August 29, 2024, the report highlighted.<\/p>\n
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane\/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.670 billion barrels on August 29, according to the report. Total petroleum stocks were up 7.6 million barrels week on week and up 20.6 million barrels year on year, the report showed.<\/p>\n
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on September 5, Li Xing, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said, \u201csentiment deteriorated following the latest report from the Energy Information Administration, which revealed an unexpected 2.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis directly contradicted analyst forecasts for a 1.8 million barrel draw and bolstered the case for weakening domestic demand,\u201d Xing added.<\/p>\n
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on September 2, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending August 29.<\/p>\n
The EIA\u2019s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on September 10. It will include data for the week ending September 5.<\/p>\n
The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. On its website, the EIA notes that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.<\/p>\n
To contact the author, email\u00a0andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com<\/a><\/p>\n
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