Russia and Belarus have kicked off major joint military drills as tensions in the region spiked after Russian drones entered Polish territory, prompting Warsaw and NATO allies to scramble their defenses.<\/p>\n
The \u201cZapad-2025\u201d drills that began on September 12 will take place in Belarus and Russia and will last until September 16.<\/p>\n
Russian officials said the war games will simulate repelling an enemy attack and analysts say a central aim of the exercises is to showcase that the Russian military is still powerful after three-and-a-half years of grinding war in Ukraine that is estimated to have cost Moscow more than one million casualties.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think the purpose is for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to try to show that he is still strong, that the war in Ukraine hasn\u2019t really affected them,\u201d Lance Landrum, a retired Lieutenant General in the US Air Force who is now a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told RFE\/RL.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s war games are also set to practice the decision-making around the use of Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable intermediate range missiles that Moscow has promised to supply to Minsk. Russia hasn\u2019t said how many tactical nuclear weapons it has deployed to Belarus, but Lukashenko said in December that his country had several dozen.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think this is a display for nations and world media as part of their influence campaign,\u201d Landrum said.<\/p>\n
The drills have already drawn concerns from Ukraine and other countries bordering Belarus — such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland — who will be watching closely after the last Zapad military exercises in 2021 were used in part as cover for moving Russian troops into Belarus, where they then rolled into Ukraine in February 2022.<\/p>\n
A NATO spokesperson told RFE\/RL that the alliance monitors Russian military activity closely and that they call on “Russia and Belarus to act in a predictable and transparent manner in line with their international commitments” during the Zapad drills, but that NATO does “not see any immediate military threat” against any member.<\/p>\n
“The Kremlin has consistently demonstrated a lack of transparency, including with regard to the size and scope of its exercises,” the spokesperson told RFE\/RL. “It has a known history of using military exercises to pursue coercive policies.”<\/p>\n
How Many Troops Will Be In Zapad-2025 Exercises?<\/strong><\/p>\n Amid the Kremlin\u2019s ongoing war in Ukraine, this year\u2019s Zapad could be the most limited ever.<\/p>\n Belarusian defense officials said earlier this year that about 13,000 troops would participate in the exercises close to the country\u2019s western border. But in May, that number was revised and cut in half, putting the likely total to be around 7,000-8,000 personnel.<\/p>\n That announcement also said that the main maneuvers would take place deeper inside Belarus. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said most of the exercise will happen around the city of Barysau, about 74 kilometers northeast of Minsk, although some \u201csmall units will carry out practical tasks to repel a hypothetical enemy\u201d in areas close to the border with Poland and Lithuania.<\/p>\n Moscow is also only forecast to send about 2,000 troops<\/strong><\/a> to Belarus, while the total exercise will also cover Russia\u2019s Moscow and Leningrad military districts, the Kaliningrad exclave, the Arctic region, and the Baltic and Barents seas.<\/p>\n Russia, however, is also running three other separate exercises with countries from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — a military bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, which could mask the true size of Zapad.<\/p>\n Still, Zapad is expected to be far smaller in scale than the estimated 200,000 troops that took part in the last iterations of the military exercises in 2021.<\/p>\n Why Are This Year’s Zapad Drills Significant?<\/strong><\/p>\n While this year\u2019s drills are set to be smaller than in recent years, they mark a return to strategic level exercises for Russia and Belarus since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n \u201cThis year\u2019s exercise will very likely indicate how Moscow expects a war against NATO to play out,\u201d the German Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a recent report<\/strong><\/a> previewing the exercises. \u201cWhile there is no acute danger of escalation, the exercise will provide NATO with important lessons on Russia\u2019s concept of a future war.\u201d<\/p>\n Zapad, which means \u201cWest\u201d in Russian, is the latest iteration of military exercises that began in the 1970s under the Soviet Union and continued until its collapse in 1991. It was revived in 1999 and later expanded under Putin as part of a four-year cycle of military drills that rotate through Russia and its neighbors’ geographic regions.<\/p>\n