{"id":423646,"date":"2025-09-14T12:15:24","date_gmt":"2025-09-14T12:15:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/423646\/"},"modified":"2025-09-14T12:15:24","modified_gmt":"2025-09-14T12:15:24","slug":"busted-flush-welsh-labour-prepares-to-fight-byelection-amid-dire-polling-wales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/423646\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Busted flush\u2019: Welsh Labour prepares to fight byelection amid dire polling | Wales"},"content":{"rendered":"

For many in Welsh Labour<\/a>, this summer was the last chance for a rest before the party faces the election battle of its life in next May\u2019s Senedd elections. Instead, Labour found itself in mourning for the MS for Caerphilly, Hefin David, who died suddenly last month.<\/p>\n

Come October, Welsh Labour will now have to fight a byelection under tragic and untimely circumstances. Plaid Cymru<\/a> and Reform UK are both well ahead in the polls; losing longtime Labour stronghold Caerphilly would deal another serious blow to morale in an election year.<\/p>\n

It would also eliminate Labour\u2019s narrow majority in the Senedd \u2013 30 MSs, plus the sole Liberal Democrat \u2013 raising questions about Labour\u2019s ability to govern and pass this year\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n

\u201cHefin\u2019s death is very sad and challenging for everyone. Because it happened over the recess, the first time we came together to grieve was at the funeral last week, and it\u2019s still sinking in,\u201d a senior Labour source said in Cardiff Bay.<\/p>\n

Hefin David, member of the Senedd for Caerphilly, died last month. Photograph: Geoff Caddick\/PA<\/p>\n

David left behind two children and a partner, Vikki Howells, the Labour MS for neighbouring Cynon Valley.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe final inquest isn\u2019t until April. Vikki is going to have to go through all that while campaigning. No one wants a byelection on these terms \u2026 It\u2019s going to darken the whole year,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n

The Senedd reconvenes on Monday with a packed legislative agenda to rush through before it dissolves in April, including a landmark bill<\/a> aimed at tackling homelessness. It must also decide how to retool its investigation into the Welsh government\u2019s handling of the pandemic<\/a>, after members of the Senedd committee set up to address gaps in the UK inquiry quit in July.<\/p>\n

It was never going to be an easy year for Welsh Labour. After leading every Cardiff Bay government since devolution in 1999, polls suggest Labour\u2019s base has collapsed and the party will come third next May. Voters\u2019 top priority is Wales\u2019 struggling public services<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to OECD metrics, Welsh children\u2019s reading, maths and science skills slumped to the lowest ever levels in 2024, and NHS waiting lists are much longer than the rest of the UK \u2013 currently about 20% of Welsh patients are waiting more than a year for hospital treatment, compared with about 4% in England.<\/p>\n

Wales remains by far the poorest UK nation. Poverty rates have hovered at about one in five people for decades, and have intensified over time: the proportion of that group considered to be in very deep poverty has risen from 33% in the 90s to 47% in 2023, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one underestimates the scale of the fight we have on our hands,\u201d said another Welsh Labour source.<\/p>\n

Labour\u2019s strategy so far has been to attack Plaid Cymru and Reform UK<\/a> as unknown quantities lacking governing experience. But those parties are buoyant \u2013 as are the Greens, who won a seat from Labour in a Cardiff council byelection last month and are hoping to go from zero to as many as four Senedd seats in May on the back of Labour\u2019s draining support.<\/p>\n

The Caerphilly byelection means the starting gun for the spring elections has gone off early as the first real test of Reform\u2019s support in Wales. This term, the party has entered the Senedd for the first time, thanks to the defection of the Conservative MS Laura Anne Jones over the summer, but an elected member would bolster the party\u2019s legitimacy and momentum before May.<\/p>\n

Nigel Farage himself appeared for the party\u2019s candidate announcement at the Caerphilly social club on Friday, telling reporters Reform would \u201cthrow everything\u201d at the campaign.<\/p>\n

Nigel Farage with Reform UK\u2019s candidate for the Caerphilly byelection, Llyr Powell, outside the party\u2019s office in the town. Photograph: Ben Birchall\/PA<\/p>\n

Yet analysis by the Welsh Election Study suggests most former loyal Labour voters were turning to Plaid Cymru rather than Farage\u2019s outfit, which is yet to appoint a Welsh leader.<\/p>\n

Lindsay Whittle, the Welsh nationalist party\u2019s candidate in Caerphilly, kicked off his campaign this week<\/a> by calling Labour a \u201cspent force in the valleys\u201d and naming Reform as his biggest threat. That was quickly followed by leader of Caerphilly council, Sean Morgan, resigning from Labour, calling the party a \u201cbusted flush\u201d, and announcing his intention to vote for Plaid Cymru.<\/p>\n

A senior Plaid Cymru source said: \u201cWhilst we\u2019ve never been complacent about the work ahead \u2026 There is profound positivity within the party. Our message is one of change being possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

The byelection will be the last Senedd contest held under the first past the post voting system. In May, constituencies will be redrawn, the Senedd will grow from 60 to 96 seats, and every race will become newly competitive under proportional representation.<\/p>\n

The changes are a particular boon for Reform, which could be the largest party in next year\u2019s Senedd. But Labour and Plaid Cymru have vowed not to work with Reform in a coalition, so if the polls are accurate, only the Welsh nationalist party will have a shot at forming a government.<\/p>\n

Another unexpected dynamic in next year\u2019s election comes in the form of the new leftwing Your Party, put together by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana. It has found supporters in Beth Winter, the former Cynon Valley Labour MP, and Mark Serwotka, a former general secretary of the PCS union. The pair are hosting a conference in October to discuss getting candidates on the ballot.<\/p>\n

\u201cYour Party fielding candidates could pose more of a threat of splitting Plaid\u2019s perceived voter base than ours,\u201d said the second Labour source. \u201cThere are so many unknowns going into May \u2026 It\u2019s going to be a long year but we\u2019re up for it.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For many in Welsh Labour, this summer was the last chance for a rest before the party faces…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":423647,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5010],"tags":[748,4884,16,15,1764],"class_list":{"0":"post-423646","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-wales","8":"tag-britain","9":"tag-great-britain","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-wales"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115202603458468801","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=423646"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423646\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/423647"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=423646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=423646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=423646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}