One and a half million Australians are at risk from sea levels rising by 2050 unless climate change can be limited, Australia\u2019s first national climate risk assessment has warned.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It found under 1.5C of warming, sea levels would rise by 0.14m, but they would rise by 0.54m under a 3C scenario \u2014 with Queensland home to 18 of the 20 most-exposed regions.<\/p>\n
The assessment, which is the single most-significant body of climate work by the Australian government, also warns that 597,000 people are living in areas that will become exposed to sea level rise by 2030.<\/p>\n
The grim document has been released days ahead of the federal government committing to its emissions target for 2035, and a meeting at the United Nations where countries will update their commitments.<\/p>\n
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said the assessment was an honest warning of the cost of failing to act.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“I think many Australians will find this report confronting \u2026 I would say to people, let\u2019s be clear-eyed about the challenges, let\u2019s be realistic about the threats, but let\u2019s be optimistic for the future,” Mr Bowen said.<\/p>\n
“One thing that is very clear from this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake.<\/p>\n
“The cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.”<\/p>\n
Climate impacts coming, even if emissions fall<\/p>\n
The National Climate Risk Assessment modelled impacts under three scenarios: 1.5C of warming, 2C of warming and 3C of warming.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Climate Change Authority says based on current global commitments, the world is on track to see 2.9C of warming this century.<\/p>\n
“Even if emissions fell\u00a0immediately tomorrow, there would\u00a0still be impacts of climate change\u00a0on our country. The report makes\u00a0that clear. So, yes, the world needs\u00a0to keep working on emissions\u00a0reduction. The world is,” Mr Bowen said.<\/p>\n
“But countries are continuing the journey. There will be bumps and headwinds along the journey.”<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen says the national risk assessment is an honest picture of why Australia must reduce its emissions. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)<\/p>\n
Mr Bowen confirmed he had received the Climate Change Authority’s advice on Australia’s 2035 target, and said he was confident it would be a target that could be achieved and that Australians could have “pride” in.<\/p>\n
In a statement, the Climate Council described the risk assessment as a “horror story”.<\/p>\n
“These are the government’s own numbers and they’re terrifying. It’s the kind of bedtime reading that should keep ministers up at night. But doing too little is an active choice, and we can choose a better future by cutting climate pollution harder and faster now,” chief executive Amanda McKenzie said.<\/p>\n
3C scenario brings rise in heatwave deaths, loss of nature, $40b disaster bill<\/p>\n
While the National Climate Risk Assessment provides a national picture of Australia’s potential future, it has also detailed potential impacts at a local level.<\/p>\n
The assessment shows Northern Australia will be particularly prone to hazards, with more pressure on population health, critical infrastructure and natural species.<\/p>\n
But everywhere can be expected to feel the impacts.<\/p>\n
Heatwave deaths in Sydney, for example, would rise by more than 400 per cent under a 3C scenario, and would still double under 1.5C scenario.<\/p>\n
In Melbourne, deaths from heatwaves would rise by 259 per cent under 3C, and 60 per cent under 1.5C.<\/p>\n
Nationally, the cost of disaster recovery can also be expected to increase dramatically to more than $40 billion a year by 2050, and would be worse under a 3C scenario.<\/p>\n
There would also be a $611 billion hit to property values by that time.<\/p>\n
The country also faces severe risks to water security, with projected widespread declines in rainfall<\/p>\n
Half of plant species in habitats to change<\/p>\n
Forty to 70 per cent of species will be “forced to move, adapt to the new conditions or die out” under a 3C scenario, with half of plant life in any location becoming different species to what was in environments in 1990.<\/p>\n
Eucalypt forests will come under threat and there would be an almost certain risk of “catastrophic consequences” for coral reefs.<\/p>\n
“The future may no longer support systems such as alpine ecosystems, tall open forests and ancient Gondwanan rainforest,” the report also warns.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Australia’s coral reefs face “catastrophic consequences” under 3C of warming. (Supplied: Blue Media)<\/p>\n
And in a warning as South Australia suffers through an algal bloom, the risk assessment also warns that marine life has “no room to move” in the Southern Ocean, and would need to adapt or die out.<\/p>\n
But alongside the risk assessment, the government has also released an adaptation plan developed in response to it that lays the foundations for how Australia can reduce the worst impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n
The plan prioritises actions to support “disproportionately vulnerable” Australians, federal responsibility and directing resources to the highest-risk issues.<\/p>\n
It includes developing plans to make insurance affected by climate change sustainable, developing climate resilience as a part of the National Construction Code, and “climate-adapted services” for people with disabilities and chronic illness, among a host of other possible measures.<\/p>\n
An “action agenda” will be developed in partnership with the states by the end of 2026 to identify priority areas for adaptation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One and a half million Australians are at risk from sea levels rising by 2050 unless climate change…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":425173,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3843],"tags":[728,70,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-425172","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-science","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115205942466371141","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=425172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425172\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/425173"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=425172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=425172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=425172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}