Things have ostensibly gotten worse since Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump met in Alaska last month to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Not only has Russia ramped up military attacks on Ukraine, but it has flown MiG-31 jets over Estonia and\u00a0launched drone flights that breached airspace over Poland and Romania \u2014 all three are NATO countries. In fact, fighter jets from the North Atlantic alliance shot down 19 unarmed Russian drones over Poland last week.<\/p>\n
Russia scholars and analysts, however, view the actions as less of an anomaly and more Putin\u2019s ongoing efforts to test NATO\u2019s resolve and to drive a wedge between Europe and the U.S.<\/p>\n
\u201cI suspect it\u2019s not a coincidence that this happened after the warm reception that Putin had in Alaska. He has noticed there\u2019s less willingness on the side of the United States to back up Ukraine under the current administration than there was under the previous one, and I think he feels emboldened by that,\u201d said Mary Elise Sarotte<\/a> \u201988, a Cold War historian and Marie-Jos\u00e9e and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.<\/p>\n Russia may be hoping to leverage any disagreement between NATO and the U.S. over the appropriate response to the incursions to undermine solidarity and \u201chollow out\u201d NATO\u2019s Article 5 mutual security guarantee among members, said Jake Sullivan<\/a>, former national security adviser to President Joe Biden from January 2021 to January 2025 as well as during Biden\u2019s vice presidency.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia excels in the gray zone, in areas where there\u2019s murk and ambiguity, and this drone incursion is squarely in the gray zone,\u201d he said, adding that the U.S. and NATO should expect Russia to continue using drones and other forms of hybrid warfare in Europe and the Baltic states unless they\u2019re deterred.<\/p>\n Given how weak Russia\u2019s economy is right now, the U.S. and Europe have a uniquely \u201copportune moment\u201d to further ratchet up sanctions on Russian oil. It would put Putin in a difficult position while signaling to the world that this type of provocation won\u2019t be tolerated, said Sullivan, now Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at Harvard Kennedy School<\/a>.<\/p>\n That kind of unified response appears unlikely. Trump said in a recent social media post<\/a> that the U.S. would institute major new sanctions on Russia only after all NATO countries stop purchasing Russian oil.<\/p>\n Many critics, including Sullivan, view that stance as attempt to shift primary responsibility for escalating pressure on Putin away from the U.S. and onto the Europeans given that only Slovakia, Hungary, and Turkey still import Russian oil.<\/p>\n Another option open to Europe, one that it could take unilaterally, would be to hand Ukraine the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets as a kind of down payment on future reparations for the war, Sullivan said.<\/p>\n It would be a bold step, which the Europeans have a legal right to take, and would bolster Ukraine\u2019s immediate and longer-term resilience. \u201cI think doing that will get Putin\u2019s attention,\u201d said Sullivan.<\/p>\n Two things will need to happen to compel Putin to strike a lasting, good-faith peace deal with Ukraine.<\/p>\n \u201cOne, he has to finally realize that he\u2019s not going to be able to achieve his goals on the battlefield \u2014 which he has not yet. And I believe if Ukraine has staying power, he won\u2019t. So, the U.S. has to continue to work with Europeans and others to support Ukraine, to continue to deny Putin a victory on the battlefield,\u201d said Sullivan.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd then second, he has to recognize that the costs have mounted to such a degree that that he has to go to the table and do a real deal, not the kind of deal he\u2019s proposed so far.\u201d<\/p>\n Putin has said that a primary reason for aggression against Ukraine<\/a> was to prevent it from joining NATO. Most western Russia specialists are highly skeptical of that claim.<\/p>\n