\n How likely it is that Quintessa starts in the Group
\n 1 Howden Mile at Te Rapa today depends on who you ask.\n <\/p>\n
And that uncertainty sums up how many punters and trainers will feel heading into one of the biggest days of spring racing.<\/p>\n
Quintessa came from last to slingshot many of today\u2019s opponents in the Proisir Plate at Ellerslie three weeks ago and would be a logical chance under similar circumstances stepping up to 1600m today.<\/p>\n
But whether she even starts will depend on the track report this morning and potentially even whether it rains during today\u2019s star-studded meeting.<\/p>\n
The man who will ultimately make that decision is co-trainer Sam Bergerson and yesterday he wasn\u2019t exactly sounding like a trainer getting ready to plan a Group 1 celebration.<\/p>\n
\u201cShe is still a chance to start because while it is a Heavy 10 this afternoon [Friday] there is some heat in the air and some breeze so maybe it will get back to a Heavy 9,\u201d said Bergerson.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf that happens she might start but on a Heavy 10 that becomes very doubtful.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bergerson also has the option of late-scratching Quintessa if the track is rated a Heavy 9 in the morning but downgraded because of rain during the meeting.<\/p>\n
None of this will give punters a great degree of confidence the mare who won the first leg of the spring Triple Crown will be winning the second.<\/p>\n
Te Rapa track manager Bart Cowan was enjoying some sun yesterday and suggesting the track could sneak back to a Heavy 9 \u2013 but then it wouldn\u2019t take much to get back into the 10 range.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut looking at the forecast we might not get the bulk of any rain [on Saturday] until after 4pm,\u201d said Cowan, with the level of optimism that keeps track managers semi-sane.<\/p>\n
One man who has a foot in both camps, track walker and trainer, is Cambridge trainer Shaune Ritchie, who drove to Te Rapa on Friday afternoon to find out for himself what sort of conditions await his Howden runner Tuxedo.<\/p>\n
\u201cI was a bit surprised by how good the track was,\u201d Ritchie told the Herald.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was rated a 10 but it walked more like a 9 and unless they get heaps of rain I don\u2019t see it being a real deep-slog track.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think it will be okay and the inside will play well early but by the big race they could be coming toward the middle of the track looking for fresher ground.\u201d\u2028<\/p>\n
There are so many question marks over today\u2019s big race \u2013 most obviously who will handle the track \u2013 that Tuxedo comes into favour as an each-way play because he is harder to make a case against.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe will handle a heavy better than most and his wide draw probably doesn\u2019t matter as much now,\u201d said Ritchie.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat might help him the most is you find with those really good horses, a heavy track can take away that top 10% they have over the other horses and make it a more level playing field.\u201d <\/p>\n
That could be the case all day on a programme laced with top horses, many of them still fresh in their campaigns, as punting becomes an complex equation of how many percentage points you may dock Legarto, La Crique or El Vencedor for their perceived dislike of a really heavy track.<\/p>\n
Legarto loves Te Rapa enough that perhaps she can get away with it, La Crique rarely goes a back race, while Tuxedo and particularly Sterling Express come more sharply into focus as horses who have already proven they can win in the wet this spring. <\/p>\n
The Howden Mile punting strategy could sum up the day, with punters wise to stick to fit horses that are proven on at least soft tracks and should not be averse to backing 2-3 horses a race on a day, with plenty of decent prices likely.<\/p>\n
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald\u2019s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world\u2019s biggest horse racing carnivals.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"How likely it is that Quintessa starts in the Group 1 Howden Mile at Te Rapa today depends…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":453298,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4107],"tags":[152284,4376,5176,123014,152281,4923,14117,152283,9353,59343,49971,9697,254,9457,152280,20362,1071,36299,79,15967,152282,26339,75567,16,15,52308],"class_list":{"0":"post-453297","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-racing","8":"tag-1202pm","9":"tag-advice","10":"tag-and","11":"tag-bet","12":"tag-featuring","13":"tag-first","14":"tag-group","15":"tag-guineas","16":"tag-hawkes","17":"tag-howden","18":"tag-late","19":"tag-mile","20":"tag-on","21":"tag-play","22":"tag-punting","23":"tag-race","24":"tag-racing","25":"tag-rapa","26":"tag-sports","27":"tag-te","28":"tag-timberspan","29":"tag-track","30":"tag-tricky","31":"tag-uk","32":"tag-united-kingdom","33":"tag-wide"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115271770256070377","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/453297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=453297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/453297\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/453298"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=453297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=453297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=453297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}