CHI\u0218IN\u0102U, Moldova\u2014\u201cI\u2019ll be the happiest person in the world when Moldova joins the EU\u2026 you deserve a place in the European Union.\u201d<\/p>\n
Those were the words spoken by Marta Kos, the EU\u2019s commissioner for enlargement, on Moldovan Independence Day late last month. Perhaps more significant than the sentiment, however, was the recipient of her remarks: Emilian Cretu, one of Moldova\u2019s biggest influencers. During his visit to Brussels, Kos asked Cretu to pass on her message of European solidarity to his nearly 600,000 followers.<\/p>\n
Thanks to Cretu\u2019s popularity, the video was viewed more than 800,000 times \u2014 roughly a third of the country\u2019s 2.4 million population.<\/p>\n
The unorthodox social media push underscores the urgency with which Brussels is trying counter Russian interference here, with Moldovans set to go to the polls this Sunday in a race that could determine the country\u2019s European future.<\/p>\n
The stakes are so high that President Maia Sandu defined the ballot as the \u201cmost consequential in [Moldova\u2019s] history.\u201d That\u2019s because Sunday\u2019s elections will decide whether her pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) will hold on to power, propelling the former Soviet republic towards the West \u2014 or whether pro-Moscow forces will prevail, keeping the country firmly in Russia\u2019s orbit of influence.<\/p>\n
The PAS is locked in a competitive race with the Russia-friendly Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), led by former President Igor Dodon. Recent polling<\/a> showed BEP pulling ahead, with 33.4% of the vote, compared with PAS\u2019s 31.6%.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Kremlin is pouring hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes on both banks of the Nistru river and abroad,\u201d said<\/a> Sandu, speaking at a press conference on Monday. “People are intoxicated daily with lies. Hundreds of individuals are paid to provoke disorder, violence, and spread fear.”<\/p>\n More broadly, the EU has been contending with Russia\u2019s extensive efforts to destabilise the bloc\u2019s eastern neighborhood through vote-buying and online disinformation \u2014 just as the administration of US President Donald Trump cuts funding<\/a> for programmes designed to curb Russian influence.<\/p>\n Russian propaganda on steroids <\/strong><\/p>\n There is nothing new in Moscow relying on a plethora of disinformation techniques to sway the results of foreign ballots to its liking, especially in countries like Moldova that were once part of the Soviet Union. What\u2019s new, analysts say, is the scale of the resources being poured into Moldova\u2019s election.<\/p>\n \u201cThis interference is unprecedented \u2014 not only for Moldova, but for any other country,\u201d Valeriu Pa\u0219a, the head of WatchDog.md, a think tank tracking local disinformation, told The Parliament. \u201cNo country or organisation is fully prepared to face this form of hybrid warfare.\u201d According to Sandu, Russia has spent something approaching 1% of Moldova\u2019s GDP to influence the ballot, or \u20ac150 million.<\/p>\n A BBC investigation unveiled last week found<\/a> that a secret network tied to Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor has been spreading pro-Russian propaganda and fake news across social media, aimed at discrediting Sandu and weakening the country\u2019s pro-Western front.<\/p>\n Moscow has claimed that Sandu is a Western puppet, that PAS ultimately seeks to unite Moldova with Romania, and that the ruling party will rig the elections \u2014 just as pro-Russian forces alleged was the case in neighboring Romania<\/a> last year.<\/p>\n More than Russian cyber influence\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Nicu Popescu, a former foreign minister who\u2019s now a candidate on the PAS parliamentary list, told The Parliament that focusing exclusively on cyber disinformation would amount to \u201cmisdiagnosing\u201d the size of the problem.<\/p>\n \u201cRussian interference is much larger\u2026it\u2019s well beyond disinformation,\u201d he said, pointing to a myriad of tactics such as paying influencers, publishing propaganda books, setting up fake call centres and buying votes directly.<\/p>\n Popescu added that pro-Russian forces had also been preparing to ignite violence by providing military training to activists in Serbia and Bosnia.<\/p>\n Indeed, according to<\/a> documents reviewed by Bloomberg, Russia has been planning to recruit young men to stage violent protests during and after the vote. If Sandu\u2019s party were to win, Moscow-backed forces would claim the ballot was rigged.<\/p>\n Moldova’s cost-of-living woes <\/strong><\/p>\n Moldova\u2019s bid to join the European Union has been central to Sandu\u2019s campaign platform, But a worsening cost-of-living crisis, fueled by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 \u2014 which led to a drastic increase in food and energy prices \u2014 is now making it harder for pro-Western forces to convince Moldovan citizens that joining the bloc will translate into a better future.<\/p>\n \u201cThose who fall behind are vulnerable to disinformation or simply hold a critical stance towards the government, regardless of whether the criticism is reinforced or not by Russian sources,\u201d Denis Cenusa, a fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told The Parliament. <\/p>\n Historically one of the poorest countries in Europe, Moldova has seen its people struggle even more to make ends meet since the start of the war, given its economy was heavily tied to both Ukraine and Russia. According to a report<\/a> by the Norwegian Refugee Council, 5.9% of Moldova\u2019s gross domestic product was wiped out because of the war, while inflation soared to a peak of 34% in the immediate aftermath \u2014 exceeding levels seen in Ukraine. Moldova\u2019s current inflation hovers around<\/a> 7%.<\/p>\n In a bid to show the extent to which Moldova has benefited from the EU, the Popescu has been traveling through villages across the country, taking\u00a0 photographs of EU-bankrolled projects, such as playgrounds, bike lanes, garbage collection trucks, and sanitation projects to post on his Facebook account.<\/p>\n Moldova’s ultra-polarised election<\/strong><\/p>\n Since becoming Moldova\u2019s president in 2020, Sandu, a former World Bank economist, secured<\/a> EU candidate status for her country, along with Ukraine, in 2022, and has since carried out major reforms that have positioned Moldova as a front runner to join the EU club.<\/p>\n But CEPA\u2019s Cenusa noted that, with the country\u2019s population \u201cdivided along geopolitical and political lines,\u201d the prospect of a swift accession in 2028 \u201cdoes not significantly impact the majority of the population.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s why even Moldovans with pro-EU views fell short of supporting a key referendum on EU integration, he said, as many saw it as a \u201cpolitical opportunity for Maia Sandu\u2019s re-election.\u201d<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s referendum on whether to enshrine in the constitution a path towards EU membership passed with a\u00a0razor-thin margin<\/a> of 50.35% to 49.65%, mainly down to the country\u2019s pro-Western\u00a0 diaspora.<\/p>\n Still, Cenusa cautioned against the government\u2019s \u201calarmist\u201d view that a takeover by Russian sympathisers would leave Moldova entirely cut off from the West. Due to its strategic position between Romania and Ukraine, he argued, \u201cwhoever replaces the current government will need to continue dialogue with the EU.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n