He is a no-nonsense workaholic with famously unpolished manners; a billionaire, ex-communist former prime minister who calls himself \u201cTrumpist\u201d, admires Viktor Orb\u00e1n, and has spent his political career fighting conflict of interest claims.<\/p>\n
After four years in opposition, 71-year-old Andrej Babi\u0161<\/a>, the Czech Republic\u2019s seventh richest man with a net worth estimated by Forbes at $3.9bn (\u00a32.9bn), is eyeing a triumphant comeback, his party 10 points clear in the polls, its prospective vote share topping 30%.<\/p>\n \u201cI want to restore the management of the state to normal,\u201d Babi\u0161, a polarising leader whose previous premiership from 2017 to 2021 drew mass protests, said recently. \u201cPeople knew we got results. We managed the country like a company.\u201d<\/p>\n What worries critics and observers at home and abroad, however, is where his catch-all, populist promises may take him now; whether, like the US president whose style (if not policies) he so appreciates, his second term may make his first look tame.<\/p>\n Days before an election that the outgoing centre-right prime minister, Petr Fiala, has warned could determine whether the Czech Republic<\/a> \u201cremains firmly part of the west, or drifts off toward the east\u201d, some are sure the worst is yet to come.<\/p>\n \u201cIt certainly looks like he\u2019s going to win. We only hope he won\u2019t be able to form a government,\u201d said Venu\u0161e R\u00fddl, 68, a voter in the Prague suburb of Mod\u0159any, who was unpersuaded by Babi\u0161\u2019s promises to cut taxes, cap energy prices and lower the pension age.<\/p>\n Her husband, Rudolf, 70, agreed. \u201cWe don\u2019t believe Babi\u0161, and we don\u2019t trust him,\u201d he said. \u201cHe\u2019s a populist and he\u2019s out for himself. He showed it last time he was in government \u2013 why would this time be different? He would be bad for the country.\u201d<\/p>\n If the polls are to be believed, however, many do not share their pessimism. Jan, a smart 76-year-old former small business owner about 60 miles (100km) away in north Bohemia, is one of them. \u201cHe does things for ordinary people,\u201d he said. \u201cHe makes an effort for us: last time, he raised pensions, and lowered transport fares.\u201d<\/p>\n Babi\u0161 \u201cis not arrogant or snotty at all\u201d, Jan added. \u201cI\u2019ve met him. He keeps his promises. And I like that he surrounds himself with competent people.\u201d Vladimir Tykvart, 72, agreed critics had got the election frontrunner wrong.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s not pro-Russian \u2013 that\u2019s just nonsense,\u201d Tykvart said. \u201cHe\u2019s already been prime minister, and he didn\u2019t try make us like Russia, or Slovakia, or Hungary. And I don\u2019t believe for one moment he would lead us away from the EU or from Nato.\u201d<\/p>\n Babi\u0161 with Hungary\u2019s Viktor Orb\u00e1n in 2021. Photograph: David W \u010cern\u00fd\/Reuters<\/p>\n Quite where he would lead the country, however, is unclear. Babi\u0161, whose wealth comes from a sprawling empire of farming, food processing and fertiliser firms, started his Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO, meaning Yes in Czech) party in 2011.<\/p>\n Back then, it was a centrist anti-corruption movement. It has since swung left, to capture disillusioned, mainly older social democrats, often in poorer rural areas, and then radically right, in search of the burgeoning conservative vote.<\/p>\n Part of the pro-EU liberal group in the European parliament during his previous mandate, ANO now sits with \u2013 indeed, co-founded with Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Fidesz \u2013 the Patriots for Europe<\/a> group of the EU\u2019s most far-right, populist parties, including Marine Le Pen\u2019s National Rally (RN), Matteo Salvini\u2019s League, and Geert Wilders\u2019 Party for Freedom (PVV).<\/p>\n In some ways, Babi\u0161 now seems at home in that grouping: he has pledged to combat the EU migration pact, even though it will not oblige Czechs to accept people seeking asylum, and the bloc\u2019s green deal, despite helping the European Council approve it when he was Czech prime minister in 2019.<\/p>\n He has also said he wants to end the shells-for-Ukraine \u201cCzech initiative\u201d<\/a>, prompting many observers to suggest he would join the EU\u2019s awkward squad of Orb\u00e1n and Slovakia\u2019s populist prime minister, Robert Fico, in resisting future aid to Kyiv.<\/p>\n Others are not so sure. They say Babi\u0161\u2019s politics are pragmatic, not ideological, and he is unlikely to pick a serious fight with Brussels as long as the country needs EU funds and his businesses benefit from the bloc.<\/p>\n \u201cFor Babi\u0161, ideology is always a figleaf,\u201d said Ji\u0159\u00ed Pehe, who headed the former Czech president V\u00e1clav Havel\u2019s political department in the 1990s and is now director of New York University in Prague.<\/p>\n \u201cHe doesn\u2019t mince his words. He\u2019s also very good indeed at making promises, and at being ambivalent on where we are internationally. But he won\u2019t be as radical as either Orb\u00e1n or Fico. He\u2019ll obstruct, make a lot of noise at home \u2013 then he\u2019ll sign.\u201d<\/p>\n Much of the businessman\u2019s desire to return to power was just that, Pehe said: \u201cHe\u2019s made billions, he wants to be important, he loves being pictured with world leaders. He\u2019s not going to lead a frontal attack on Czech democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n Few supporters seem concerned by the trial Babi\u0161 faces for an alleged $2m EU subsidy fraud from 2007, when he allegedly took Stork Nest, a farm and hotel complex outside Prague, out of his conglomerate to make it eligible for a small business subsidy.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n Sign up to This is Europe<\/p>\n The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans \u2013 from identity to economics to the environment<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n Babi\u0161, who has been twice acquitted of the charges in two previous trials, has always denied wrongdoing, describing the allegations as politically motivated. The Prague high court earlier this year overturned the most recent acquittal and ordered a retrial.<\/p>\n Pehe said any radical shifts under Babi\u0161 2.0 would be hindered by the Czech senate, which will for years be dominated by the outgoing centre-right government. It can veto electoral law and constitutional changes, and must approve judges of the constitutional court.<\/p>\n The president, Petr Pavel, who beat Babi\u0161 to that role in 2023, has also pledged not to approve any ministers who back the Czech Republic leaving the EU or Nato.<\/p>\n Which is not to say a Babi\u0161 victory \u2013 assuming he manages to form a government, which is not a given \u2013 would have no consequences for Czech democracy. For one thing, ANO wants to abolish the licence fee for public radio and TV, bringing them under state funding.<\/p>\n That, his critics say, would inevitably threaten editorial independence, and increase vulnerability to political pressure. The party would also look to politicise civil service appointments, and to \u201cbring more transparency\u201d to NGO funding.<\/p>\n Such policies, familiar from Slovakia and Hungary, are clear red flags, said B\u00e1ra St\u00e1rek of the youth democracy outreach organisation Thanks That We Can.<\/p>\n But while Babi\u0161 \u201cmay not be the first choice for democracy supporters\u201d, she argued, the country \u201cwill not go 100% the way of Slovakia or Hungary. We have been through extremes, and we are wary of parties taking away our freedoms.\u201d<\/p>\n Donald Trump and Melania Trump, right, meet the then Czech prime minister, Babi\u0161, and his wife, Monika Babi\u0161ov\u00e1, in the White House in March 2019. Photograph: Evan Vucci\/AP<\/p>\n Most observers agree, however, that while Babi\u0161 himself may not want to head down a Trumpian path, much may depend on those he governs with.<\/p>\n ANO is unlikely to win a majority in the 200-seat parliament, and will need partners, either in a formal coalition or as part of a looser confidence and supply arrangement propping up a minority government \u2013 which, said Martin Bucht\u00edk of the Stem research institute, Babi\u0161 would prefer \u201cso as not to be ideologically tied down\u201d.<\/p>\n The strongest pressure would come from the pro-Russian, far-right SPD and the far-left Sta\u010dilo! parties, both of which are campaigning on calls for the Czech Republic to leave Nato and the EU, and from the anti-green, anti-establishment Motorists party. Any deal, formal or informal, could take weeks or even months to finalise.<\/p>\n In Prague\u2019s Bud\u011bjovick\u00e1 shopping centre, Petre, 28, a bank employee, was resigned. \u201cANO will finish first,\u201d he said. \u201cI think the best we can hope for is a minority government, where Babi\u0161 has to negotiate support bill by bill. I do feel let down.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"He is a no-nonsense workaholic with famously unpolished manners; a billionaire, ex-communist former prime minister who calls himself…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":470078,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[12,26],"class_list":{"0":"post-470077","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-world"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115308130736485915","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=470077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470077\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/470078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=470077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=470077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=470077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}