While we didn\u2019t get the jobs report today, the ADP private payrolls numbers earlier in the week suggest the jobs market continues to cool, while the job openings numbers within the JOLTS report show there are now more unemployed people in America than there are job vacancies. At the same time, a slowing quits rate \u2013 a measure of job turnover \u2013 is pointing to wage growth dropping below 3% in early 2026. This combination of sub-trend growth and weakening jobs numbers will, we believe, drive the Fed\u2019s interest rate decisions.<\/p>\n
There are lingering concerns about tariffs pushing up prices and inflation, with today\u2019s ISM prices paid series doing nothing to dispel them \u2013 it rose to 69.4 from 69.2, so well above the 50 break-even level. However, tariffs have come through more slowly than feared in the key inflation metrics the Fed focuses on, of CPI and the PCE deflator. As such, the balance of risks to the Fed\u2019s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment justifies the central bank moving monetary policy closer to neutral with 25bp interest rate cuts at the October and December FOMC meetings expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While we didn\u2019t get the jobs report today, the ADP private payrolls numbers earlier in the week suggest…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":473482,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5311],"tags":[49,978,659],"class_list":{"0":"post-473481","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-states","8":"tag-united-states","9":"tag-us","10":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115315767677430157","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/473481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=473481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/473481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/473482"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=473481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=473481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=473481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}