Problem<\/p>\n
Vladimir Putin has finally said the quiet part out loud. For the first time since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he has explicitly blamed<\/a> Europe for the war, stating<\/a>: \u201cSo far we haven\u2019t been able to stop the hostilities, but the responsibility for that relies not on the majority [of countries] but on the minority, first and foremost Europe, who continues to escalate the conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n In this year\u2019s Valdai Club speech, which sets the tone for Russia\u2019s foreign policy, Putin hinted at three big shifts in policy towards his main adversary. First, he accused the EU of militarisation and anti-Russian policies which he said threaten its security and domestic stability. He vowed to respond by stepping up military pressure through provocations and by expanding Russia\u2019s arsenal.<\/p>\n Second, his speech made clear Moscow\u2019s support for Europe\u2019s anti-establishment politicians who prioritise \u201cnational issues\u201d, citing far-right parties in France and Germany, and giving a shoutout to Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban. For the Russian president, these political movements are a chance to fracture EU unity\u2014on Russia and beyond\u2014and to ease sanctions. And in case these parties need a hand, Putin spoke of the importance of \u201cinfluence on the political consciousness of a potential adversary\u2019s country\u201d\u2014otherwise known as information warfare. It was an implicit recognition of existing Russian influence operations and a promise to keep them running.<\/p>\n Third, Putin used the example of US president Donald Trump as a leader who reoriented his country away from the \u201cglobalist agenda\u201d and towards resolving domestic issues\u2014just as Europeans should be doing. Putin praised Trump and his politics at least six times during his speech and Q&A, suggesting Putin is doubling down on his efforts to get Washington on board with a normalisation with Russia that would sideline Europe.<\/p>\n Solution<\/p>\n These are not empty words. It comes as Russian drones<\/a> and jets<\/a> are increasingly violating EU airspace. The EU, via NATO, should continue investing in eastern border defence and rapid reaction forces, anticipating an increase in incidents. Similarly, the EU should be ready for Russian interference and attempts to undermine its defence build-up.<\/p>\n