{"id":475804,"date":"2025-10-05T12:06:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T12:06:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/475804\/"},"modified":"2025-10-05T12:06:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T12:06:16","slug":"spx-ukraine-war-escalation-a-key-risk-in-q4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/475804\/","title":{"rendered":"SPX- Ukraine War Escalation a Key Risk in Q4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">It\u2019s impossible to predict external events in advance, but the chances of an escalation in the Ukraine war increased recently. And escalation of the war in Ukraine could fuel a fourth-quarter correction for the\u00a0<strong>S&amp;P 500 Index<\/strong>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/spx\" data-ylk=\"slk:^SPX;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">^SPX<\/a>), suggests\u00a0<strong>Ivan Martchev<\/strong>, investment strategist at\u00a0<strong>Navellier &amp; Associates.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><strong>To get more articles and chart analysis from MoneyShow, subscribe to our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyshow.com\/newsletters\/?scode=065526\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Top Pros\u2019 Top Picks newsletter here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Top Pros\u2019 Top Picks newsletter here<\/a>.) <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">While I think the S&amp;P will make it to 7,000 by year end, I also think it is unrealistic for this to happen without a correction. I hope the war does not escalate, as the downside of such an event would be impossible to estimate. It is directly proportional to how big the escalation is.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">But the chances increased dramatically as President Trump declared that Ukraine can push the Russians to pre-invasion borders. That\u2019s a major shift in his policy stance. Since it is clear that Ukraine cannot do that by their forces alone, it requires the entrance of third-party countries on behalf of Ukraine to deliver such an outcome.<\/p>\n<p>    <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"SP500 Monthly Return Chart\" loading=\"eager\" height=\"315\" width=\"526\" class=\"yf-1gfnohs loader\"\/> SP500 Monthly Return Chart      <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The escalation could take place due to a seemingly minor event. The Russians have been violating NATO airspace with their drones and jets of late. All it takes is for one NATO country to take down a Russian jet in some marginal violation of airspace \u2013 like Turkey did in 2015 during the Syrian conflict. The Russians let it go back then, but I don\u2019t believe they will be so forgiving this time around.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><strong>See also:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyshow.com\/\/articles\/dailyguru-64457\/ctbi-a-regional-bank-with-solid-dividend-growth\/?scode=046865\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:CTBI: A Regional Bank with Solid Dividend Growth;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">CTBI: A Regional Bank with Solid Dividend Growth<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">I hope that we have no escalation in Ukraine so that we can focus on economic issues, which are easier to forecast. I think the glass remains half full when it comes to the stock market, even though the market did not produce any downside seasonality in September.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><strong>More From MoneyShow.com:<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s impossible to predict external events in advance, but the chances of an escalation in the Ukraine war&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":475805,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[157963,2000,299,157964,1551,657],"class_list":{"0":"post-475804","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-directly-proportional","9":"tag-eu","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-moneyshow","12":"tag-president-trump","13":"tag-ukraine"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115321476460368839","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=475804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/475805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=475804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=475804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=475804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}