{"id":479919,"date":"2025-10-07T07:52:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T07:52:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/479919\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T07:52:15","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T07:52:15","slug":"david-lynch-highlights-worrying-liverpool-statistic-which-shows-clear-regression-from-2024-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/479919\/","title":{"rendered":"David Lynch highlights worrying Liverpool statistic which shows clear regression from 2024\/25"},"content":{"rendered":"

David Lynch has highlighted a worrying statistic which shows significant regression from Liverpool in one aspect compared to their Premier League-winning campaign.<\/p>\n

Although the Reds sit only one point off leaders Arsenal going into the October international break, Arne Slot has a number of concerns to address ahead of our next fixture against Manchester United in 12 days\u2019 time.<\/p>\n

Jamie Redknapp has pointed to the full-back positions as a standout \u2018problem\u2019<\/a> for the champions, although the defensive unit as a whole hasn\u2019t been anywhere near as sturdy as last season, and the numbers are there to show it.<\/p>\n

Lynch laments Liverpool\u2019s defensive decline<\/p>\n

In his latest\u00a0Substack<\/a> column, Lynch pinpointed just how porous Liverpool have been at the back in the current campaign compared to 2024\/25.<\/p>\n

He wrote:\u00a0\u2018Make no mistake, Liverpool haven\u2019t been unlucky to end up with the 10th best defensive record (nine conceded) in the Premier League so far this season.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Their 7.9 expected goals against are roughly in line with that figure, and in giving up 1.1xG per game they have declined significantly from last season.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Up until the 34th game of the 2024-25 campaign \u2013 when the title was won and there was little left to play for \u2013 the Reds were conceding just 0.85xG per fixture on average.\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Article<\/p>\n

(Photo by Tom Dulat\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Liverpool\u2019s defensive woes are unsustainable<\/p>\n

Not everyone is a believer in xG, but the much-derided statistic offers a barometer of the overall complexion of a football match, so for Liverpool to have declined so sharply in terms of expected goals against isn\u2019t something that Slot can ignore.<\/p>\n

Lynch highlighted elsewhere in his article<\/a> that, during the current run of three successive defeats in all competitions, LFC<\/a> have an xG against of 5.7, so it\u2019s not as if those results have been a smash-and-grab despite two of them seeing stoppage-time goals deprive the Reds of a draw.<\/p>\n

Were it not for a string of brilliant saves from Alisson Becker<\/a> away to Crystal Palace, the margin of defeat at Selhurst Park would\u2019ve been far wider than 2-1.<\/p>\n

Setting aside the xG for a moment, look at how many goals Liverpool have actually shipped in their first seven Premier League games this season \u2013 nine. At the equivalent stage of last term, they\u2019d only been breached twice.<\/p>\n

In fact, it wasn\u2019t until 4 December that we conceded for the ninth time in the top flight in 2024\/25, and that was in our 14th match of the campaign (3-3 v Newcastle). It\u2019s taken half the time to reach that same concession tally this time around.<\/p>\n

Yes, there have been changes in personnel and tactics which go some way towards explaining the drop-off, but that alone doesn\u2019t excuse how much more defensively vulnerable the Reds have become in the space of just a few months.<\/p>\n

Quite simply, the current average of conceding three goals to every one that Arsenal have let in<\/a> cannot continue throughout the season.<\/p>\n

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