{"id":480490,"date":"2025-10-07T13:35:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T13:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/480490\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T13:35:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T13:35:11","slug":"the-shutdown-meant-no-jobs-report-carlyles-analysis-shows-it-would-have-been-pretty-bad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/480490\/","title":{"rendered":"The shutdown meant no jobs report. Carlyle’s analysis shows it would have been pretty bad"},"content":{"rendered":"

Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida. <\/p>\n

Joe Raedle | Getty Images<\/p>\n

Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.<\/p>\n

The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 from the month, which would be even less than the 22,000 gain in August<\/a> reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.<\/p>\n

With the BLS shuttered and data releases suspended<\/a> until the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to provide alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is heading.<\/p>\n

Carlyle’s data jibes somewhat with other releases showing little hiring growth.<\/p>\n

Last week, payrolls processing firm ADP reported<\/a> that a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, though that included a reduction stemming from adjustments to BLS revisions.<\/p>\n

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs declined in September, the level of planned hiring<\/a> for firms hit its lowest since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the impact from the global financial crisis.<\/p>\n

To be sure, while Carlyle’s data showed anemic payroll gains, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.<\/p>\n

The firm said underlying gross domestic product growth was running at 2.7% annualized pace in September while business investment accelerated 4.8% on a three-month average annual rate. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy declined 3.8% while services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%.<\/p>\n

Carlyle said it derived its data from its “expansive global portfolio” that includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.<\/p>\n

Though the firm saw weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its “underlying job growth” tracker indicated a gain of 80,000 positions in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in 10 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":480491,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3092],"tags":[1500,5464,51,3085,159492,4750,1700,33988,897,8579,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-480490","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jobs","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breaking-news-economy","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-business-news","12":"tag-carlyle-group-inc","13":"tag-economic-events","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-employment-figures","16":"tag-jobs","17":"tag-personnel","18":"tag-uk","19":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115333151145039328","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/480490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=480490"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/480490\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/480491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=480490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=480490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=480490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}