{"id":486230,"date":"2025-10-09T17:45:38","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T17:45:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/486230\/"},"modified":"2025-10-09T17:45:38","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T17:45:38","slug":"four-scenarios-for-the-next-chapter-in-russias-war-against-ukraine-meduza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/486230\/","title":{"rendered":"Four scenarios for the next chapter in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine \u2014 Meduza"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"SimpleBlock-module_p__7aRnT  SimpleBlock-module_center__D1CsV\">Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of\u00a0Ukraine has now passed the three-and-a-half-year mark, and there is\u00a0still no\u00a0end in\u00a0sight. The Trump administration\u2019s recent push to\u00a0negotiate a\u00a0ceasefire ground to\u00a0a\u00a0halt in\u00a0early September, after Ukraine\u2019s Volodymyr Zelensky <a href=\"https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/news\/2025\/09\/04\/zelensky-rejects-putin-s-moscow-invitation-if-you-want-no-meeting-invite-me-there\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rejected<\/a> Vladimir Putin\u2019s proposal to\u00a0meet in\u00a0Moscow, dismissing the invitation as\u00a0a\u00a0sign that his Russian counterpart has no\u00a0desire to\u00a0negotiate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"SimpleBlock-module_p__7aRnT  SimpleBlock-module_center__D1CsV\">Meanwhile, on\u00a0the <a href=\"https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2025\/10\/06\/a-high-stakes-gamble\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">battlefield<\/a> in\u00a0Ukraine, Russian troops are continuing their offensive in\u00a0central Donbas. While Ukrainian forces have succeeded in\u00a0slowing their advance, this has come at\u00a0the cost of\u00a0Kyiv\u2019s defenses elsewhere, creating vulnerable gaps between frontline positions that Russian forces can slip through. With the front line becoming increasingly fluid and peace talks stalled, Russia has also continued to\u00a0launch deadly missile and drone attacks on\u00a0Ukrainian cities, targeting the country\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/10\/05\/world\/europe\/russia-ukraine-strikes-energy-lviv.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">energy grid<\/a> ahead of\u00a0the approaching winter months.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"SimpleBlock-module_p__7aRnT  SimpleBlock-module_center__D1CsV\">By\u00a0all appearances, Putin believes that if\u00a0Russia\u2019s military keeps pushing forward, it\u00a0will eventually outlast and overpower Ukraine. But how much longer can the Kremlin sustain its war machine?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"SimpleBlock-module_p__7aRnT  SimpleBlock-module_center__D1CsV\">In\u00a0a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapter\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">new report<\/a> for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), <strong>senior fellow Maria Snegovaya <\/strong>and Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program director Max Bergmann<strong> <\/strong>break down the mounting costs of\u00a0Russia\u2019s war effort and outline four plausible scenarios for the war\u2019s next chapter. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/people\/maria-snegovaya\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Dr. Maria Snegovaya<\/a> joins this episode of\u00a0The Naked Pravda to\u00a0discuss their analysis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"SimpleBlock-module_p__7aRnT  SimpleBlock-module_center__D1CsV\"><strong>Time stamps for this episode: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"ListBlock-module_root__dqomP  ListBlock-module_ul__bgHlv ListBlock-module_center__bEBN-\" data-testid=\"list-block\">\n<li><strong>(2:05)<\/strong>\u00a0The current state of\u00a0the Russia\u2013Ukraine war<\/li>\n<li><strong>(4:49)<\/strong>\u00a0Russia\u2019s war strategy and unchanging goals<\/li>\n<li><strong>(8:03)\u00a0<\/strong>How sustainable is\u00a0this war for the Kremlin?<\/li>\n<li><strong>(13:12)\u00a0<\/strong>How Russia is\u00a0replenishing its military losses<\/li>\n<li><strong>(17:30)<\/strong>\u00a0Potential scenarios for the war\u2019s future<\/li>\n<li><strong>(26:55)\u00a0<\/strong>Strategies for Ukraine and Western allies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a data-testid=\"related-rich-block\" class=\"RelatedRichBlock-module_root__-SEe7 RelatedRichBlock-module_isRich__Z2kQ8 RelatedRichBlock-module_hasGradient__s5Krh RelatedRichBlock-module_desktop__EaPOr RelatedRichBlock-module_center__KANd- RelatedRichBlock-module_light__aJLn7\" href=\"https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2025\/10\/06\/a-high-stakes-gamble\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A high-stakes gamble Ukraine has successfully slowed Russia\u2019s advance in\u00a0central Donbas \u2014\u00a0but at\u00a0the cost of\u00a0its defenses elsewhere<\/a><a data-testid=\"related-rich-block\" class=\"RelatedRichBlock-module_root__-SEe7 RelatedRichBlock-module_isRich__Z2kQ8 RelatedRichBlock-module_hasGradient__s5Krh RelatedRichBlock-module_mobile__N-G4U RelatedRichBlock-module_center__KANd- RelatedRichBlock-module_light__aJLn7\" href=\"https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2025\/10\/06\/a-high-stakes-gamble\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A high-stakes gamble Ukraine has successfully slowed Russia\u2019s advance in\u00a0central Donbas \u2014\u00a0but at\u00a0the cost of\u00a0its defenses elsewhere<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of\u00a0Ukraine has now passed the three-and-a-half-year mark, and there is\u00a0still no\u00a0end in\u00a0sight. The Trump administration\u2019s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":486231,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[2000,299,160823,21463,12,26462,332,7661,2044,657,771],"class_list":{"0":"post-486230","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-eu","9":"tag-europe","10":"tag-meduza","11":"tag-military-recruitment","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-public-opinion","14":"tag-russia","15":"tag-russia-ukraine-war","16":"tag-russian-economy","17":"tag-ukraine","18":"tag-war"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115345458889294557","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/486230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=486230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/486230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/486231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=486230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=486230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=486230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}