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<\/p>\nMILAN \u2014 NATO officials have been tracking a decrease in Russia\u2019s naval presence in the Mediterranean, which officials have attributed to readiness problems and the Baltic Sea and High North regions demanding greater attention in Moscow\u2019s eyes.<\/p>\n
Gone are the days when Russia positioned one of its largest naval task forces in the Mediterranean, following escalating tensions in 2018 in Syria, deploying at least two submarines and ten surface ships. <\/p>\n
According to a NATO official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, these numbers have dropped in recent months, with the Russian Navy averaging only a few maritime assets in the region.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is our assessment that the Russian Navy, which is already resource-constraint regarding where to place its assets, is experiencing force-generation challenges and dilemmas currently affecting their posture in the Mediterranean sea,\u201d the representative told Defense News.<\/p>\n
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The official noted two key factors that have exacerbated these difficulties: the loss of Russia\u2019s strategic port in Tartus, Syria, and NATO\u2019s bolstered presence in the Baltic and High North regions.<\/p>\n
In January, the new Syrian government terminated a long-standing agreement that enabled Russian presence into the country. Established in 1971 under a Soviet-Syrian lease agreement, the Tartus port served for decades as Russia\u2019s main refuel naval facility in the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n
Being deprived of that naval base has affected the Russian Navy\u2019s operational capability as it no longer has access to a close-by replenishment and repair center.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith the loss of that port, now, for example, if they bring a Kilo-class submarine in the area, they have to bring it all the way down there from one of their northern or baltic ports \u2013 being able to sustain operations is definitely more challenging,\u201d the NATO official said.<\/p>\n
At the end of September, the Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk was spotted surfacing off the Strait of Gibraltar due to several reported technical issues related to a leak. The submarine subsequently appeared to be making its way to the Baltic Sea for repairs the following week.<\/p>\n
The city of Novorossiysk is currently the closest major Russian Black Sea port to Mediterranean waters \u2013 but to access it, forces must transit long-distances through Turkish-controlled straits.<\/p>\n
The Kremlin also possesses the Baltiysk port, located within the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast, situated on the Baltic Sea coast, but reaching it from the Mediterranean would require even more travel and crossings.<\/p>\n
A Baltic shift <\/p>\n
With the decline of its regional influence and the launch of NATO\u2019s large-scale deployment to the Baltic Sea, Moscow has shifted a good chunk of its focus to this location.<\/p>\n
The military alliance kicked off its Baltic Sentry mission in January to provide enhanced protection of critical underwater infrastructure and bolster its sea surveillance with the support of frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, drones, and national surveillance assets.<\/p>\n
The NATO official said that Russia has tried to match this increased presence by sending more resources to protect its own interests and shipping in these waters.<\/p>\n
While the Russian Navy does not provide exact numbers of how many ships make up its Baltic Fleet, an open-source report published this year by the International Institute for Strategic Studies assessed that it includes roughly 69 vessels, including older, smaller boats.<\/p>\n