{"id":491483,"date":"2025-10-11T17:06:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T17:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/491483\/"},"modified":"2025-10-11T17:06:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T17:06:11","slug":"california-new-york-key-to-whether-us-sees-recession-economist-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/491483\/","title":{"rendered":"California, New York key to whether US sees recession, economist says"},"content":{"rendered":"

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What we know: How savings could protect your family in a recession<\/p>\n

This is the strategy and amount of savings that protect your family in a recession. Here’s what we know now.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re confused about whether the U.S. economy in a recession<\/a>, near a recession<\/a> or doing OK, you\u2019re not alone.<\/p>\n

Turns out the answer may depend on where you live, according to Moody\u2019s Analytics economist Mark Zandi.<\/p>\n

Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia, which contribute about a third of U.S. economic activity, are already in a recession, his analysis shows. Another 13 states, comprising roughly another third of the economy, are treading water, and the remaining 16 are growing, he said.<\/p>\n

Even if the nation isn\u2019t in a recession, if you live in one of the states that\u2019s either in a recession or on the edge of one, you\u2019re probably already feeling a pinch.<\/p>\n

\u201cState-level data makes it clear why the U.S. economy is on the edge of recession<\/a>.\u201d Zandi said.<\/p>\n

Why are some states in or near recession?<\/p>\n

Most of the states in or near recession produce goods, Zandi said. Agriculture, mining and light manufacturing<\/a> are frail, and a weak transportation sector is exacerbating that, he said.<\/p>\n

But the \u201cDC area stands out due to government job cuts<\/a>,\u201d Zandi said. The federal government is one of six industries he sees in recession. Others include transportation and distribution, agriculture, mining, manufacturing and construction.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo surprise those industries struggling the most are most impacted by the higher tariffs, highly restrictive immigration policy<\/a>, and the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)<\/a> cuts,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

New England states generally tend to have weaker economies than the rest of the country, even in the best of times, because of slow population growth, Zandi said.<\/p>\n

A few states like Georgia and Illinois are also expensive to live in, which has hindered an increase in population, he said.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s propping up other states?<\/p>\n

States like Texas and Florida generally always fare well, partly because of their low taxes, Zandi said.<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania surprised him on the upside. \u201cIt\u2019s doing well because of health care<\/a> and education,\u201d he said. \u201cPhiladelphia and Pittsburgh are driving the train.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other growing industries include technology, state and local government and real estate, he said.<\/p>\n

Why are California and New York the states to watch?<\/p>\n

California and New York have staved off recession but they\u2019re walking the line, Zandi said. If either one falls into recession, Zandi predicts, it\u2019ll take the rest of the nation with it.<\/p>\n

Together, the two states account for more than a fifth of U.S. economic growth. \u201cTheir stability is crucial for the national economy to avoid a downturn,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

What are the chances of recession in the United States?<\/p>\n

Most economists don\u2019t expect a full-blown recession, defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research<\/a> as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months. The bureau is the official arbiter of when a recession occurs.<\/p>\n

Zandi also said he expects to avoid a national recession, but only by a whisper<\/a>. \u201cFiscal and monetary policy should help and win the day,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But just missing a recession isn\u2019t likely to feel good to many Americans, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe firewall is layoffs,\u201d Zandi said. \u201cThey remain very low. As long as they stay low, it should be fine but uncomfortable because companies have stopped hiring<\/a>, cut hours. They\u2019re doing everything but layoffs, and it\u2019ll be uncomfortable until hiring resumes.\u201d<\/p>\n

With 70% of the country now in or nearing recession, Americans are already feeling gloomier. The University of Michigan\u2019s survey of consumers<\/a> showed sentiment dropped in September from the prior month \u201cacross a broad swath of the population, across groups by age, income, and education. \u2026Consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is the economy out of the woods?<\/p>\n

After stronger-than-expected economic growth of 3.8% in the April to June period, most economists revised their outlook up. Wells Fargo economists said strong consumer spending continues to support the economy.<\/p>\n

But Zandi still sees a precarious situation with many risks lurking that could flip the economy. He said they include:<\/p>\n