The SNP<\/a>\u2019s fresh push for Scottish independence<\/a> could further boost Reform\u2019s popularity among pro-union voters who \u201chate\u201d the idea, say political experts.<\/p>\n Sir Keir Starmer has been warned that Reform\u2019s surge could see Scottish Labour\u2019s vote squeezed on both the left and right at the May 2026 election. <\/p>\n New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s chances of ousting the SNP in Edinburgh have been significantly hurt by a surge in support for Nigel Farage\u2019s party in Scotland over the past year<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Norstad survey puts Farage\u2019s party up on 20 per cent in the constituency vote, while Anas Sarwar\u2019s party fell to 19 per cent.<\/p>\n The SNP are out in front on 34 per cent \u2013 roughly in line with polls over the past six months. But that kind of result would leave the party short of the majority leader John Swinney so badly wants, say pollsters.<\/p>\n SNP members backed Swinney\u2019s plan to achieve another Scottish independence referendum at the party\u2019s conference in Aberdeen.<\/p>\n The First Minister\u2019s strategy is to declare a mandate for a second referendum so long his party wins a majority of seats \u2013 65 or more \u2013 at the 2026 Holyrood election.<\/p>\n Independence push \u2018opens up space\u2019 for Reform<\/p>\n Polling expert Mark Diffley said Reform they could be the \u201cbeneficiaries\u201d if the SNP makes Scottish independence a major issue in the election campaign.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is a danger [for the SNP] in coming across as obsessed with something [independence] that is not most voters\u2019 priority at the moment,\u201d said the founder of The Diffley Partnership consultancy.<\/p>\n \u201cIt opens up a space for others \u2013 the Tories and Reform \u2013 to make capital out of it, arguing that the SNP is out of touch.\u201d<\/p>\n Allan Faulds, who runs the Ballot Box Scotland poll tracker, said Reform were poised to win many of the voters who \u201chate\u201d the SNP and the idea of independence.<\/p>\n \u201cSome voters are still interested in which party is the strongest pro-union party \u2013 strongest is in terms of message, strongest in terms of giving the SNP a bloody nose, as well as doing well in the polls. Reform has already won a lot of those people over.\u201d<\/p>\n Prof James Mitchell, Edinburgh University\u2019s professor of public policy, also warned that the SNP\u2019s so-called \u201cindyref2\u201d push \u201ccould help Reform\u201d by boosting support among pro-union hardliners.<\/p>\n However, Prof Mitchell said the problem for Reform is that many Scots are \u201ctotally fed-up with the independence question\u201d and are more focused on public services, the economy and immigration.<\/p>\n So even if Reform attracts a lot of anti-SNP voters anxious about independence \u201cit would be foolish for Reform to actually talk about it [independence] too much\u201d, he added.<\/p>\n Diffley added: \u201cIt\u2019s what Reform are saying on immigration that appears to be bringing voters over to them at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n Reform\u2019s Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr, who defected from the Tories, said: \u201cThe SNP banging on about their separation obsession \u2013 it will benefit Reform, because we can argue why want to remain part of the UK.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBut the majority of the public is so tuned out from the independence question. So it\u2019s not going to be a central focus for us or our manifesto.\u201d<\/p>\n Last month\u2019s Norstat poll found that 56 per cent of Scots think immigration is are too high, and 60 per cent backed the idea of mass detention and deportation of illegal immigrants.<\/p>\n![\"File](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SEI_269226473.jpg\")
John Swinney has been warned Reform stands to gain from anti-independence sentiment (Photo: Jane Barlow\/PA Wire)<\/p>\n![\"Prime](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SEI_241105257.jpg\")
Caption: Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (left) with Keir Starmer (Photo: Jane Barlow\/PA Wire)<\/p>\n