{"id":511562,"date":"2025-10-19T09:14:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-19T09:14:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/511562\/"},"modified":"2025-10-19T09:14:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-19T09:14:14","slug":"britons-told-to-prepare-for-widespread-war-in-europe-within-three-to-four-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/511562\/","title":{"rendered":"Britons told to prepare for \u2018widespread\u2019 war in Europe within three to four years"},"content":{"rendered":"

The British public should be prepared for \u201cwidespread war in Europe\u201d within the next three to four years, military experts have said.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s increasingly audacious incursions into Eastern Europe<\/a> risk spilling over into an all-out \u201chot\u201d conflict that engages Nato, while Vladimir Putin\u2019s current \u201cgrey war\u201d activity of sabotage, cyber attacks and disinformation is expected to be \u201con steroids\u201d before the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

The chairman of the UK\u2019s National Preparedness Commission, Lord Harris, told The i Paper that Britain needed to be better prepared, both militarily and across society, for a widespread conflict of this nature happening in the next few years.<\/p>\n

New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.<\/p>\n

This includes stockpiling emergency supplies to be used in the event of a war or major attack on critical national infrastructure, such as water, electricity or transport networks.<\/p>\n

Harris, a Labour peer, said Britons needed to prepare for their lives \u201cbeing changed or likely to be changed in the foreseeable future\u201d, including having 72 hours worth of provisions if there was a major attack on infrastructure or a power cut caused by a hostile state<\/p>\n

He suggested that the Government should make its \u201cPrepare\u201d website \u2013 which offers advice on readiness for emergencies such as floods and power cuts \u2013 more \u201cin your face\u201d and run regular ad campaigns on radio, TV and social media, as well as lessons for schoolchildren.<\/p>\n

Russia is \u2018committed to havoc\u2019<\/p>\n

With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine<\/a>, over the past two months Russia has ramped up incursions of drones and fighter jets into other European nations \u2013 with suspicious drone activity as far west as Denmark.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum warned<\/a> Moscow was \u201ccommitted to causing havoc and destruction\u201d around the world, and that British security services and police had in the last year \u201cdisrupted a steady stream of surveillance plots with hostile intent, aimed at individuals Russian leaders perceive as their enemies\u201d.<\/p>\n

Giving evidence to Parliament\u2019s joint committee on the national security strategy earlier this week, Harris said of the threat from Russia: \u201cI am quite struck by the fact that, whenever I talk to people in our military, they are expecting potentially widespread war in Europe within a very short time frame \u2013 three or four years.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"ConservativeFormer defence minister Tobias Ellwood (Photo: Isabel Infantes\/AFP\/Getty) <\/p>\n

Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood told The i Paper this assessment \u201cfits\u201d with the conversations he had had with military people, but predicted it would be more likely \u201cgrey-zone rather than direct conflict\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ellwood said this would be \u201cwhat we have now but on steroids: more cyber attacks, cutting undersea cables, assignations, incursions, and economic challenges as we fight over energy and mineral access, as well as proxy wars in Africa\u201d.<\/p>\n

Referring to the fire at an electricity substation near Heathrow in March, which led to the closure of the airport<\/a> for nearly a day, as well as other similar blazes at substations, Harris said: \u201cWe must be concerned about the vulnerability of our critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know that it\u2019s aged, hasn\u2019t had a very good record of maintenance, and of course, it was also designed for rather different conditions, in terms of the climate that it\u2019s now facing.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said that even if these were not caused by hostile states, which would be instead a \u201cvery interesting coincidence\u201d, a hostile adversary could say \u201clook, you can bring down Heathrow airport without too much trouble\u2019 \u2013 these then become a target, and we don\u2019t have a systematic arrangement for protecting things like that.\u201d<\/p>\n

How Nato is ramping up its defence<\/p>\n

As the threat of a hot war has risen in recent weeks, Nato has increased its patrols over its eastern border with Russia. Last week, RAF surveillance aircraft flew a 12-hour mission to monitor the frontier following drone and jet incursions by Russia over Poland, Estonia and Denmark.<\/p>\n

Harris told The i Paper: \u201cThere is an expectation that, however the Ukraine war goes forward, Russia will continue to apply pressure on the rest of Europe, on the West.<\/p>\n

\"\" <\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly the Estonians, Finns and so on are very concerned about the incursions that they may get. There have been massings of troops and alleged exercises in the vicinity of some of the borders. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo there is quite a significant fear that within the foreseeable future, depending who you talk to \u2013 it\u2019s all their own personal judgements \u2013 they talk three, four, five years\u2026 something else will happen. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut what we\u2019ve also seen is a significant ramping up of the grey-zone attacks. We\u2019ve seen acts of sabotage in different parts of Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n

Britain is \u2018ill-prepared for conflict\u2019<\/p>\n

Harris said it might be difficult for the UK to declare at what point this grey-zone activity goes from a \u201cnormal\u201d level of noise or \u201cdifficult-to-attribute things going on\u201d to the point of conflict that would need Nato to invoke Article 1 \u2013 where states would need to agree to back off from the brink of all-out war.<\/p>\n

The peer said that military chiefs of staff had been warning that \u201cour ability to operate, for example, in the way that Ukraine does, has still got a long way to go\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Strategic Defence Review published in June proposed a ramping up of military preparedness, including a new Defence Readiness Bill to provide the Government with powers to mobilise reserves and requisition industry to make more use of homeland resources.<\/p>\n

Harris added: \u201cWe are still, compared with many other nations, ill-prepared not only for conflict, but for all the other things that are on the risk register, including climate-related things, and that we really ought to be making much more of a national effort on preparedness and readiness in general terms, not just in terms of the threats from hostile states.<\/p>\n

\"EMBARGOEDDirector General of MI5 Sir Ken McCallum delivers his annual speech at thne agency\u2019s HQ in London (Photo: Jonathan Brady\/PA)<\/p>\n

\u201cI suspect if you spoke to most members of the public, they wouldn\u2019t see this as something where their lives are being changed or likely to be changed in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut we are undoubtedly closer to widespread war than we probably have been for 60-plus years. We have seen the escalation of things that have happened.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said there was a \u201chuge gulf between Labour\u2019s rhetoric and reality on defence\u201d.<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cFor all Starmer\u2019s claims on defence, Labour have simply not shown the urgency the threat requires. The threat we face is now\u2026 but Labour\u2019s defence promises deliver at best, in a decade.\u201d<\/p>\n

Emergency lessons in schools<\/p>\n

Harris said that the Government\u2019s Prepare website was \u201cnot in your face, it\u2019s not something that everybody recognises\u201d.<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cThe reality is, something on a website, which actually you might not be able to access in the event of certain sorts of emergencies if the power goes off \u2013 it\u2019s probably not enough. <\/p>\n

\u201cAnd that ought to be reinforced by leaflets and pamphlets, by regular spots on radio, television, social media. It just ought to be a part of everyday life.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt ought to be something that\u2019s taught in schools. We teach our children how to cross the road, we\u2019re increasingly teaching children how to be safe online. Well it ought to be: \u2018How well prepared is your household?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Are we already at war with Russia?<\/p>\n

Last month Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the former head of MI5, said Britain may already be at war with Russia due to the extent of cyber attacks and other grey zone activity.<\/p>\n

Natia Seskuria, associate fellow for international security at think tank Rusi, said she agreed with Manningham-Buller and added: \u201cThis so called war with Russia has not started right now with this certain degree of escalation, but Russia has been waging the war against the West for many, many years. <\/p>\n

\u201cAnd this involves a range of hybrid activities, such as sabotage operations, cyber attacks, disinformation, the attempts to influence domestic politics in multiple western countries by interfering into elections and various political, domestic political issues. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut recently we have seen a certain degree of escalation that we haven\u2019t seen before.<\/p>\n

\u201cI do not think we are close to some sort of all out war between Russia and the West, but I think that Russia is clearly signalling that it is willing to escalate the tensions.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"RussianRussian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Alexander Kazakov\/Kremlin\/AP)<\/p>\n

She added: \u201cI believe that they want to test to what extent Nato unity is still strong, especially in light of certain questions around to what extent the US is still committed to protecting its Nato allies.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd secondly, I think Russia wants to signal that it is still strong, that it has a capacity to extend the war beyond Ukraine, something that Nato\u2019s allies on the eastern flank have been especially worried about.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd by doing so, I think Putin believes that he can have a better negotiating leverage when it comes to ending the war in Ukraine on his own terms.\u201d<\/p>\n

If Russia keeps violating Western airspace Nato does not have many options other than shooting down Putin\u2019s warplanes \u2013 which would be treated as an act of war, Seskuria said.<\/p>\n

However Russia, \u201cas much as they want to test Nato unity, don\u2019t want to end up in a war directly with Nato\u201d due to the current state of its own military. \u201cRussia is playing a very dangerous game right now, by testing these boundaries of Nato unity.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: \u201cBritain is entering a new era of warfighting readiness, driven by the biggest sustained boost in defence spending since the end of the Cold War.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are delivering on the Strategic Defence Review by investing \u00a36bn in munitions this Parliament, including \u00a31.5bn in an \u2018always on\u2019 pipeline for munitions and building at least six new energetics and munitions factories in the UK,\u00a0creating British jobs and boosting British exports.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re also investing in new technology, taking lessons from Ukraine to put the UK at the leading edge of defence innovation, and\u00a0investing \u00a31bn in a digital targeting web to speed up battlefield decision making, targeting and destroying enemy threats quicker.\u201d<\/p>\n

Your next read<\/p>\n

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