The UK market to the US is projected to continue to grow next year despite concerns around affordability and the perception of the country as a welcoming destination.<\/p>\n
Analyst Oxford Economics said the UK was among the European markets currently bucking an overall downturn in outbound travel to the US and predicted ongoing growth in 2026.<\/p>\n
Data presented by Oxford Economics subsidiary Tourism Economics at Brand USA\u2019s Travel Week event in London suggested the overall inbound market to the US would be 6.3% down in 2025, compared to 2024. This is a 2.4 percentage point improvement on an earlier projection of an 8.7% downturn this year.<\/p>\n
A bounce back of 3.7% is predicted for 2026, with overall numbers expected to return to 2024 levels in 2027.<\/p>\n
Reasons for caution among travellers include affordability and the political climate, including the impact of the Trump administration\u2019s trade policies.<\/p>\n
Official data from the US Department of Commerce shows air arrivals from the UK were up 2.1% year on year at the end of August at 2,644,598. However, some trade experts say forward bookings indicate a downturn, with USAirtours chief executive Guy Novik estimating before the summer that the market could be as much as 8% down in 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n Oxford Economics director Martina Bozadzhieva told the event a recovery was expected to the US from all major European source markets in 2026, including from Germany and France, which are down 10% and 8% respectively this year.<\/p>\n However, she said the recovery would come at different paces dependent on market, and pointed to opportunities in markets including the UK, Spain and Italy where growth has continued in 2025.<\/p>\n Bozadzhieva added: \u201cIs [the overall decline in 2025] a structural change and have we seen a permanent shift? Our short answer is \u2018no\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n