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<\/p>\n Read in app<\/p>\n <\/a> <\/p>\n This story is available exclusively to Business Insider The Federal Reserve is regarded as the arbiter of interest rates in the US, but there’s a lesser-known force driving borrowing costs, and it’s trending at multi-year lows.<\/p>\n On Monday, market veteran Ed Yardeni flagged the correlation between oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield<\/a>, which is the benchmark for all kinds of loans, including mortgages and many kinds of corporate debt.<\/p>\n Over the last week, oil prices have plunged to their lowest levels in almost five years. US crude prices hit $56.99 a barrel last Thursday, the lowest price since February 2021. Driving the plunge has been a cocktail of worries about global energy demand, trade uncertainty, and booming oil production<\/a> in recent times, especially from non-OPEC states led by the US.<\/p>\n Yardeni Research<\/p>\n “There is a positive correlation between the crude oil price and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield (chart). If the oil price continues to fall and the Fed eases on October 29, the yield is likely to fall below 4.00% possibly down to 3.75%,” Yardeni wrote.<\/p>\n A move in the 10-year Treasury to that level would mark a 20 basis point decline from Tuesday’s yield of 3.95%. It would also likely be a boon for borrowers, potentially unlocking the housing market<\/a> for more prospective homebuyers and helping to assuage fears of a credit crunch as corporate borrowers face lower costs of capital.<\/p>\n Oil has had a volatile but mostly down year in 2025. Apart from a brief spike during this summer’s conflict between Israel and Iran<\/a>, there’s been little upward movement in crude. Record output from US producers, increased production from OPEC+<\/a>, and global growth concerns amid the trade war have kept a lid on crude prices.<\/p>\n US and international oil edged up slightly on Tuesday, but are down 18% and 19% respectively this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2025-10-21T16:28:01Z Share Facebook Email X LinkedIn Reddit Bluesky WhatsApp Copy link lighning bolt icon An icon in the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":517431,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,2441,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-517430","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-markets","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115413174420235294","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=517430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517430\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/517431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=517430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=517430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=517430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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