{"id":517601,"date":"2025-10-21T18:19:12","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T18:19:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/517601\/"},"modified":"2025-10-21T18:19:12","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T18:19:12","slug":"dollar-climbs-on-yen-weakness-and-easing-us-china-trade-tensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/517601\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Climbs on Yen Weakness and Easing US-China Trade Tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"

The dollar index (DXY00<\/a>) today is up by +0.30% at a four-session high.\u00a0The dollar is moving higher today on weakness in the yen, which has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, as expectations rise that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy.\u00a0 The dollar also has carryover support from Monday, when US-China trade tensions eased after President Trump said, “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

Gains in the dollar are limited after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low.\u00a0 Also, the ongoing shutdown of the US government is bearish for the dollar.\u00a0The longer the shutdown is maintained, the more likely the US economy will suffer, a negative factor for the dollar.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell -9.9 to a 4-month low of -22.2.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD (^EURUSD<\/a>) today is down by -0.26%.\u00a0 The euro is moving lower today due to the strength of the dollar.\u00a0 The euro is also weighed down by negative carryover from last Friday, when S&P Global Ratings cut France’s sovereign debt credit rating. \u00a0Further downside in the euro may be limited due to central bank divergence, with the Fed expected to keep cutting interest rates while the ECB is at the end of its rate-cutting cycle.<\/p>\n

Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY (^USDJPY<\/a>) today is up by +0.60%. \u00a0The yen tumbled to a one-week low against the dollar today after Sanae Takaichi won the parliamentary vote to become Prime Minister. Takaichi’s policies are unfavorable for the yen, as she advocates for increased deficit spending and expanded financial stimulus.\u00a0 The yen is also under pressure after the Nikkei Stock Index rose to a new record high today, which curbed safe-haven demand for the yen.<\/p>\n

Japan’s Sep machine tool orders were revised upward to +11.0% y\/y from the previously reported +9.9% y\/y, the largest increase in 6 months.<\/p>\n

December COMEX gold (GCZ2<\/a>5) today is down -174.90 (-4.01%), and December COMEX silver (SIZ2<\/a>5) is down -3.374 (-6.57%). \u00a0Gold and silver prices are plunging today, with silver reaching a one-week low. \u00a0Today’s stronger dollar is weighing on metals prices.\u00a0Also, the easing of US-China trade tensions has sparked massive, long liquidation in precious metals after President Trump said relations with China “will be fine.”<\/p>\n

Gold and silver prices rallied to record highs last week as they extended their two-month-long parabolic rally.\u00a0 Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support due to uncertainty tied to US tariffs, geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and US-China trade tensions.\u00a0Also, President Trump’s attacks on Fed independence are boosting demand for gold.\u00a0 In addition, recent weaker-than-expected US economic news has bolstered the outlook for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates, a bullish factor for precious metals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Precious metals prices continue to receive support from fund buying of precious metal ETFs.\u00a0 Gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 3-year high on Monday, and silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 3.25-year high last Tuesday.<\/p>\n

\n On the date of publication,<\/p>\n

Rich Asplund<\/a><\/p>\n

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.<\/p>\n

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy<\/p>\n

here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.30% at a four-session high.\u00a0The dollar is moving higher today…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":517602,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,2441,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-517601","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-markets","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115413540579087672","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=517601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517601\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/517602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=517601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=517601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=517601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}