{"id":545206,"date":"2025-11-03T00:40:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T00:40:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/545206\/"},"modified":"2025-11-03T00:40:23","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T00:40:23","slug":"tariff-effect-now-showing-in-data-indias-us-exports-dip-sharply-analysis-lists-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/545206\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff effect now showing in data: India&#8217;s US exports dip sharply, analysis lists risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY\">Talks for a trade deal are continuing between India and the US \u2014 President Donald Trump and PM Narendra Modi&#8217;s bonhomie is also regularly on display \u2014 but real-world impact of the massive US tariffs at 50% continues to show at the same time.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/INDIA-US-TRADE-TARIFF-2_1762096696660_1762096710647.jpg\" alt=\"India and US have been engaged in trade deal talks for months now. (AFP)\" title=\"India and US have been engaged in trade deal talks for months now. (AFP)\" width=\"360\" height=\"202\" fetchpriority=\"high\"\/>India and US have been engaged in trade deal talks for months now. (AFP)<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY \">India&#8217;s exports to the American market fell for the fourth consecutive month, across sectors, seeing a 37.5% dip in the May-September 2025 period, according to an analysis by India-based trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">After a 10% rate was imposed at the beginning of the fiscal year, the tariffs hit a high in August: recahing 25% at the beginning, and then another 25%, as \u201cpenalty\u201d for buying Russian oil despite its war with Ukraine, by the last week of that month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">The GTRI analysis compared export performance between May and September to assess the immediate fallout of the tariffs imposed from April 2 onwards.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">In absolute numbers, the plunge between May and September 2025 was from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion. This is one of the sharpest short-term collapses in years, GTRI said in its note on Sunday, as reported by news agency ANI.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, agriculture products and foods, and machinery account for nearly 60% of India&#8217;s US exports. These suffered a 33% decline, from $4.8 billion in May to $3.2 billion in September, GTRI found in its analysis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">For various reasons, tariff-free products that account for nearly one-third of India&#8217;s total shipments saw the steepest contraction \u2014 falling 47 per cent from $3.4 billion in May to $1.8 billion in September, the analysis further found. &#8220;Smartphones and pharmaceuticals were the biggest casualties,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n<p>How the dip played out<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Smartphone exports had in fact surged 197%, meaning a tripling, in the April-September 2024 period. In the same period in 2025, this crashed 58%. It went down from $2 billion in June, to $1.52 billion in July, $964.8 million in August, and finally $884.6 million in September. &#8220;The reasons for decline are not known and need examination.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Pharmaceutical product exports slipped 15.7%.<\/li>\n<li>Industrial metals and auto parts, subject to uniform tariffs for all countries, registered a milder 16.7% decline.<\/li>\n<li>Aluminium exports dropped 37%, copper 25%, auto parts 12%, and iron and steel 8%.<\/li>\n<li>Gems and jewellery exports collapsed 59.5%, from $500.2 million to 202.8 million, deeply affecting units in Surat and Mumbai, as Thailand and Vietnam captured lost US orders, GTRI claimed.<\/li>\n<li>Exports of solar panels plunged 60.8 per cent, from USD 202.6 million to USD 79.4 million, eroding India&#8217;s renewable-energy export edge.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here, with China facing only 30% tariffs and Vietnam 20% (during the analysis period), India&#8217;s competitiveness has sharply deteriorated, GTRI observed.<\/p>\n<p>What needs to be done, as per GTRI<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Exporters are urging the government to respond swiftly,&#8221; GTRI noted. Priority measures should include emergency credit lines for MSME exporters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">Without urgent intervention, according to GTRI, India risks losing market share to Vietnam, Mexico, and China, even in sectors where it previously held a strong position.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">&#8220;The latest data make one point clear: tariffs have not only squeezed India&#8217;s trade margins but also exposed structural vulnerabilities across key export industries,&#8221; GTRI concluded.<\/p>\n<p class=\"articleDetail_content__LXgYY  0-0-0\">India says it&#8217;s currently in the last leg of discussions for a trade deal, with US stating that India has agreed to scale down its purchases of Russian oil \u2014 an assertion Delhi has neither confirmed nor denied.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Talks for a trade deal are continuing between India and the US \u2014 President Donald Trump and PM&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":545207,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[51,1700,28950,56109,175225,175226,16,15,2612],"class_list":{"0":"post-545206","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-global-trade-research-initiative","11":"tag-india-us-trade-deal","12":"tag-indias-exports","13":"tag-msme-exporters","14":"tag-uk","15":"tag-united-kingdom","16":"tag-us-tariffs"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115482986706758638","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545206\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/545207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}