{"id":546691,"date":"2025-11-03T17:54:20","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T17:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/546691\/"},"modified":"2025-11-03T17:54:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T17:54:20","slug":"third-quarter-earnings-are-indicating-a-divided-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/546691\/","title":{"rendered":"Third-quarter earnings are indicating a divided economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A Taco Bell restaurant in El Cerrito, California, US, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. <\/p>\n<p>David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>With more consumer companies preparing to report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/11\/02\/earnings-playbook-amd-and-palantir-set-to-report-in-another-busy-week.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">third-quarter earnings<\/a> this week, Wall Street will be watching for signs of a bifurcated or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/23\/k-shaped-spending-sectors-showing-bifurcation.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;K-shaped&#8221; economy<\/a> as consumers diverge in their spending behaviors.<\/p>\n<p>There have been increasing signals that wealthier Americans are spending more while lower-income Americans are significantly paring back their spending. Lower-income consumers have been hit hardest by rising inflation and escalating prices on essentials, with this month&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/24\/cpi-inflation-september-2025.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Consumer Price Index report<\/a> indicating a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%.<\/p>\n<p>Shortly after the CPI report was released, the Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/29\/fed-rate-decision-october-2025.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">on Wednesday approved<\/a> its second straight interest rate cut, lowering its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the country is entering the fifth week of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/31\/snap-trump-judge-food-stamps-shutdown.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">government shutdown<\/a>, with many federal workers going without pay.<\/p>\n<p>The Census Bureau estimated there were 35.9 million people in poverty in 2024, the most recent available data, with the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four coming in at $32,130. The median household income, meanwhile was $83,730 last year, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/newsroom\/press-releases\/2025\/income-poverty-health-insurance-coverage.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bureau<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The top 10% of households saw their income increase 4.2% between 2023 and 2024, but there was no meaningful change for the bottom 10% of households, the bureau said in September. There were approximately 33 million households in the top 10% of earners and another 33 million in the bottom 10% of earners as of last year.<\/p>\n<p>Consumers with the highest purchasing power have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/03\/the-wealth-of-the-top-1percent-reaches-a-record-52-trillion.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">benefited<\/a> from stock market rallies and rising home values. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/14\/theres-a-shocking-disparity-between-how-high-income-and-low-income-earners-feel-about-the-economy.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Data<\/a> from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/JPM\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">JPMorgan<\/a>&#8216;s Cost of Living Survey found that higher-income consumers reported stronger economic confidence readings for the next year.<\/p>\n<p>Recent earnings reports from companies touching all corners of the economy have indicated the K-shaped trend is beginning to take hold. This week, companies like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/YUM\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yum Brands<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/MCD\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">McDonald&#8217;s<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/ELF\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">E.l.f. Beauty<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/TPR\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tapestry<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/UAA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Under Armour<\/a> are preparing to release quarterly earnings reports and could report similar trends.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/CMG\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chipotle<\/a> reported it&#8217;s seeing consumers who make less than $100,000 a year, which represents roughly 40% of the company&#8217;s customer base, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/29\/chipotle-cmg-earnings-q3-2025.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">spending less frequently<\/a> due to concerns about the economy and inflation. CEO Scott Boatwright said the company is seeing &#8220;consistent macroeconomic pressures&#8221; with a 0.8% decline in traffic for the quarter.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/KO\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Coca-Cola<\/a> said in its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/21\/coca-cola-ko-q3-2025-earnings.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">third-quarter earnings<\/a> that pricier products like Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes are driving its growth. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/PG\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Procter &amp; Gamble<\/a> reported similar results, saying wealthier customers are buying more from club retailers, which sell bigger pack sizes, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/24\/procter-gamble-pg-q1-2026-earnings.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lower-income shoppers<\/a> are significantly pulling back.<\/p>\n<p>And some of the companies reporting this week have already indicated they may be seeing similar behaviors. In early September, McDonald&#8217;s CEO Chris Kempczinski\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2025\/09\/02\/mcdonaldas-ceo-middle-and-lower-income-consumers-are-under-a-lot-of-pressure-right-now.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told<\/a>\u00a0CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/squawk-box-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Squawk Box<\/a>&#8221; that the chain&#8217;s expansion of its value menu was due to a &#8220;two-tier economy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/108193062-17568168221756816818-41460833767-1080pnbcnews.jpg\" alt=\"McDonald&#x2019;s CEO: Middle- and lower-income consumers are under a lot of pressure right now\"\/><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Traffic for lower-income consumers is down double digits, and it&#8217;s because people are either choosing to skip a meal &#8230; or they&#8217;re choosing to just eat at home,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>The trend isn&#8217;t limited to just food and beverage, either. In the autos world, consumers who can afford to buy new vehicles are on a spree, while those who are more price constrained are sitting out. Defaults and repossessions are on the rise while the average price for a new vehicle is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/13\/new-car-prices-auto-loan-delinquencies.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">setting records<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And in the service industry, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/HLT\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hilton<\/a> earlier this month reported that it saw a drop in revenue for its affordable brands while its luxury offerings performed exceedingly well. Still, CEO Christopher Nassetta\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2025\/09\/04\/hilton-ceo-the-high-end-customer-has-been-super-strong-but-bifurcation-wont-last-long.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told CNBC<\/a>\u00a0last month that he doesn&#8217;t expect bifurcation to last much longer.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;My own belief is that as we look into the fourth quarter and particularly into next year, we&#8217;re going to see a very big shift in those dynamics, meaning, I don&#8217;t think you&#8217;re going to continue to have this bifurcation,&#8221; Nassetta said. &#8220;That&#8217;s not to say I think the high end is going to get worse or bad. I just think the middle and the low end [are] going to move up.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A Taco Bell restaurant in El Cerrito, California, US, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. David Paul Morris |&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":546692,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[16650,51,3085,24839,169933,22119,175608,1830,4750,1700,786,103400,7992,99562,16678,20948,280,33700,34805,16651,16,118323,15,116065],"class_list":{"0":"post-546691","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-breaking-news-business","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-business-news","11":"tag-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc","12":"tag-christopher-j-nassetta","13":"tag-coca-cola-co","14":"tag-e-l-f-beauty-inc","15":"tag-earnings","16":"tag-economic-events","17":"tag-economy","18":"tag-food-and-drink","19":"tag-hilton-worldwide-holdings-inc","20":"tag-jpmorgan-chase-co","21":"tag-mcdonalds-corp","22":"tag-prices","23":"tag-procter-gamble-co","24":"tag-restaurants","25":"tag-retail-industry","26":"tag-tapestry-inc","27":"tag-transportation","28":"tag-uk","29":"tag-under-armour-inc","30":"tag-united-kingdom","31":"tag-yum-brands-inc"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115487052760468338","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=546691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546691\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/546692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=546691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=546691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=546691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}