For more than two decades, Sergey Lavrov has been Russia’s top foreign diplomat, representing the Kremlin regime around the world.<\/p>\n
And then, he was gone.<\/p>\n
Mr Lavrov, 75, has been the country’s foreign minister since 2004, and is widely rated as being among President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies.<\/p>\n
But it has been three weeks since his last official appearance, sparking speculation he has fallen foul of Russia’s ruthless leader.<\/p>\n
There have been several warning signs.<\/p>\n
Last week, Mr Lavrov did not attend a meeting of the country’s security council, and it was a big one: during the meeting, Mr Putin ordered the military to prepare to resume testing nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n
The Kremlin did not explain the foreign minister’s absence, although Russian newspaper Kommersant reported Mr Lavrov had missed the gathering “by agreement”.<\/p>\n
Mr Lavrov’s failure to attend the ASEAN meeting in Kuala Lumpur last month, and the fact he is not going to be part of Russia’s delegation at the G20 summit in South Africa on November 22 and 23, are also unusual.<\/p>\n
He is a regular at these types of global meetings, and has led the country’s presence at G20 conferences in each of the past three years.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Vladimir Putin has not explained his foreign minister’s absence. (Reuters: Sputnik\/Gavriil Grigorov)<\/p>\n
Could he just be sick? Or is it something more sinister?<\/p>\n
Several of Mr Putin’s critics and enemies have met violent and mysterious deaths during his nearly 25-year reign over Russia.<\/p>\n
But Mr Lavrov is an ally, and is widely considered someone the president trusts.<\/p>\n
“These rumours about Lavrov, that he fell out of favour of Putin, they may be substantiated, and they may be not,” said former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev.<\/p>\n
“We have no verifiable information to support this claim yet.”<\/p>\n
Mr Bondarev resigned in protest after Mr Putin ordered his country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and now lives in Switzerland.<\/p>\n
He described Mr Lavrov as “a reasonable guy” during an online discussion hosted by the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST) this week.<\/p>\n
“He’s an old oak, and his roots are long and deep,” Mr Bondarev said of his former boss.<\/p>\n
“I think he’s used to thinking [Russia’s] foreign affairs is his private dominion. It would be quite problematic to take him out.”<\/p>\n
Changes in the Kremlin are not without precedent. Last year, Mr Putin sacked his defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who had had the job since 2012.<\/p>\n
However, he retains a senior position in the government.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Sergey Lavrov (back, right) appears with world leaders, including Anthony Albanese and China’s Xi Jinping, at last year’s G20 summit in Brazil. (Reuters: Pilar Olivares)<\/p>\n
Mr Lavrov’s profile has been amplified since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n
That move cemented the Russian president’s status as a pariah at these types of diplomatic events, at least as far as Western countries and their allies are concerned.<\/p>\n
The fact the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Mr Putin in March 2023 also meant Mr Lavrov’s stocks rose.<\/p>\n
Russia’s president is wanted by the ICC over allegations of war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. The warrant restricts his travel significantly and Mr Lavrov has stepped in.<\/p>\n
Nikolai Petrov, a senior fellow at NEST and expert in Russian politics, said Mr Lavrov had proven himself to be a “capable” Putin ally.<\/p>\n
“Sergey Lavrov is a very important person at the top of Russian political elites, but only as an implementer of Vladimir Putin’s decisions, not as decision-maker himself,” Mr Petrov said.<\/p>\n
Mr Putin’s top spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has said there is “nothing true” about reports the president had sidelined Mr Lavrov.<\/p>\n
And yet, his absence continues.<\/p>\n
Lavrov must ‘do whatever the big boss says’<\/p>\n
Some analysts have traced the saga back to the Russian foreign minister’s phone call with US counterpart Marco Rubio on October 20, which Britain’s Financial Times newspaper claimed was “tense”.<\/p>\n
Four days earlier, US President Donald Trump had said he was preparing to meet Mr Putin in person in Hungary for talks on ending the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
But after the call between Mr Rubio and Mr Lavrov, Mr Trump changed his tune, saying such a gathering could be a “waste of time”.<\/p>\n
There has been speculation Mr Lavrov has been punished for his handling of the phone hook-up, particularly if it scuttled plans for a rare in-person meeting between Mr Putin and Mr Trump.<\/p>\n
Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, rubbished the Financial Times’ story as a work of fiction “worthy of Agatha Christie’s pen”.<\/p>\n
But Mr Petrov told the ABC the hasty cancellation of plans for Mr Putin and Mr Trump to meet was significant, in that it could represent a public divide between Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the president’s office \u2014 something seldom seen.<\/p>\n
“This is, perhaps, the reason why some experts, when discussing Lavrov’s disappearance, are saying that he came out of favour [with Putin],” Mr Petrov said, adding he thought the most likely explanation for the foreign minister’s absence was an “illness”.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio put their heads together during the summit between their countries, held in Alaska earlier this year. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)<\/p>\n
Mr Bondarev is sceptical about suggestions Mr Lavrov \u2014 who began his career in the Soviet Union \u2014 could have mishandled the call, pointing to the veteran bureaucrat’s reputation as a safe pair of hands when it comes to serving Russia.<\/p>\n
“He was taught that whatever the big boss says, you must do it,” Mr Bondarev said.<\/p>\n
“That’s what Lavrov has been doing all his life. And his conversation with Secretary Rubio, for instance, I just don’t see how Lavrov could have said anything that would particularly offend the Americans and could have led to their decision to postpone the [Putin-Trump] meeting.<\/p>\n
“Lavrov would only have said things he and Putin had been saying before.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Luke March, a professor in post-Soviet studies at the University of Edinburgh, agreed it was unlikely Mr Lavrov deviated from the official Kremlin position during the call.<\/p>\n
“But it’s still a possibility he’s being made a kind of fall guy for the breakdown of the talks,” he said.<\/p>\n