{"id":573871,"date":"2025-11-16T09:49:20","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T09:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/573871\/"},"modified":"2025-11-16T09:49:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T09:49:20","slug":"finlands-stubb-with-a-ukraine-ceasefire-unlikely-this-year-europe-must-hold-its-nerve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/573871\/","title":{"rendered":"Finland’s Stubb: With a Ukraine ceasefire unlikely this year, Europe must hold its nerve"},"content":{"rendered":"

HALVALA, Finland (AP) \u2014 A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the spring and European allies need to keep up support despite a corruption scandal<\/a> that has engulfed Kyiv, President Alexander Stubb of Finland told The Associated Press. <\/p>\n

Europe, meanwhile, will require \u2018\u2019sisu,\u2019\u2019 a Finnish word meaning endurance, resilience and grit, to get through the winter months, he said, as Russia continues its hybrid attacks<\/a> and information war across the continent.<\/p>\n

Stubb also needs that quality as one of the key European interlocutors between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. As the leader of one of Europe\u2019s smaller countries, but one that shares a 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with Russia<\/a>, he is well aware of what\u2019s at stake. <\/p>\n

In the 1940s, after two wars with Russia, Finland lost about 10% of its territory to Moscow and agreed to become militarily neutral. But Finland\u2019s losses were much less than they could have been as Finnish troops displayed \u201csisu\u201d and inflicted heavy losses on the Soviet army, despite being vastly outnumbered. <\/p>\n

Finland\u2019s neutral stance only reversed after Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the Finns joined NATO. Stubb leverages his good relationship with Trump \u2014 the two men have played golf together and speak regularly \u2014 to argue the case for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\u201cI can explain to President Trump what Finland went through or how I see the situation on the battlefield, or how do you deal with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin? And then, you know, if he accepts one out of 10 ideas, that\u2019s good,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Stubb spoke to AP Saturday at a military base north of the capital Helsinki, where he observed Finnish volunteers take part in defense training. Wearing a jacket with the word \u201csisu\u201d emblazoned across the back, he watched as volunteers practiced evacuating wounded soldiers from a conflict zone in freezing temperatures. <\/p>\n

Stubb told AP that Zelenskyy must deal quickly with allegations of kickbacks and embezzlement<\/a>, saying the scandal plays into the hands of Russia. Nonetheless, he urged European leaders to look at boosting financial and military support for Kyiv, which is also facing creeping gains by Russia<\/a> on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,\u201d Stubb said, adding it would be good to \u201cget something going\u201d by March.<\/p>\n

The three big questions on the road to a ceasefire are security guarantees for Ukraine<\/a>, rebuilding its economy and coming to some sort of understanding about territorial claims, he said.<\/p>\n

To bring peace to Ukraine, Stubb said, Trump and European leaders need to maximize pressure on Russia and on Putin in order to change his strategic thinking. Putin \u201cbasically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,\u201d aims that have not altered since the war began nearly four years ago, Stubb said.<\/p>\n

To do this, he suggested using tools such as the hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets<\/a> held in Europe as collateral to fund Ukraine, as well as increasing military pressure on Moscow.<\/p>\n

Stubb praised Trump for sanctioning the major Russian energy companies<\/a> Lukoil and Rosneft in October, saying he did \u201can excellent job,\u201d but argued more must be done to give Ukraine the capacity to hit Russia\u2019s \u201cmilitary or defense industry.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last month, Trump denied a Ukrainian request<\/a> for long-range Tomahawk missiles that would theoretically allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia \u2013 although Kyiv does not currently have any launchers or platforms from which to fire them.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is still negotiating with the U.S. for more firepower, Stubb indicated. <\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s swings on Ukraine<\/p>\n

In mid-October, the White House announced Trump would meet Putin in Budapest before abruptly canceling the meeting<\/a> less than a week later.<\/p>\n

The decision came after a call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, where Rubio probably realized that \u201cthe Russians haven\u2019t moved an inch,\u201d Stubb said, and there was \u201cno point in taking President Trump into a situation whereby he doesn\u2019t get a deal or anything.\u201d <\/p>\n

The cancellation was \u201canother example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity and they blew it,\u201d Stubb said.<\/p>\n

Trump has swung back and forth between seeking rapprochement with Putin<\/a> and applying pressure<\/a> to him, and has done the same with Zelenskyy<\/a>. Stubb said he deals with any shifts by being \u201cquite patient\u201d and living with \u201creality.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can\u2019t have illusions about things that you would like to see happening,\u201d the Finnish president said. \u201cI\u2019ve tried personally to focus on things such as: We need security guarantees for Ukraine. How to build those? We need a ceasefire. How can we get that?<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s been a bit of a grind. I guess you need \u2018sisu\u2019 in these types of negotiations as well.\u201d <\/p>\n

But, he said, the work is paying off and the military options for guaranteeing Ukraine\u2019s security once a ceasefire or peace negotiation is reached are now \u201cclear,\u201d with various countries having committed resources \u2014 although he declined to give more details, citing confidential military planning.<\/p>\n

Despite some of Ukraine\u2019s missteps, Stubb is unstinting in his praise for Zelenskyy. \u201cI admire a lot of the things that he\u2019s doing because to lead a country in a war … is existential. You learn a lot from other human beings in that situation,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Stubb has Trump\u2019s ear<\/p>\n

When it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, Stubb is in a better position than many European leaders. In his youth, he studied in the United States on a golf scholarship, and the two spent about seven hours playing a round at Mar-a-Lago in March. <\/p>\n

Golf was a \u201cdoor-opener,\u201d and helped him create a bond with the U.S. president, he suggested. While Trump and Zelenskyy have a notoriously tempestuous relationship, Stubb said he and other European leaders can help act as a bridge between them. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe interpret President Trump to President Zelenskyy and vice versa,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

But when it comes to Putin, only one person should negotiate directly and publicly with him and that\u2019s Trump, Stubb indicated, suggesting the European Union is unlikely to open a direct channel of communication with the Russian leader any time soon.<\/p>\n

Russian attacks in Europe<\/p>\n

At the same time, Trump is leading negotiations with Putin, multiple European countries have faced incursions from Russian drones<\/a>, suspected<\/a> or confirmed<\/a>, as well as fighter jets<\/a> and an alleged widespread Russian sabotage campaign<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Russia is not only conducting a kinetic war in Ukraine but also a hybrid war in Europe, Stubb told AP.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe line between war and peace has been blurred,\u201d Stubb said<\/p>\n

Russia, he said, is trying to destabilize Europe and \u201ccause havoc and panic,\u201d with attacks including arson, vandalism and propaganda. <\/p>\n

The way to deal with those threats is to \u201cbe Finnish,\u201d Stubb said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn other words, be cool, calm, collected and have a little bit of that \u2018sisu.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"HALVALA, Finland (AP) \u2014 A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the spring and European allies need to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":573872,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[766,2575,32,2000,299,1699,769,164498,4179,8614,2820,285,332,7661,24392,10243,657,7662,333,2601,7660,263],"class_list":{"0":"post-573871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-alexander-stubb","9":"tag-corruption","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-eu","12":"tag-europe","13":"tag-european-union","14":"tag-finland","15":"tag-finland-government","16":"tag-general-news","17":"tag-international-agreements","18":"tag-marco-rubio","19":"tag-politics","20":"tag-russia","21":"tag-russia-ukraine-war","22":"tag-scandals","23":"tag-sergey-lavrov","24":"tag-ukraine","25":"tag-ukraine-government","26":"tag-vladimir-putin","27":"tag-volodymyr-zelenskyy","28":"tag-war-and-unrest","29":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115558754868298527","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/573871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=573871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/573871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/573872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=573871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=573871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=573871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}