{"id":586302,"date":"2025-11-22T07:20:37","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T07:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/586302\/"},"modified":"2025-11-22T07:20:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T07:20:37","slug":"uk-faces-hidden-brexit-damage-lost-output-could-top-240-billion-economists-warn-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/586302\/","title":{"rendered":"UK Faces Hidden Brexit Damage: Lost Output Could Top \u00a3240 Billion, Economists Warn | Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"UK.\"<\/p>\n

Researchers said the negative effects \u201caccumulated gradually,\u201d becoming harder to ignore as persistent uncertainty, new trade barriers, and higher costs took hold.<\/p>\n

\"google\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

A new study has found that Brexit has inflicted nearly twice the economic damage previously estimated by the UK\u2019s official forecaster, intensifying pressure on the government ahead of next week\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n

Brexit\u2019s Economic Damage Worse Than Expected<\/strong><\/p>\n

A working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) \u2014 co-authored by senior Bank of England economist Philip Bunn \u2014 concludes that Brexit has cost the UK 6% to 8% of GDP per person over the past decade. That translates to \u00a3180\u2013\u00a3240 billion in lost output.<\/p>\n

By contrast, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) previously estimated a 4% long-term hit.<\/p>\n

The paper, presented to the OBR, finds that Brexit has:<\/p>\n

Reduced productivity by 3% to 4% since 2016<\/p>\n\n

Weakened investment and employment<\/p>\n\n

Increased uncertainty, causing businesses to divert resources away from growth<\/p>\n

Researchers said the negative effects \u201caccumulated gradually,\u201d becoming harder to ignore as persistent uncertainty, new trade barriers, and higher costs took hold.<\/p>\n

Government Faces Tough Fiscal Decisions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing to unveil a budget shaped heavily by a major downgrade in the UK\u2019s long-term growth outlook.<\/p>\n

A recent OBR reassessment \u2014 largely driven by weaker productivity \u2014 has created a \u00a320 billion fiscal gap, which Reeves aims to close through significant tax increases.<\/p>\n

Reeves has repeatedly linked the UK\u2019s lagging productivity to the nature of its Brexit departure, echoing comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who warns the drag on growth will continue \u201cfor the foreseeable future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Growing Public and Political Pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

The study arrives amid rising public dissatisfaction: a YouGov survey shows 56% of Britons now believe Brexit was a mistake.<\/p>\n

Labour hopes to rebuild relations with the EU to recover some of the lost output. If GDP were 6% higher, Reeves would have \u00a360 billion more to work with \u2014 without raising taxes.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage\u2019s Reform UK party continues to dominate polls, signalling deep voter frustration as the economy struggles to regain momentum.<\/p>\n

Brexit\u2019s Effects Still Deepening<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the paper, the economic damage has continued even after the 2021 Trade and Cooperation Agreement took effect.<\/p>\n

Comparisons with a \u201csynthetic UK\u201d built from similar economies showed a widening economic gap. By 2021, the UK faced a 4\u20136% GDP shortfall; by 2025, it had deepened to 6\u20138%.<\/p>\n

The study highlights reduced innovation, falling business investment, weaker demand, and productivity losses as key drivers of the sustained slowdown.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Researchers said the negative effects \u201caccumulated gradually,\u201d becoming harder to ignore as persistent uncertainty, new trade barriers, and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":586303,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[25548,936,802,748,1700,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,184873,8414,184874,184872,156084,24163,184871,619,41022,47600,16,15,80884],"class_list":{"0":"post-586302","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-andrew-bailey","9":"tag-bank-of-england","10":"tag-brexit","11":"tag-britain","12":"tag-economy","13":"tag-eu","14":"tag-europe","15":"tag-european","16":"tag-european-union","17":"tag-great-britain","18":"tag-growing-public","19":"tag-labour","20":"tag-national-bureau-of-economic-research","21":"tag-nigel-farages-reform","22":"tag-obr","23":"tag-office-for-budget-responsibility","24":"tag-philip-bunn","25":"tag-rachel-reeves","26":"tag-reeves","27":"tag-times-now","28":"tag-uk","29":"tag-united-kingdom","30":"tag-yougov"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115592143284878726","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=586302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586302\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/586303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=586302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=586302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=586302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}