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Jonathan Watts<\/p>\nKey events<\/p>\n
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Jonathan Watts<\/p>\n
In the corridors on the way to the closing plenary, Ana Toni<\/strong>, the executive director of Cop30<\/a>, expressed disappointment about the absence of a roadmap for a transition away from fossil fuels in the final text.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is frustrating in the sense that this is something that is necessary to deal with the climate crisis,\u201d she said. \u201cThere wasn\u2019t a consensus about this,\u201c she said. \u201cBut with Brazil holding the presidency of COP, we can do things. We will do things\u2026 There will be a year of the Brazilian presidency.\u201d<\/p>\n On the subject of financing for adaptation – a key Brazilian goal from this conference – she declared victory.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a vital topic for small island nations, for the most vulnerable countries in Africa, in Latin America. And we really wanted adaptation to be included. For the result we expect to come out, we are very happy.\u201d<\/p>\n On the topic of deforestation – a key issue, given this is the first Cop to take place in the Amazon rainforest – Toni said Brazil hoped there to see progress in the final text.<\/p>\n \u201cLet\u2019s take a look. We helped to propose (this topic). There will certainly be movement in this area… So we hope that has been included. And if there isn\u2019t, the presidency of the Cop is totally compromised,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Andr\u00e9 Corr\u00eaa do Lago, COP30 president, right, and Ana Toni, COP30 CEO, talk at a news conference during the COP30 U.N. Climate Summit, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025, in Belem, Brazil. Photograph: Andr\u00e9 Penner\/APShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.31 EST<\/p>\n We have some texts, but we do not have the big one yet (the global mutir\u00e3o decision).<\/p>\n So far, we have the final versions on the mitigation work programme<\/a>, the global stocktake<\/a>, gender<\/a>, loss and damage<\/a>, and the global environment facility<\/a>.<\/p>\n We will bring you more when we have it.<\/p>\n Share<\/a> Civil society campaigners from the developing world have accused the rich countries of spreading \u201cduplicitous narratives\u201d over their role in the Cop30<\/a> climate talks over the past fortnight.<\/p>\n As the talks in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil, passed the deadline for their resolution on Friday, European countries indicated they would walk away from any deal that did not include a commitment for \u201croadmap\u201d to phase out fossil fuels.<\/p>\n Sources blamed members of a group known as the \u201clike-minded developing countries\u201d, a loose grouping which includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran and Bolivia for rejecting the wording.<\/p>\n But civil society groups, who are permitted to observe negotiations where the media are not, said the global north had refused the finance to make such a transition plausible.<\/p>\n \u201cWe want this to be a Cop of truth, as the Cop presidency has said it should be,\u201d said Lidy Nacpil, the Filipino social justice activist who is coordinator of the Asian Peoples\u2019 Movement on Debt and Development, late on Friday.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd the narrative that is the developing countries that are not ambitious is not the truth. It is part of many duplicitous narratives that are coming out of this Cop and have come out of previous Cops.\u201d<\/p>\n Speaking at an impromptu press conference in the halls of the conference centre where the summit had gone into extra time, Nacpil said: \u201cWe are the first people who have the greatest at stake, for a rapid, equitable, and just transition out of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n \u201cBut we cannot accept this circus over a roadmap that is offering us nothing. We cannot accept that this roadmap is now being held as an instrument to hold hostage all the other demands that we have that are equally urgent. So we reject a roadmap that has nothing in it, no climate finance, no clear commitment to a just transition, in fact, blocking it at every step.\u201d<\/p>\n Tasneem Essop, of Climate Action Network International, said the EU, the UK and other rich countries had blocked progress on every single issue the developing world had asked for.<\/p>\n She said: \u201cThey blocked everything that the Global South needs from this Cop. And yet here we are with the EU claiming to be champions at this moment of the Cop, going out to the media declaring that they will walk out if they don\u2019t get a road map on fossil fuels. There\u2019s no substance to that road map.\u201d<\/p>\n Tasneem Essop, center, from South Africa, executive director of the Climate Action, speaks next to Lidy Nacpil, Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development, from the Philippines, center left, and others, during the COP30 U.N. Climate Summit, Friday, Nov. 21, 2025, in Belem, Brazil. Photograph: Andr\u00e9 Penner\/APShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.22 EST<\/p>\n Even though we do not yet have a final agreement in Brazil, some have already seen enough. Writing in the Conversation<\/a> this morning, Earth system scientists James Dyke<\/strong> and Johan Rockstr\u00f6m<\/strong> say that the prospect of limiting global heating to 1.5C is over. They say that it could be brought back below that level in time, however.<\/p>\n This is an extract of what they have written.<\/p>\n The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality<\/strong><\/p>\n Ten years ago the world\u2019s leaders placed a historic bet. The 2015 Paris agreement aimed to put humanity on a path to avert dangerous climate change. A decade on, with the latest climate conference<\/a> ending in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil, without decisive action, we can definitively say humanity has lost this bet.<\/p>\n Warming is going to exceed 1.5\u00b0C<\/a>. We are heading into \u201covershoot\u201d within the next few years. The world is going to become more turbulent and more dangerous. So, what comes after failure?<\/p>\n Our attempt to answer that question gathered the Earth League<\/a> \u2013 an international network of scientists we work with \u2013 for a meeting in Hamburg earlier this year. After months of intensive deliberation, its findings were published this week, with the conclusion that humanity is \u201cliving beyond limits\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n Exceed 1.5\u00b0C and not only do extreme climate events, like droughts, floods, fires and heatwaves grow in number and severity, impacting billions of people, we also approach tipping points<\/a> for large Earth regulating systems like the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Tropical coral reef systems, livelihood for over 200 million people, are unlikely to cope with overshoot.<\/p>\n This translates to existential risks for billions of people. Not far in the future, but within the next few years for extreme events, and within decades for tipping points.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n This aerial view shows Amazon rainforest and a deforastated area in the surroundings of Belem, Para State, Brazil, on November 12, 2025, during the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference. Photograph: Mauro Pimentel\/AFP\/Getty ImagesShare<\/a><\/p>\n We are close to the beginning of the plenary. Our reporters on the ground say that delegates are rushing to the room. If you would like to watch along, the livestream will appear here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Fossil fuel road map will not be in final agreement \u2013 Cop30 president<\/p>\n Cop30 president Andre Correa do Lago <\/strong>has said that a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels will not be in the final agreement, and Brazil will take charge of the issue separately instead.<\/p>\n Speaking on Instagram<\/a> around 8:10am local time, do Lago said he was positive that countries would back the agreement and that they had been in the negotiating halls into the early hours. \u201cCountries worked together really well,\u201d he told the camera.<\/p>\n At the end, do Lago says more on adaptation financing has been added to the text, but not language on phasing out fossil fuels, the main driver of global heating. Instead, the Brazilian government will oversee this as its own Cop30 initiative after the summit.<\/p>\n COP30 President Andre Correa Do Lago speaks to the media during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), in Belem, Brazil, November 21, 2025. Photograph: Anderson Coelho\/ReutersShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.44 EST<\/p>\n On the ground in Belem, the mood has changed ahead of the final plenary, which will begin in around 40 minutes.<\/p>\n \u201cAfter a sleepless night in Bel\u00e9m, negotiations have moved in a more positive direction than many feared 12 hours ago. What\u2019s emerging is a compromise that advances 1.5\u00b0C action, adaptation, and trade – and includes a provision that may not be called a \u2018fossil fuel roadmap,\u2019 but is clearly meant to achieve the same end. Brazil deserves credit for the energy it has invested across this COP cycle but must keep pushing. The next few hours will be pivotal in deciding whether COP30 stumbles or sprints across the finish line,\u201d says Clare Shakya<\/strong>, global managing director of climate with the Nature Conservancy.<\/p>\n In the venue, people are already busy packing up pavilions. As my colleague Damian Carrington<\/strong> snapped this morning, the Saudis are already shutting up shop.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia\u2019s pavilion at Cop30 on 22nd November 2025. Photograph: Damian CarringtonShare<\/a> The US \u2013 by its absence not presence \u2013 has had a major impact on what appears likely to be a disappointing deal at the Cop30<\/a> climate summit. This is because the US is the only country with the power to influence Saudi Arabia, observers say.<\/p>\n The oil-rich kingdom has a decades-long history of obstructing the climate talks<\/a> to protect its lucrative industry and has been widely blamed<\/a> here in Bel\u00e9m for leading efforts to block any mention of fossil fuels. With Donald Trump calling climate change a \u201ccon job\u201d, the US did not send a delegation to Cop30 and is withdrawing from the Paris agreement. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had a friendly meeting<\/a> with Trump on Tuesday.<\/p>\n \u201cUnfortunately with the departure of the US, we have lost one of the most powerful countries,\u201d said Tom Rivett-Carnac<\/strong>, political strategist to the UN climate chief when the Paris agreement was done.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the years when I was involved in Cops, when the US is really behind an agreement and really wants to make it happen, and is prepared to exert its economic authority in bringing, for example, the Saudi Arabians round, then we can really do things,\u201d he told the BBC<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe trouble I think we are experiencing in Brazil is we don\u2019t have that big push from the US and there is an emboldened attitude among the oil producing countries who feel there won\u2019t be a consequence for them if they delay.\u201d<\/p>\n Sources inside the negotiations have made the same point to the Guardian. The diplomatic might of the US, under presidents backing climate action, has often been a key factor in getting Cop deals over the line.<\/p>\n In October, bullying tactics by the US and a vote called by Saudi Arabia killed a plan<\/a> to place a small levy on the carbon emissions on shipping.<\/p>\n Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald Trump speaks at the US-Saudi Investment Forum at the John F. Kennedy Center on November 19, 2025. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski\/AFP\/Getty ImagesShare<\/a>What happens if too many people leave the summit?<\/p>\n As Cop30<\/a> continues to overrun, a growing concern is what happens if delegates start to leave the venue. For all UN meetings, a key percentage of government need to be in the room. If it slips below that figure, the meeting is adjourned and everyone goes home.<\/p>\n The excellent Ed King<\/strong> wrote about this in his Climate Diplomacy Brief<\/a> this morning:<\/p>\n Quorum is key: as cruise ships leave, many delegates have nowhere to stay tonight and will be heading out. Pacific delegates and many UN staffers are among those impacted. Brazil faces a race against time. Lula faces the prospect of explaining to G20 leaders why a summit he hoped would propel him to election victory in 2026 has ended in abject failure, with little to no support from his Brics allies and Saudi Arabia, which tried to kill efforts to talk cuts on Friday.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Remember, while large countries can have delegations of a few dozen people, many developing countries only send one or two representatives. If you need to fly home from Belem to a Pacific island or central Africa, bookings are hard to move.<\/p>\n At the biodiversity Cop16 in Cali last year, the meeting ended in disarray<\/a> after too many negotiators were forced to head home. The meeting had to be completed in Rome a few months later. That is a scenario we cannot rule out.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a007.46 EST<\/p>\n Ahead of the final plenary, I checked in with our environment editor Fiona Harvey<\/strong> in Belem to ask what we might expect in the next couple of hours. The word on the ground is that we should expect a final plenary to begin in the next 90 minutes or so. But in truth, it is unclear.<\/p>\n This is what she told me:<\/p>\n It\u2019s as clear as mud. They have called the plenary for 10am Belem time but we don\u2019t know what is happening to the text or if they will try to gavel something through without that. It could be that there\u2019s a plenary and then it adjourns quite quickly for people to finish the negotiations \u2013 or they just try to barrel it all through. We just do not know.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Meanwhile, ministers are arriving at the venue.<\/p>\n Britain\u2019s Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband walks at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), in Belem, Brazil, November 22, 2025. Photograph: Adriano Machado\/ReutersWopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, arrives at the EU meeting room during the COP30 Photograph: Pablo Porci\u00fancula\/AFP\/Getty ImagesShare<\/a><\/p>\n Good morning and welcome to our coverage of Cop30<\/a> in Belem.<\/p>\n We are at the business end of the climate summit. Today appears to be the day that we will get an agreement in some form, but anything is still possible at this stage. Delegates are tired \u2013 ministers will have likely negotiated into the early hours \u2013 and return flights are getting closer. We are still waiting for a revised text for governments to debate at a closing plenary, which is set to begin at 10am local time (1pm in London). But as always, timings are flexible.<\/p>\n Cop30 president Andre Correa do Lago<\/strong> has arrived at the venue. He was photographed whispering into his phone a few minutes ago. Countries appear to be still far apart<\/a> on any agreement to draw up a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. Can do Lago and his negotiating team thread the needle?<\/p>\n If you would like to catch up on the state of play, our reporters on the ground have been hard at work summarising proceedings. Here is a summary of the headlines:<\/p>\n The UK energy secretary Ed Miliband<\/strong> said a deal to create a roadmap away from fossil fuels needed to happen \u201cone way or another\u201d<\/a> \u2013 even if it was a voluntary process.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n One representative from a country vulnerable to the climate crisis said: \u201cSometimes it\u2019s like we are arguing with robots<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Observers claimed the Arab group of nations had warned any mention of phasing out fossil fuels in final negotiations would see the talks collapse<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n The architect of the Paris climate deal, Laurence Tubiana<\/strong>, said countries should not fear pursuing a deal on a roadmap.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Turkey and Australia has agreed to the details on hosting next year\u2019s Cop31 summit, that will be held in Turkey. Turkey will take on the Cop31 presidency and an Australian \u2013 energy minister Chris Bowen<\/strong> \u2013 will be appointed vice-president and \u201cpresident of negotiations\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Africa governments were still pushing for a tripling of the finance available from rich countries to help the poor world adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n AP reported<\/a> that Juan Carlos Monterrey<\/strong> Gomez, a top negotiator for Panama, had said the decades-long United Nations process risks \u201cbecoming a clown show\u201d for the omission of burning of fuels such as oil, gas and coal as causes of global warming from the final text.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago speaks on the phone during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), in Belem, Brazil, November 22, 2025. Photograph: Adriano Machado\/ReutersShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a007.46 EST<\/p>\n![\"Damien](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1763822119_983_Damien_Gayle.png\")
Damien Gayle<\/p>\n\n
![\"Damian](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1763822120_423_Damian-Carrington,-R.png\")
Damian Carrington<\/p>\n\n
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