{"id":590027,"date":"2025-11-24T03:52:11","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T03:52:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/590027\/"},"modified":"2025-11-24T03:52:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T03:52:11","slug":"rachel-reeves-hopes-trade-deals-can-save-britains-budget-economists-arent-convinced-politico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/590027\/","title":{"rendered":"Rachel Reeves hopes trade deals can save Britain\u2019s budget. Economists aren\u2019t convinced. \u2013 POLITICO"},"content":{"rendered":"

With a difficult budget looming, the chancellor has increasingly turned her gaze overseas in her elusive search for economic growth. And with the Office for Budget Responsibility expected to downgrade the U.K.\u2019s productivity outlook before the budget, Reeves is urging the fiscal watchdog to positively \u201cscore\u201d new trade deals according to how much growth they might deliver.<\/p>\n

But her efforts may be in vain. Far from being the magic bullet that will reinvigorate the economy, the benefits of trade deals may take years to materialize \u2014 and some government claims appear to be overstated, experts have told POLITICO.<\/p>\n

EU \u2018reset\u2019 hopes<\/p>\n

By the government\u2019s estimation, its plans to \u201creset\u201d its relationship with the European Union will add nearly \u00a39 billion to the U.K. economy by 2040, equivalent to a GDP boost of 0.3 percent. Key elements include deals on agrifood, energy trading, and a youth mobility scheme.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Separate analysis by John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London, is more optimistic, predicting a GDP boost of between 0.3 and 0.7 percent over ten years as a result of the agreement. The biggest uplifts, he claims, would come from a youth mobility deal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But negotiations on key elements of the deal have only just begun, and Springford admits details are still \u201ca bit sketchy.\u201d As a result, he says, it would be difficult for the OBR to accept Reeves\u2019 ask to score these deals<\/a>, which would also take a long time to play out.<\/p>\n

Even if the government\u2019s estimates are met, he added, the deal will do little to reverse the overall damage caused by Brexit, which the OBR estimates will reduce the U.K.\u2019s long-run productivity by 4 percent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With a difficult budget looming, the chancellor has increasingly turned her gaze overseas in her elusive search for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":590028,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5018,3,4],"tags":[1212,186,1394,802,748,1194,39794,2437,1442,8514,6852,31314,32,1396,35,393,1214,4884,1195,730,185942,2441,809,704,1144,129321,619,2444,712,6861,1218,479,1200,1201,6862,16,15,49,1764],"class_list":{"0":"post-590027","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-britain","8":"category-uk","9":"category-united-kingdom","10":"tag-aluminum","11":"tag-australia","12":"tag-big-tech","13":"tag-brexit","14":"tag-britain","15":"tag-budget","16":"tag-chris-bryant","17":"tag-companies","18":"tag-competition","19":"tag-customs","20":"tag-customs-union","21":"tag-department-for-business-and-trade","22":"tag-donald-trump","23":"tag-dumping-duties","24":"tag-energy","25":"tag-england","26":"tag-exports","27":"tag-great-britain","28":"tag-growth","29":"tag-india","30":"tag-james-fitzgerald","31":"tag-markets","32":"tag-negotiations","33":"tag-new-zealand","34":"tag-northern-ireland","35":"tag-political-economy","36":"tag-rachel-reeves","37":"tag-regulatory","38":"tag-scotland","39":"tag-single-market","40":"tag-steel","41":"tag-tariffs","42":"tag-tax","43":"tag-trade","44":"tag-trade-agreements","45":"tag-uk","46":"tag-united-kingdom","47":"tag-united-states","48":"tag-wales"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/590028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}