A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.<\/p>\n
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit<\/a> and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.<\/p>\n That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland<\/a> leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland<\/a>.<\/p>\n Fintan O\u2019Toole<\/a>, the author and Irish Times columnist, and Sam McBride, the Northern Ireland editor of the Belfast Telegraph, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.<\/p>\n \u201cThe lesson of Brexit<\/a> hasn\u2019t been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly,\u201d O\u2019Toole said this week. \u201cI would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable.\u201d<\/p>\n The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland<\/a>, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy under its project Analysing and Researching Ireland, North and South (Arins).<\/p>\n They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month on the eve of the centenary of a Boundary Commission that cemented Ireland\u2019s partition.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016,\u201d said O\u2019Toole.<\/p>\n \u201cWe do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don\u2019t know quite what it is that they have won.\u201d<\/p>\n Under the Good Friday agreement<\/a>, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.<\/p>\n Sinn F\u00e9in<\/a> and other nationalists say that moment is looming<\/a>, and a non-profit called Ireland\u2019s Future<\/a> has rallied support<\/a>, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.<\/p>\n Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn\u2019t for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?\u201d<\/p>\n In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.<\/p>\n Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s huge interest in the subject but there hasn\u2019t quite been a debate,\u201d said O\u2019Toole. \u201cDebate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides.\u201d<\/p>\n