{"id":59309,"date":"2025-04-29T04:53:09","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T04:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/59309\/"},"modified":"2025-04-29T04:53:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T04:53:09","slug":"an-ugly-ukraine-deal-was-predictable-but-this-will-merely-pause-russias-revanchism-politico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/59309\/","title":{"rendered":"An ugly Ukraine deal was predictable \u2014 but this will merely pause Russia\u2019s revanchism \u2013 POLITICO"},"content":{"rendered":"

So, is this rare reproach and economic threat responsible for some sort of shift in Moscow? Is that the reason Trump and his aides believe they\u2019re nearer a deal? Or is Zelenskyy the one caving?<\/p>\n

No matter what, a healthy dose of skepticism remains in order. Russia\u2019s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov appeared to harden Moscow\u2019s position on annexed territories in eastern Ukraine<\/a> in an interview this weekend. And we\u2019ve heard optimistic noises from the Trump administration about the proximity of a deal before. Further caution is also advisable, as the deal\u2019s broad contours have not actually shifted much: It still includes Ukraine never joining NATO, effectively ceding much of the territory Russia has occupied, U.S. recognition of the Crimean peninsula, and lifting sanctions on Russia.<\/p>\n

The U.S. position is that in return, Ukraine will be given a \u201crobust security guarantee\u201d by European countries and other friendly states acting as guarantors, but the details on that are murky. And in addition to deeper energy and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, Kyiv will have to sign a minerals deal giving the U.S. half of the revenue from its natural resources, while the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant \u2014 controlled by Kyiv but operated by the U.S. \u2014 will have to supply both Ukraine and Russia with electricity.<\/p>\n

\"\"There will be no accountability for documented Russian war crimes, nor will there be any clear compensation from Moscow. | Sergey Dolzhenko\/EPA-EFE<\/p>\n

There is no doubt this is a terrible deal for Ukraine. The bloodletting may halt, but not only will Kyiv emerge from this brutal war dismembered, it will also have no credible security guarantee, as Washington is declining to backstop the Europeans. There will be no accountability for documented Russian war crimes, nor will there be any clear compensation from Moscow, as far as we know, for the damage it inflicted. (While the latter is included in the text, there\u2019s no explanation of where the money will come from \u2014 or how much.)<\/p>\n

This is hardly the \u201cpeace through strength\u201d strategy<\/a> that Trump\u2019s increasingly sidelined Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg had outlined: \u201cWe tell the Ukrainians, \u2018You\u2019ve got to come to the table, and if you don\u2019t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up.\u2019 And you tell Putin, \u2018He\u2019s got to come to the table and if you don\u2019t come to the table, then we\u2019ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field,\u2019\u201d Kellogg had said.<\/p>\n

But only half of that equation was put into effect. Ukraine is the only party making concessions. Furthermore, this will mark the first time in postwar history that European borders will be redrawn by force of arms \u2014 a bad precedent in itself.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"So, is this rare reproach and economic threat responsible for some sort of shift in Moscow? Is that…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":59310,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7655],"tags":[12915,768,5293,32,9204,660,2820,2821,809,332,7339,811,10243,7070,657,19655,49,30878,333,2601,771,335],"class_list":{"0":"post-59309","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-russia","8":"tag-aid-and-development","9":"tag-borders","10":"tag-diplomacy","11":"tag-donald-trump","12":"tag-keith-kellogg","13":"tag-kremlin","14":"tag-marco-rubio","15":"tag-nato","16":"tag-negotiations","17":"tag-russia","18":"tag-russia-sanctions","19":"tag-security","20":"tag-sergey-lavrov","21":"tag-steve-witkoff","22":"tag-ukraine","23":"tag-ukrainian-politics","24":"tag-united-states","25":"tag-unpacked","26":"tag-vladimir-putin","27":"tag-volodymyr-zelenskyy","28":"tag-war","29":"tag-war-in-ukraine"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114419466508062943","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}