{"id":595946,"date":"2025-11-26T22:59:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T22:59:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/595946\/"},"modified":"2025-11-26T22:59:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T22:59:29","slug":"can-europe-prevent-an-unjust-peace-in-ukraine-and-what-is-at-stake-if-it-fails-world-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/595946\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Europe prevent an unjust \u2018peace\u2019 in Ukraine \u2013 and what is at stake if it fails? | World news"},"content":{"rendered":"

With Ukraine\u2019s future back on the geopolitical carving block, Europe is facing its own moment of truth. Is it ready to defend Kyiv against the imposition of a lopsided \u201cpeace\u201d that rewards Vladimir Putin<\/a> and undermines the entire continent\u2019s security?<\/p>\n

Not for the first time, European governments were left in the dark about secret US-backed proposals to end Russia\u2019s war. Leaked to the media last week, the latest incendiary 28-point plan was so slanted in Russia\u2019s favour that there are suspicions<\/a> it was partly drafted in the Kremlin (complete with clunkily translated<\/a> Russian syntax).<\/p>\n

The terms of this shockingly punitive plan would freeze battle lines but require Kyiv to cede swathes of territory that it still controls; drastically curb the size of its army; accept amnesty for Russian atrocities and war crimes; and stay out of Nato for good. No wonder President Zelenskyy told his compatriots<\/a> that it left them facing one of the most difficult moments of their history.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, in a hurry to claim credit for peace \u2013 seemingly at any price \u2013 Donald Trump gave Ukraine an ultimatum: sign off on Russia\u2019s shopping list by Thanksgiving or, it was implied, risk losing US intelligence and military aid: a not-so festive deadline<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The days since have felt like a repetition of August, when Trump rolled out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska and left sidelined European leaders dashing to the White House en masse, flanking Zelenskyy, to limit the damage.<\/p>\n

This time, despite Trump upbraiding the Ukraine president for \u201czero gratitude\u201d, emergency talks in Geneva have reportedly tweaked the plan<\/a> to \u201cuphold Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty\u201d. Trump has softened his language<\/a> (and deadline), claiming that negotiations with Ukraine are bearing fruit and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will soon be back in Moscow.<\/p>\n

If a more palatable deal is in the offing, it may be because France, Germany and the UK have helped Ukraine<\/a> to push back. It is not only about solidarity: these countries may be required to put \u201cboots on the ground\u201d to uphold an eventual deal.<\/p>\n

Foot in the door<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Europeans have agency\u2019 \u2026 Steve Witkoff, left, seen here in April, is expected to return to Moscow. Photograph: Vyacheslav Prokofyev\/AP<\/p>\n

There is, however, no reason to believe that Moscow will buy into any plan that doesn\u2019t involve Kyiv\u2019s capitulation \u2013 or even that Russia<\/a> seeks to end the war. \u201cPutin sees no problem with continuing the war,\u201d Tatiana Stanovaya, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the Guardian\u2019s Russian affairs reporter, Pjotr Sauer.<\/p>\n

At such a perilous moment then, the onus is more than ever on Europe to demand that Ukraine<\/a> gets a just peace \u2013 both morally and out of self-interest for the security of Ukraine\u2019s European neighbours.<\/p>\n

But how can Europe prevent a US stitch-up, particularly if Moscow maintains its most unreasonable territorial demands and Trump loses patience with Zelenskyy? Getting ahead of any Trump\/Putin summit is key, say analysts. Ukraine\u2019s European backers need be clearer with Trump that Ukraine\u2019s security is Europe\u2019s security<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cEuropeans complain about not being at the table, but they have agency,\u201d Jana Kobzova, a Ukraine expert with the European Council for Foreign Relations, said on the thinktank\u2019s podcast<\/a>. \u201cThey can put their foot in the door and say these are the things that we are not going to tolerate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Europe is already shouldering most of the cost of Ukraine\u2019s resistance, even if it has been too hesitant, divided, or complacent to give Kyiv the negotiating cards it needs.<\/p>\n

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Rouble roulette<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018They [Moscow] want us to believe they can continue this war for ever\u2019 \u2026 European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Photograph: Geert Vanden Wijngaert\/AP<\/p>\n

The most game-changing piece of European leverage could turn out to a neuralgic (and Belgium says<\/a> legally iffy) EU plan for a \u20ac140bn \u201creparations loan\u201d for Ukraine<\/a>, secured on billions in Russian central bank deposits, frozen in the west by EU sanctions. The confiscated assets (mostly held in a repository in Belgium) could transform Ukraine\u2019s near-bankrupt status<\/a> and help it win the war. But the proposal also stipulated using $100bn of these Russian assets for investment, with the US keeping 50% of the profits. Now the EU must urgently decide if it wants to move on the assets first, or dig deep to find alternative cash.<\/p>\n

Brussels suspects that Russia\u2019s economy is in a worse state than it will acknowledge, thanks to such measures as a new EU ban<\/a> on Russian gas imports. \u201cThey [Moscow] want us to believe they can continue this war for ever. This is not true,\u201d Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative and former Estonian PM, told the BBC.<\/p>\n

The stakes are perilous for Europe if Moscow gets away with changing borders by force. \u201cIf Ukraine capitulates as per Russia\u2019s plan, war in the rest of Europe is one step closer, and Europeans understand this. So it\u2019s not out of the goodness of their heart that they would stick with Ukraine, but because they understand that their own security is at stake,\u201d Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs and a Guardian Europe contributor, told me.<\/p>\n

For Tocci, the most likely medium-term scenario is not Ukrainian surrender, but one in which the US and Russia (egged on by US hawks, including JD Vance) reach a bilateral deal, leaving Europe to stick with Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn this scenario, Europeans should stop deluding themselves that they can work with Trump on Ukraine. They should warmly thank the US president and persuade him to step aside and place his bets on another conflict to get his Nobel peace prize. Either way, the war goes on for now\u201d.<\/p>\n

To receive the complete version of This Is Europe in your inbox every Wednesday, please subscribe here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With Ukraine\u2019s future back on the geopolitical carving block, Europe is facing its own moment of truth. Is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":595947,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[2000,299,657],"class_list":{"0":"post-595946","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-eu","9":"tag-europe","10":"tag-ukraine"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115618484485635465","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}