{"id":596000,"date":"2025-11-26T23:35:17","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T23:35:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/596000\/"},"modified":"2025-11-26T23:35:17","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T23:35:17","slug":"incredible-champions-league-elimination-scenario-could-see-newcastle-united-lose-out-on-165m","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/596000\/","title":{"rendered":"Incredible Champions League elimination scenario could see Newcastle United lose out on \u00a3165m"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Newcastle United threw away three points against Marseille in the Champions League on Tuesday night, and it could cost them a fair bit of money down the line.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Going into this week\u2019s Champions League<\/a> games, Newcastle United<\/a> looked in a healthy position with nine points from four games.<\/p>\n

How far do you expect Newcastle United to go in the Champions League this season? <\/p>\n

However, despite leading in France at half time, the Magpies lost their lead immediately after the break and now will slip away from the top eight in the league table after the rest of the Champions League fixtures tonight.<\/p>\n

Eddie Howe<\/a> has admitted Newcastle are stretched<\/a> due to competing on various fronts with a depleted squad. But, if they can\u2019t pull it together from here on out and progress in the competition, they\u2019ll be suffering financially.<\/p>\n

\"NewcastlePhoto by Jose Breton\/Pics Action\/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesFinancial benefits of Champions League success<\/p>\n

With the prospect of missing out on the Champions League knockout phase now a real possibility for Newcastle, Geordie Boot Boys<\/strong> spoke to our resident football finance expert Adam Williams about what this all means for the Magpies.<\/p>\n

He said: \u201cFor what it\u2019s worth, I think Newcastle United will get through, but let\u2019s assume they either A) don\u2019t finish in the top eight or B) somehow manage not to finish in the top 24. In that second scenario, they are probably going to only have taken another point or two, which is going to be worth about \u00a31m in prize money.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy contrast, if they win their three remaining games, they\u2019ll pick up about \u00a35.5m from UEFA, in addition to the flat participation fee and contributions from the value pillar, which is determined by club coefficients and the value of countries\u2019 domestic TV deals. By my count, they are probably at around \u00a340m in revenue from the Champions League this season.\u201d<\/p>\n

Newcastle\u2019s last Champions League run<\/a> ended in heartbreak, something they\u2019re desperate to avoid now. If they can get through the league phase, it\u2019ll deliver a nice financial boost, too.<\/p>\n

Williams added: \u201cIf you finish in the top eight, you also get a bonus of about \u00a31.85m, and that it in addition to a league ranking bonus of around \u00a3260,000 for every place you finish higher in the table \u2013 i.e., the difference between 8th and 18th is roughly \u00a32.6m. <\/p>\n

\u201cTeams nine to 16 then get a qualification bonus of about \u00a30.85m. So those are the rough figures we have to work backwards from.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"EddiePhoto by Serena Taylor\/Newcastle United via Getty ImagesWhat happens if Newcastle United drop out of Champions League?<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the best case scenario, but what about the other side of the coin? If Newcastle were to finish outside the qualifying spots altogether, or fail in the play-offs, it could be a very expensive failure indeed.<\/p>\n

On this, Williams added: \u201cIf you miss out on the last-16, that\u2019s around \u00a39.5m you lose. The quarter-finals, it\u2019s another \u00a311m, semi-finals \u00a313m, final \u00a316m, and the winner gets another \u00a36m or so on top of that. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo let\u2019s say Newcastle, hypothetically, lose their last three games and don\u2019t even make the play-offs. That would be about \u00a310m lost in prize money, plus potentially up to \u00a355m in available prize money for going all the way to the final. So we\u2019re at a figure of about \u00a365m \u2013 that is the opportunity cost.\u201d<\/p>\n

How much money Newcastle United can and will earn in the Champions League this season. <\/p>\n

By qualifying: \u00a315.7m<\/p>\n

By winning a league stage game: \u00a31.8m<\/p>\n

By drawing a league stage game: \u00a3590,000<\/p>\n

By reaching the last-16: \u00a31.7m<\/p>\n

By finishing 9-24th in the league stage: \u00a3840,000<\/p>\n

By reaching the round of 16: \u00a39.4m<\/p>\n

By reaching the quarter-finals: \u00a310.7m <\/p>\n

By reaching the semi-finals: \u00a312.9m <\/p>\n

By reaching the final: \u00a315.9m<\/p>\n

By winning the competition: \u00a321.5m. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s not all, with Williams stressing that even simple matchday revenue would be a big loss for the Magpies if this doesn\u2019t go the way they hope.<\/p>\n

He continued: \u201cIf they finished outside the top two-thirds, they are potentially missing out on up to another five matches at St James\u2019 Park<\/a>. That\u2019s going to be the best part of \u00a315m or more. Commercially, they would probably lose seven figures in bonuses, retail and so on. <\/p>\n

\u201cBeyond that, there is even the question of potentially the Club World Cup where the winner can get up to \u00a385m, as well as the Super Cup, which is worth a few million.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo at the low end, not qualifying for the knockouts could be worth, say, \u00a315m. But at the high end of the spectrum in a dream scenario for Newcastle where they go on and win the tournament, it could be \u00a3165m-plus.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given Newcastle\u2019s position with PSR<\/a> (and the incoming Squad Cost Ratio rules), every bit of available revenue is massively important to building up headroom that they can then spend in the transfer market.<\/p>\n

Newcastle aren\u2019t given much chance of qualifying for the Champions League<\/a> again for 2026\/27, so they need to make the most of every opportunity they have this year.<\/p>\n

Join Our Newsletter <\/p>\n

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