German Chancellor Friedrich Merz\u2019s honeymoon is over. He came to power promising bold, decisive reform. He quickly transformed the German military and promised the country\u2019s most sweeping reforms in a generation. The nation waited to see what revolution would follow.<\/p>\n
It is still waiting.<\/p>\n
A Soaring Military<\/strong><\/p>\n Merz has brought dramatic changes to the military. The Telegraph\u2019s headline from a fortnight ago could have come from the Trumpet: \u201cGermany Is Arming Itself to the Teeth to Transform Europe Again<\/a>.\u201d It said:<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n In the face of Russian aggression, the German war machine is now rising once again\u2014and showing it is a force to be reckoned with.<\/p>\n
Under radical reforms pushed through by Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, Berlin has this year thrown off all fiscal constraints on defense expenditure to build Europe\u2019s most powerful army.<\/p>\n
The overhaul has paved the way for massive equipment purchases of tanks, artillery, fighter planes and warships costing hundreds of billions of pounds, as the Bundeswehr prepares to face up to the threat posed by Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n
\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Politico, also, is almost sounding a trumpet, declaring \u201cGermany\u2019s Rearmament Upends Europe\u2019s Power Balance<\/a>.\u201d It states:<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n For decades, the European Union ran on an unspoken understanding: Germany handled the money; France handled the military. Now the tables are turning.<\/p>\n
As Germany aims to become Europe\u2019s predominant military power, the political balance is shifting. In France, there\u2019s a scramble to stay relevant, while in Poland, Germany\u2019s rearmament is stirring old ghosts and creating a sense that a Berlin-Warsaw alliance might be the most effective way to keep Russia at bay.<\/p>\n
\u201cEverywhere I go in the world, from the Baltics to Asia, people are asking Germany to take on more responsibility,\u201d said Christoph Schmid, a German Social Democratic lawmaker on the Bundestag\u2019s defense committee. \u201cThe expectation is that Germany will finally step up and match its economic weight with defense power.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Both news outlets admit Germany once invested heavily in American weapons, but for this massive buildup, it is Germany first. Where American purchases are unavoidable, Germany generally insists that at least part of the production be shifted to Germany.<\/p>\n Germany isn\u2019t just spending slightly more than France\u2014it is on course to double France\u2019s spending. One official of the European Union told Politico it was \u201ctelluric,\u201d or earthshaking. Another said, \u201cIt\u2019s the most important thing happening right now at [the] EU level.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIt could be frightening, no doubt,\u201d one EU diplomat said.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, America wants to bow out of nato and leave Germany in charge. \u201cI look forward to the day when Germany comes to the United States and says that we\u2019re ready to take over the Supreme Allied Commander position,\u201d Matthew Whitaker, U.S. ambassador to nato, told the Berlin Security Conference last week. \u201cI think we\u2019re a long way away from that, but I look forward to those discussions.\u201d<\/p>\n In wartime, the supreme commander controls the deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops and perhaps even nuclear weapons. Since U.S. troops and equipment form the backbone of these forces, the supreme commander has always been American. Whitaker is suggesting that nato get a new backbone.<\/p>\n While America is ready to hand the keys to Germany, it is completely ignorant that Berlin stands on the brink of a massive political transformation.<\/p>\n Back Down to Earth<\/strong><\/p>\n The trouble first began over plans to enlarge the German military from 180,000 to 260,000 personnel. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius wanted to shift gently toward conscription, having all men, and any women who wanted, fill in a questionnaire assessing their fitness for military service. It was supposed to nudge young Germans toward signing up.<\/p>\n The Christian Democratic Union (cdu), the largest party in the coalition, is in a bigger hurry. If too few people volunteer, it wanted a lottery system to draft young men at random to make up the shortfall. To stop that, Pistorius torpedoed his own bill, threatening to lead Social Democrats in voting against it.<\/p>\n A compromise was hammered out, with the new bill opening the door to a lottery. Another vote in the Bundestag will be necessary to implement it. This showed that the government is far from a well-oiled machine.<\/p>\n Germany\u2019s current crisis over pensions could be more serious. The Social Democrats want to fix pensions at 48 percent of average earnings. But with the number of those in work shrinking and the number of pensioners growing, this places a growing burden on workers. Merz doesn\u2019t like it, but he supports the change as part of doing business in a coalition.<\/p>\n Eighteen of Merz\u2019s fellow cdu members under the age of 35 disagree: They\u2019ve stalled the government for weeks, refusing to support the compromise.<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t about pensions. This coalition will have the same issue with anything it tries. Merz leads a coalition of the mainstream left and right\u2014Germany\u2019s equivalent of Democrats and Republicans. Yet support for both parties has plummeted so much that this \u201cgrand\u201d coalition has a majority of just 12 in the 630-seat Bundestag. A handful from either party can block anything.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are not surprised that this coalition is acting the way it is,\u201d wrote EuroIntelligence. \u201cWe had three grand coalitions under [Angela] Merkel, during which the country laid the foundation of its economic decline. Why would grand coalition number four be any different?\u201d It condemned Merz\u2019s \u201clack of leadership quality, poor negotiation skills, and \u2026 tendency toward flippancy.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe are not ruling out that a future German government might pass reforms, but we can rule out that it will happen under this coalition,\u201d it wrote. \u201cWe can also rule out that it will happen under Merz no matter what coalition he leads.\u201d<\/p>\n And it\u2019s not just economic analysts getting fed up.<\/p>\n Who Leads Germany?<\/strong><\/p>\n Poland was irate at former Chancellor Angela Merkel for approving undersea gas pipelines with Russia. When confronted privately over the issue, Merkel said she was \u201chelpless\u201d in the face of German business leaders who wanted the pipelines built. \u201cThe German businesses have a lot of power, and \u2026 they even overruled the chancellor of Germany,\u201d commented Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry on a Key of David<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThose leaders that keep rising and sometimes even overthrow the chancellor,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s how powerful they are, because they all get their corporation powers together, and do they ever have a big clout!\u201d<\/p>\n But the businesses they lead are struggling. Volkswagen Group, Germany\u2019s biggest company, posted its first lost since covid-19 in the third quarter of this year\u2014losing $1.25 billion.<\/p>\n The German economy once revolved around buying cheap raw materials and fuel from Russia, creating high-quality machinery, and selling it around the world. That economic model no longer works, and the only big German businesses not struggling are weapons manufacturers.<\/p>\n On September 22, leaders from four top business associations made their disappointment clear at a secret meeting with Merz. Bild reported that they \u201cgave the chancellor a thorough grilling for an hour and a half\u201d and that the \u201ckey demand made of Friedrich Merz was to pick up the pace on social reforms, reducing bureaucracy, and modernizing the state.\u201d<\/p>\n This month, 32 business associations signed a joint letter opposing the pension reforms. The German Council of Economic Experts also gave its verdict on the German government: It does not expect the economy to improve next year. \u201cWe see the report as a vote of no-confidence in the government by a non-partisan panel,\u201d wrote EuroIntelligence.<\/p>\n Merz came to power promising massive pro-business reforms. Six months into his government, those reforms are nowhere to be seen.<\/p>\n This week, Die Familienunternehmer\u2014the family entrepreneur group\u2014broke a major taboo by openly talking to Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland (AfD), the far-right group that is currently Germany\u2019s most popular political party. The Pioneer reported that others are talking to the AfD more discreetly. \u201cFor a long time, business leaders struggled with the AfD,\u201d it wrote. \u201cNow lobbyists are reaching out\u2014some subtly, others quite openly.\u201d<\/p>\n Is Die Familienunternehmer breaking a taboo for other, bigger industry groups to follow? Is it a warning to Merz that German industry has other leaders if he disappoints them?<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t really a Merz problem. A different chancellor would have the same difficulty getting anything through this hostile coalition. Nor would fresh elections change much. The AfD has grown in popularity, but an election seems likely to be just as inconclusive as the last one.<\/p>\n There seems to be no democratic way to get the reform that business leaders desperately want.<\/p>\n
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