Net migration figures due on Thursday are predicted to drop to pre-Brexit levels of about 300,000, according to a thinktank.<\/p>\n
British Future, which calculated the drop in overall migration, also found that most Britons remain unaware of the falling numbers, and expect the figures to rise or stay the same.<\/p>\n
Last week, the Office for National Statistics<\/a> (ONS) said its updated estimates, which include a more accurate count of emigration by British nationals, showed a higher and earlier peak in net migration of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. It had previously estimated that net migration peaked at 906,000 in the year to 30 June 2023.<\/p>\n Using new methodology, the figures show cumulative net migration over the period from 2021 to 2024 was about 97,000 lower than previously thought.<\/p>\n The ONS now estimates that net migration fell to 345,000 in the year to December 2024, as emigration by UK nationals increased.<\/p>\n By examining UK visa data, British Future believes the figures will drop further \u2013 but the continued drop is not being registered by the UK population.<\/p>\n New research published by Ipsos\/British Future found that only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in one year\u2019s time, despite net migration halving last year and continuing to fall.<\/p>\n More than twice as many people (38%) expect net migration to increase, with 31% expecting it to remain the same.<\/p>\n Most of the public also thinks net migration increased last year, according to the research \u2013 when in fact numbers halved.<\/p>\n The new findings from the Ipsos\/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year.<\/p>\n Government proposals released last week outlining restrictions on settlement and benefits<\/a> for those coming to the UK are more restrictive than most of the public would choose, the research finds.<\/p>\n Half (50%) think migrants working in graduate-level jobs should only wait five years or less before qualifying for settlement, and 53% think those doing mid-skilled jobs should wait less than 10 years.<\/p>\n Dissatisfaction with how the government is dealing with immigration is at 56% \u2013 an increase from 48% last summer, though still lower than the 69% who felt dissatisfied with the Conservative government in the February 2024 tracker.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what\u2019s happening and why it matters<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n Of those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason given \u2013 by 73% of dissatisfied respondents \u2013 is: \u201cThe government is not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings.\u201d The other top reasons given are \u201cbeing too generous to migrants\/asylum seekers\u201d, (65%) and \u201callowing too many people to claim asylum in Britain\u201d (63%).<\/p>\n Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: \u201cNet migration is falling, with today\u2019s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 \u2013 yet our political debate hasn\u2019t caught up. As numbers move closer to \u2018normal\u2019 levels, politicians can\u2019t just keep competing over who will cut them further.<\/p>\n \u201cThe risk for Keir Starmer\u2019s government, which is promising to get a grip on numbers, is that constant crisis messaging only reinforces the public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control.\u201d<\/p>\n