<\/p>\n
Shoppers pass through Alexanderplatz during Black Friday sales in Berlin, Germany, on Nov. 28.<\/p>\n
(Bloomberg) — A euro-zone inflation reading that\u2019s likely to stay close to 2% should be enough to satisfy officials that they can avoid tweaking interest rates in December.<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg<\/p>\n
Consumer prices probably rose 2.1% in November from a year earlier, according to the median of 29 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey ahead of Tuesday\u2019s release. The underlying measure, which strips out volatile elements such as energy, is seen remaining at 2.4%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Such readings for the final inflation numbers before the European Central Bank\u2019s Dec. 18 decision might harden the resolve of policymakers to keep borrowing costs unchanged. That would leave them able to focus instead on their pivotal quarterly forecasts, featuring the first outlook stretching as far as 2028.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Officials find themselves in a holding pattern at present, with no clear consensus on what the next move for rates should be. Mixed signals from national reports on Friday might feed that sense of ambiguity, after stronger-than-expected inflation in Germany and Spain was balanced by weaker-than-anticipated numbers for France and Italy.<\/p>\n
If there\u2019s any bias within the Governing Council at present, it might be toward scouring the data for upward pressure on price growth. Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg Television on Nov. 26 that \u201cthe risk of undershooting is limited, in my view.\u201d President Christine Lagarde, who\u2019s repeatedly highlighted the good position that policy is currently at, may offer her own perspective in testimony to lawmakers in Brussels on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The unresolved sense of direction from the ECB is being mirrored by conflicting views from economists. Bloomberg Economics, for example, predicts inflation will slow in future months, adding to the case for rate cuts.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cEuro-area inflation will likely remain steady in November at just above the central bank\u2019s 2% target, before resuming a sustained deceleration in December. That may add pressure on the ECB to ease policy next year, even though the Governing Council is currently resisting such a move.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Simona Delle Chiaie and David Powell. For full analysis, click here<\/p>\n
BNP Paribas, in a recent note, offered a different take. \u201cAs we move into 2026, we expect the ECB to see stronger growth and inflation than it currently expects, which should further strengthen the case for a prolonged rate hold,\u201d wrote Paul Hollingsworth, the bank\u2019s head of developed markets economics. \u201cWe continue to see the next move as a hike.\u201d<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, the Paris-based OECD will release new forecasts on Tuesday, a consumer-price gauge is coming from the US, policymakers in the UK will share their financial-stability assessment, and Brazil may come to the end of its longest streak of growth in decades.<\/p>\n
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what\u2019s coming up in the global economy.<\/p>\n
US and Canada<\/p>\n
Federal Reserve officials will get a dated reading on their preferred inflation gauge before settling in the following week for their final policy meeting of the year. On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its September income and spending report \u2014 long delayed because of the government shutdown.<\/p>\n
The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economists project a third-straight 0.2% increase in the core index. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering just below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky and above the Fed\u2019s goal.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Against such a backdrop, the debate among officials will largely center on the job market and whether rates should be reduced for a third straight time when policymakers meet Dec. 9-10. Investors see a cut as more likely than not.<\/p>\n
While the latest jobs report showed a larger-than-expected rise in payrolls, the gain was concentrated in just a few industries. The unemployment rate ticked up to an almost four-year high, and there\u2019s been a steady drumbeat of layoff news from companies.<\/p>\n
Other economic data in the coming week include ADP private employment figures for November, as well as Institute for Supply Management surveys of manufacturers and service providers. The Fed is also scheduled to release September industrial production figures.<\/p>\n
In Canada, meanwhile, jobs data for November are expected to show persistent weakness as the US trade war batters key industries and weighs on broader hiring. Some analysts see employers shedding staff after two strong reports made up for losses over the summer.<\/p>\n
The Bank of Canada plans to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% as long as the economy and inflation evolve as expected, and it foresees a soft labor market with weak wage growth.<\/p>\n
Asia<\/p>\n
Asia steps into the first week of December with a packed calendar \u2014 led by a wave of manufacturing purchasing manager indexes along with price indicators that will help gauge the region\u2019s momentum into year-end.<\/p>\n
The tone will be shaped by remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday, with markets alert to any signals on the likelihood of a December rate hike.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Australia begins the week with housing data that\u2019s expected to confirm another month of gains, alongside a run of third-quarter figures \u2014 including company profits and inventories \u2014 ahead of its GDP release on Wednesday, when South Korea publishes its revised figures too.<\/p>\n
Also on Monday, Japan issues a broad set of quarterly indicators, covering capital spending, sales, and profits, that will feed into GDP revisions the following week.<\/p>\n
Indonesia reports inflation and trade data. A sweep of PMIs from across Asia \u2014 including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam \u2014 will offer an early reading on factory conditions as global demand remains uneven.<\/p>\n
Tuesday brings New Zealand\u2019s third-quarter terms of trade, followed by South Korea\u2019s inflation for November. Australia reports its current account balance as well as government spending for the September quarter.<\/p>\n
Thursday features Japan\u2019s weekly portfolio-investment flows and Australia\u2019s household-spending for October, together with the latest trade numbers.<\/p>\n
Attention turns to India on Friday, where the country\u2019s central bank is expected to lower the repurchase, or repo, rate, making borrowing cheaper for banks and in turn for households and businesses.<\/p>\n
Also on Friday, South Korea releases current account data, Japan has household spending, while the Philippines and Taiwan report inflation readings for November. Singapore\u2019s retail-sales report will show whether the improvement seen last quarter carried into October.<\/p>\n
Europe, Middle East, Africa<\/p>\n
While the threat of post-budget fiscal turmoil in markets appears to have subsided, the Bank of England is likely to identify other financial stability dangers when it releases its latest risk assessment on Tuesday, accompanied by a press conference with Governor Andrew Bailey.<\/p>\n
With several global peers having released their own analyses in the past month, risks ranging from a stock bubble to parallels with the subprime debt crisis might come up. Little more than a month ago, Bailey warned of \u201calarm bells\u201d in private credit.<\/p>\n
In Switzerland, a second monthly reading of inflation barely above zero may arrive on Thursday, keeping pressure on the central bank there. The following day, Sweden\u2019s measure of consumer-price growth targeted by officials is seen weakening drastically, to a six-month low.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Aside from inflation, the neighboring euro-zone will see national data pointing to the state of manufacturing at the start of the fourth quarter. German factory orders, along with French and Spanish industrial production, will come out on Friday.<\/p>\n
In Ukraine \u2014 the scene of government upheaval after the exit of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy\u2019s chief of staff \u2014 parliament will debate the draft of the 2026 budget on Tuesday amid demands from the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n
In Poland the following day, the central bank will decide whether to continue with rate cuts after a series of reductions spurred by lower-than-expected inflation. A majority of economists predict it will do so.<\/p>\n
Data in South Africa on Tuesday will likely show economic growth slowed slightly in the third quarter, to 0.5% from 0.8%, as the US\u2019s 30% tariff on some exports weighed on manufacturing.<\/p>\n
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Saudi Arabia is set to announce its 2026 budget the same day, followed by a press conference with Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan.<\/p>\n
And the next day in Turkey, data will probably show inflation eased in November to about 31.6%. Central bank Governor Fatih Karahan has said he expects an improvement, fueling expectations for a larger rate cut in December.<\/p>\n
Latin America<\/p>\n
It was a nice run, but new data may well show that Brazil\u2019s 16-quarter expansion \u2014 the longest growth streak for LatAm\u2019s No. 1 economy in the last three decades \u2014 ran out of road in the third quarter.<\/p>\n
The immediate causes can be boiled down to the central bank\u2019s uncompromising monetary policy and the hit from President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs. A few analysts see the risk of a shallow second-half recession.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
A host of reports from Mexico are likely to underscore the widening output gap and loss of momentum in LatAm\u2019s No. 2 economy.<\/p>\n
Manufacturing, consumer confidence, private consumption, and jobs added are all telling the same story, though perhaps none quite so dramatically as investment. As with Brazil, Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d trade and tariff policies are worsening an already challenging situation.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The big Andean inflation-targeting economies lead off November\u2019s price reports from the region.<\/p>\n
Chile, which also posts GDP-proxy figures, may report a slight cooling in consumer prices that might put a quarter-point rate cut on the table for central bankers who meet on Dec. 16.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
In Peru\u2019s megacity capital of Lima, consumer prices may have ticked slightly lower from the current below-target 1.35% \u2014 while Colombia could see a hint of deceleration in the year-on-year reading from October\u2019s 5.51%.<\/p>\n
–With assistance from Swati Pandey, Laura Dhillon Kane, Vince Golle, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Mark Evans, Beril Akman and Andrew Langley.<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek<\/p>\n
\u00a92025 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Shoppers pass through Alexanderplatz during Black Friday sales in Berlin, Germany, on Nov. 28. (Bloomberg) — A euro-zone…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":602371,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[188105,3662,23638,51,188904,1700,188903,129186,40450,525,16,16919,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-602370","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-black-friday-sales","9":"tag-bloomberg","10":"tag-bloomberg-television","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-central-bank-governor-fatih-karahan","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-inflation-numbers","15":"tag-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index","16":"tag-price-growth","17":"tag-south-korea","18":"tag-uk","19":"tag-unemployment-rate","20":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115635982438347928","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=602370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602370\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/602371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=602370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=602370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=602370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}