{"id":609112,"date":"2025-12-03T07:46:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T07:46:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/609112\/"},"modified":"2025-12-03T07:46:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T07:46:17","slug":"wednesday-briefing-does-the-new-us-plan-put-ukraine-and-russia-on-the-path-to-peace-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/609112\/","title":{"rendered":"Wednesday briefing: \u200b\u200bDoes the new \u200bU\u200bS plan put \u200bUkraine and \u200bRussia on the path to peace\u200b? | Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin<\/a> welcomed Donald Trump\u2019s special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow for talks on ending the war on Ukraine, nearly four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.<\/p>\n

The summit came amid intense diplomatic activity. Two weeks ago the US presented a 28-point peace plan to Kyiv that was widely seen as favourable to Moscow. Since then US and Ukrainian officials have met in Geneva and in Florida to rehash the plan. That revised offer was to form the basis of discussions at the summit.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/a>, said the updated proposal \u201clooks better\u201d but emphasised \u201cit was not over yet\u201d. The White House said it was \u201cvery optimistic\u201d about reaching a deal.<\/p>\n

By Tuesday evening, though, there was no sign of progress<\/a> as Witkoff departed Moscow and the Kremlin said the two sides were \u201cneither further nor closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine. There is a lot of work to be done.\u201d<\/p>\n

European leaders had hoped this week could prove \u201cpivotal\u201d for the US-brokered peace talks, but admitted fears that the Putin-Witkoff summit could pile pressure on<\/a> Ukraine to make concessions. Most analysts believe any substantial change to the original 28 points is unacceptable to the Kremlin.<\/p>\n

Moments before the talks began, Putin made hawkish remarks accusing European governments of sabotaging the peace process. He added: \u201cRussia does not intend to fight Europe<\/a>, but if Europe starts, we are ready right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

To unpick the rehashed plan, and whether any real progress is on the cards, for today\u2019s newsletter I spoke to Pjotr Sauer<\/strong>, Russian affairs reporter for the Guardian. But first the headlines.<\/p>\n

Five big stories<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    UK news <\/strong>| The families of those who died in the 1989 Hillsborough disaster have said it is a \u201cbitter injustice\u201d that no police officer will ever be held accountable<\/a> for failings set out in the final report of the police watchdog after a 14-year investigation. The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) found that 12 <\/strong>officers would have faced proceedings if they had not since retired.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    Royal family <\/strong>| The public accounts committee is to launch an inquiry<\/a> into the crown estate and its leases on properties to members of the royal family after questions over the letting of Royal Lodge to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Justice <\/strong>| David Lammy has been accused<\/a> of making a \u201cmassive mistake\u201d by Labour MPs and peers after announcing radical plans to cut thousands of jury trials across England and Wales.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    Policing <\/strong>| A quarter of police forces in England and Wales are yet to implement<\/a> \u201cbasic policies for investigating sexual offences\u201d, an official report has found.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    Gender <\/strong>| Trans girls will no longer be able to join Girlguiding, the organisation has announced<\/a>, saying it has made the decision after seeking legal advice as a result of the supreme court ruling on gender earlier this year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In depth: \u2018Everything points to the fact that Russia is not going to accept any revisions\u2019Vladimir Putin speaks as he visits one of the command posts of Russia\u2019s invasion forces. Photograph: AP<\/p>\n

    While Ukraine<\/a> has signalled it is ready to move towards peace, Putin has shown little appetite for compromise. From the start, the optics for progress did not seem favourable.<\/p>\n

    On Monday, the night before the Putin-Witkoff summit, Russian TV showed carefully curated pictures<\/a> of Putin in military fatigues. From a command post, he delivered a speech claiming Russian forces had taken control of the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine. Yesterday, Ukraine denied Pokrovsk had fallen, saying its forces remained in control of the northern part of the city. For more on the 18-month battle for Pokrovsk, read Dan Sabbagh\u2019s excellent feature<\/a> from the scene.<\/p>\n

    \u201cThe message was: we\u2019re winning this war, so it\u2019s better to pressure Ukraine into peace,\u201d said Pjotr. \u201cOr, you know, wait for us to continue fighting, and then Ukraine will be in an even worse situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

    Ahead of the talks, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had signalled that while Putin and Witkoff would discuss the \u201cunderstandings\u201d reached between Washington and Kyiv, Russia would insist on achieving the goals of its \u201cspecial operation\u201d. Those goals \u2013 including deep cuts to Ukraine\u2019s armed forces, a ban on western military assistance, limits on political independence and the handover of Ukrainian territory in the east that Russia does not hold \u2013 would severely erode Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty. Moscow has also been insisting that Ukraine pledge never to join Nato and accept caps on the size of its armed forces.<\/p>\n

    Putin\u2019s remarks on Europe, moments before the talks, appeared to be an attempt to drive a wedge between Washington and Europe, which have backed Kyiv in proposing revisions to the initial 28-point peace plan that favoured Moscow.<\/p>\n

    \u201cEuropean demands are not acceptable to Russia,\u201d Putin declared \u2013 but did not clarify exactly which European demands on Ukraine he found unacceptable.<\/p>\n

    What is Putin<\/strong> planning?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    The Russian president early on said the original draft proposal \u201ccould form the basis for future agreements\u201d. But towards the end of last week, he said that even if both sides do agree a peace deal, it still isn\u2019t possible because Russia doesn\u2019t consider Zelenskyy to be a legitimate leader.<\/p>\n

    \u201cHis thinking is actually relatively consistent,\u201d said Pjotr. \u201cYes, they\u2019re open for a peace deal, but one that would be completely on Russia\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n

    \u201cObviously, Ukrainian officials sat together with US officials over the weekend in Florida, and they rehashed this plan. But I think everything points to the fact that Russia is not going to accept any revisions.<\/p>\n

    \u201cThe Russians see this as a win-win situation,\u201d said Pjotr, where either the plan they want goes ahead or they \u201cjust keep on fighting\u201d. And Putin has said he is perfectly happy to do just that.<\/p>\n

    In this piece<\/a>, Pjotr said that the Russian newspaper often described as \u201cPutin\u2019s favourite\u201d, Komsomolskaya Pravda, implied that Moscow views the latest US-Ukrainian talks as a dead end, claiming Kyiv is refusing to capitulate. \u201cThe US has tried for the third time in the past 10 days to pressure Ukraine, and Washington has once again failed,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

    Will Witkoff have put any pressure on Putin?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    If Russia doesn\u2019t make any progress on peace then it would seem \u201clogical\u201d to exert pressure, reminding Putin he may face consequences from the US, said Pjotr.<\/p>\n

    However, Witkoff \u2013 a former property developer recently exposed<\/a> for coaching Russian officials on how to win Trump\u2019s favour \u2013 is unlikely to get involved in that. Other meetings between the two have been \u201cquite friendly\u201d, in sharp contrast to the often \u201cquite intense\u201d US meetings with the Ukrainians where Zelenskyy and his negotiators have been put under pressure \u201cevery time\u201d.<\/p>\n

    \u201cWitkoff is not ideological, he\u2019s a purely transactional person who has no diplomatic experience,\u201d Pjotr said. \u201cThe Russians themselves realise Witkoff isn\u2019t an experienced diplomat.\u201d<\/p>\n

    A phone call leaked to Bloomberg last week between Witkoff and the Kremlin<\/a>, in which the Trump envoy was coaching Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov on the best way to get into the US president\u2019s favour, was interpreted by many as being proof of Witkoff\u2019s closeness to the Russian position during negotiations.<\/p>\n

    The leak showed Witkoff is \u201csympathetic\u201d to the Russian position, said Pjotr. \u201cHe thinks: \u2018If only Ukraine just gives up this land, then we can get a deal with everyone.\u2019 That\u2019s Witkoff\u2019s philosophy.\u201d<\/p>\n

    What will Trump be looking for?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Over the past few months, it appeared that Trump \u201crealised it was Putin who was the main obstacle\u201d to any peace, Pjotr said. But that shifted again after this 28-point peace plan was put forward. Trump started blasting the Ukrainians again, calling them \u201cungrateful\u201d.<\/p>\n

    \u201cIt is difficult to predict,\u201d Pjotr said. Russia has been \u201cwalking a diplomatic tightrope\u201d between not coming off as rejecting a peace plan, which would anger Trump, and not accepting a peace plan that does not explicitly favour Russia.<\/p>\n

    \u201cThere is a danger that Russia says: \u2018Listen, we are on paper, ready for peace. If only Ukraine does this, this and this.\u2019 Then Witkoff might go back to Trump saying, well, if peace is to be reached, Ukraine has to give up land and compromise on a few other points.\u201d<\/p>\n

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    Can the US find a peace plan that works for everyone?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u201cThat\u2019s a really difficult question,\u201d said Pjotr. \u201cUkraine is ready to compromise. But Russia thinks \u2018Why compromise now? In two, three months, our position will be stronger.\u2019 That\u2019s what they believe. It\u2019s hard to know, but they are capturing cities slowly.\u201d<\/p>\n

    Trump\u2019s approval ratings at home are at a historic low. After delivering what the president said was a peace plan in Gaza, he believed that he could do the same with Russia and Ukraine \u2013 but it has turned out to be much harder<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    \u201cAt some point he might just walk away,\u201d said Pjotr. \u201cThat is not something that Russia is scared of. Russia would not shed a tear. But it would leave Ukraine quite vulnerable and exposed.\u201d<\/p>\n

    What else we\u2019ve been readingCristina Dorador is on an urgent mission in the world\u2019s highest desert, the Atacama in Chile. Photograph: The Guardian<\/p>\n