explicitly vowed to do<\/a>. This old doctrine stated that the US would not tolerate interference in its domestic affairs by its former colonial powers, and that it likewise would not interfere in the politics of other countries. While there are contradictions here \u2014 the NSS explicitly advocates interference in others\u2019 politics \u2014 there are also similarities. Trump, like Monroe, sees foreign countries as transactional business partners or competitors, or both. But there has been a reshuffling of traditional roles. Today, the EU is considered a competitor; Russia a future business partner. Trump is also happy cutting deals with Arab leaders, including Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president and a former member of Al-Qaeda. No wonder the old-school foreign policy crowd is confused.<\/p>\nMoscow, though, will probably be the single largest beneficiary of the new approach. Unlike most Western leaders, Trump understands Russia\u2019s commercial strength. It is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world, and not just in oil and gas. It is the world\u2019s largest producer of palladium. It has large deposits of rare-earth elements in Siberia, many of which are unexplored. It is a leading producer of nickel, copper, aluminium and zinc. Russia also stands to benefit from global warming. The warmer Arctic weather is opening up the Northern Sea Route, a maritime passage that stretches from Alaska to Norway. Trump understands this; Europe does not.<\/p>\n
There is one passage in the NSS that is particularly revealing. It lies at the heart of America\u2019s current influence and Europe\u2019s decline. The passage pinpoints why the US is so powerful. This is not primarily thanks to military might, instead the document lists a nimble political system that can course-correct; the world\u2019s most innovative economy, especially the tech sector; and the world\u2019s leading financial system and currency. Europe can boast none of this.<\/p>\n
Boasting only a surfeit of group think and deficit of strategic foresight, Europeans have relied on the US to provide critical services \u2014 such as the global financial backstop, the absorption of excess savings, and of course military protection \u2014 and basically gave up on innovation. The EU never managed to form a joint capital market because narrow national interests intruded. Even the single market, once the showpiece of European integration, has been crushed by over-regulation.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Europe\u2019s politics are stagnating. Yes, there is a real danger of \u201ccivilizational erasure\u201d, but the cause is not immigration. Instead, it\u2019s this overdependence on the US; this has created political inertia and a collection of failing states. Consider the Europe section of the NSS document. It comes with the Maga-style headline of \u201cPromoting European Greatness\u201d and kicks off with a recognition of Europe\u2019s decline. Europe constituted 25% of global economic output in 1990; today, that figure has fallen to 14%. The document notes that Europe\u2019s economic and political weakness has given rise to a general lack of self-confidence. In no area is this more apparent than in Europe\u2019s relationship with Russia. The following statement about the war in Ukraine in the NSS is more coherent than anything you will ever read in Europe: \u201cThe Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war.\u201d European policy is premised on the idea that Ukraine can still repel Russia from the occupied territories. This is delusional. It has been clear since Ukraine\u2019s failed spring offence in 2023 that it has no pathway towards victory.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a real danger of \u2018civilisational erasure\u2019, but the cause is not immigration.\u201d<\/p>\n
Inevitably, Europe reacted to the document with unmitigated, and delusional, horror \u2014 they are shocked! \u2014 especially regarding the threat to cultivate \u201cresistance to Europe\u2019s current trajectory within European nations\u201d. It is now America\u2019s official policy to support Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen and Alice Weidel. As Germany, France and the UK struggle to deliver meaningful political change, Trump is threatening to take control.<\/p>\n
To be fair, it is shocking to see it spelled out. This is clearly not the Monroe Doctrine. The US is trying to meddle massively in Europe\u2019s internal politics. In that sense, the policy is imperialist. The US will do everything in its power to maintain its leadership in technology, finance and the military and keep Europe a de facto US colony. But, instead of pearl-clutching when the penny dropped, the Europeans should have seen it coming. They should have been prepared.<\/p>\n
Henry Kissinger joked that it may be dangerous to be America\u2019s enemy, but it is fatal to be America\u2019s friend. This describes with deadly accuracy the European position right now. Any self-respecting country, or group of countries, would at this point try to break free of America\u2019s grip. But, like an addict confronting his withdrawal, that would require strength, and a willingness to make sacrifices. Europeans would have to give up on their cushy social models. They would have to acquire the skills of strategic thinking and planning. They would have to cut taxes and reshuffle their public spending priorities.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s re-election could have been an opportunity for Europeans to take their destiny into their own hands. But I\u2019ve said it before, and will again, this is not going to happen. Obviously, the Europeans will not resist. They never do, as they are full of fear. It is not the failure of Trump\u2019s policies that Europe\u2019s foreign policy elites dread, but their success. They fear the end of their beloved multilateral global order will catapult different people to the top \u2014 people like Steve Witkoff, whom Europeans keep on referring to as a property tycoon with no experience in foreign policy. But you underestimate dangerous people at your peril. And this arrogance hides insecurity, encourages inertia and augurs failure.<\/p>\n
Trump wants Europe to stay hooked on the American supply, just as Europe fears the withdrawal symptoms if they go cold turkey.\u00a0Trump wants to maintain the dependency relationship and his new security doctrine says as much. As the NSS puts it \u201cEurope is strategically and culturally vital\u00a0to the US\u201d. And this reference to \u201cculturally vital\u201d perfectly explains Trump\u2019s attitude towards us. Americans see Europe as the world\u2019s museum. And Europeans have long conformed to this stereotype. They are the champions of preservation and conservation, obsessed with protecting listed buildings and medieval villages, while at the same time suffering from housing shortages. There was a time when Europe\u2019s classical music and literature was modern. But today, Europe is a cultural theme park, owned by American entertainment companies. That\u2019s what I call civilisational erasure.<\/p>\n
Casablanca is a story about Americans and Europeans. The version we\u2019ve watched ends with a famous line about the beginning of a beautiful friendship. But this is not how our story will end. Our fate will be more like the original ending of the film, with the final tragic dialogue between Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman, when the American said: \u201cWe\u2019ll always have Paris.\u201d<\/p>\n
Indeed, they will.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Never underestimate the capacity of Europeans to be shocked by Donald Trump. Shocked that he wants to make…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":619088,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5174],"tags":[6207,32,2000,299,5187,191502],"class_list":{"0":"post-619087","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-eu","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-european","13":"tag-national-security-strategy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115681422467202505","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619087\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}