![\"Umbra](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Umbra-SAR-sat-photo-e1685046168368-1024x576.jpeg\")
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Umbra SAR satellite image of Cannes, France (Umbra)<\/p>\n
SPACE SYMPOSIUM 2025 \u2014 The Trump administration\u2019s potential strategic shift away from military and economic support to Ukraine may result in financial fallout for US-based commercial providers of synthetic aperture radar (SAR)<\/a> satellite imagery \u2014 which could leave those firms scrambling to find alternative sources of income, according to market watchers.<\/p>\n Since Russia\u2019s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the single biggest buyer of commercial SAR data has been the US government, especially the National Reconnaissance Office, <\/a>according to a handful of industry officials and market analysts.<\/p>\n And what funding has been available has been heavily dependent not on annual agency budgets, these sources said, but on extra-budgetary supplementals provided by Congress that may well disappear as the US turns its sights to brokering a peace deal between the two sides.<\/p>\n \u201cThe world\u2019s leading commercial SAR providers\u2014Umbra Space, ICEYE, and Capella Space\u2014are today performers on NRO study contracts, which provide sparse procurement funds in terms of any formal government spending. Thanks largely to the 2024 supplemental bill for US support to Ukraine and Israel, these same companies have been tasked extensively to collect radar imagery over Ukraine,\u201d said David Gauthier, former head of commercial programs at NRO\u2019s sister IC space agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).<\/a><\/p>\n In theory, those firms should be able to make up any lost revenue by turning to the commercial realm, or selling to other governments. But commercial demand has been slow to build up, and industry executives have openly complained that international sales are hamstrung by export control obstacles<\/a>.<\/p>\n The NRO currently has the three<\/a> US-based SAR satellite firms on short-term contracts under its Strategic Commercial Enhancements Broad Agency Announcement, after downsizing from an initial set of awards granted in January 2022<\/a>. While ICEYE is a Finnish company, NRO\u2019s contract is with its separate US arm, ICEYE US.<\/p>\n \u201cNRO\u2019s BAA contracts for commercial SAR are incrementally funded through a mix of NRO\u2019s base budget, Congressional adds, and Supplemental Funding from the Ukraine and Israel Supplement bills,\u201d a NRO spokesperson told Breaking Defense in an email.<\/p>\n The contracts \u201care incrementally funded and amounts vary by contract. The amount of funding initially provided to our commercial partners is designed to start or to execute a specific collection campaign. Every contract and situation is different and there are many variables that are considered in determining the amount of funds provided throughout the contract period of performance,\u201d the spokesperson added.<\/p>\n But Gauthier, who is now chief strategy officer at GXO, Inc., a consultancy specializing in space startups, argues that NRO\u2019s budget at the moment cannot support either today\u2019s battlefield needs for SAR imagery or the emerging commercial industrial base.<\/p>\n \u201cWith neither a formal budget program for a Radar Commercial Layer at the NRO until [fiscal 2026] at the earliest, nor any new US supplemental funds for the conflict in Ukraine, the IC simply does not have the funds<\/a> to purchase enough commercial SAR imagery to meet these needs. Going back to pre-Ukraine supplemental procurement levels would see the USG buying only a small fraction of the US commercial SAR capacity available; hardly enough to support combat operations or sustain a healthy US industrial base,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Chris Quilty, founder of market analysis firm Quilty Space, agreed that if US funding for Ukraine dries up, it \u201cwould be a hell of a body blow\u201d for emerging remote sensing companies, including those providing SAR data.<\/p>\n Will SAR Firms Find Commercial Buyers to Bolster Sales?<\/p>\n One key question, Quilty said, is whether SAR firms can spark a real commercial market for their images and analytical products. While the number of SAR satellites on orbit has trended upward for the past three years, it remains unclear whether \u201cthat increasing supply created and created any incremental demand.\u201d<\/p>\n Likewise, Fletcher Franklin, deputy director for analytics at Bryce Technologies, noted that it isn\u2019t yet clear what the non-governmental market might be for SAR-sat imagery and products.<\/p>\n \u201cUmbra, Capella, and ICEYE are three great examples of companies that have released datasets for free to reach more users, accelerate adoption, and inform analytics models. \u2026 [W]hat is the uptake from those efforts is the question?\u201d<\/p>\n While exporting to foreign governments also could help offset a drop in US government spending on SAR, there are headwinds there too.<\/p>\n \u201cIf it\u2019s just a question of budgets, then it\u2019s certainly possible that some of that could be picked up by, overseas sources, in the same way as people like Poland have said, \u2018Okay, well, you know, we also fund some of the Starlink connectivity in the Ukraine.\u2019 Certainly if the Europeans were going to up their spending to counteract any decrease in the US that might balance things out to some degree,\u201d Tim Farrar, a long-time space industry analyst, told Breaking Defense in an interview.<\/p>\n \u201cAlthough realistically, European budgets for these sorts of things are generally a lot lower than the levels of spending we\u2019ve historically seen from the US.\u201d he cautioned.<\/p>\n A second problem for US SAR firms seeking foreign markets is that at the moment, export control rules<\/a> prevent them from selling SAR-sats and sensor payloads with the same precision as those being sold abroad by companies such as France\u2019s Airbus, and yes, ICEYE Finland. Current International Traffic in Arms Regulations<\/a> prohibit the sale of SAR satellites and payloads using a spectrum width of greater than 300 megahertz (MHz); the standard used by non-US SAR providers is 1,200 MHz, according to industry officials, putting US firms at a distinct disadvantage.<\/p>\n A SAR satellite sensor provides an imagery resolution roughly equivalent to a picture taken by a space-based electro-optical camera with a resolution between 0.25 and 0.30 meters, the officials said.<\/p>\n Even though US companies can still sell SAR \u201cpictures\u201d taken at 1,200 MHz to foreign customers, many non-US governments aren\u2019t interested in buying only imagery and instead want their own satellites to ensure national sovereignty \u2014 a desire that has only broadened and deepened in Europe<\/a> due to Trump administration policies on Ukraine, and now its sweeping tariffs<\/a> including on fellow NATO allies.<\/p>\n The State Department last October <\/a>issued a draft proposal to ease SAR satellite export control standards, but to the dismay of industry officials it only increased the export threshold to 500 MHz.<\/p>\n A State Department official told Breaking Defense that on Nov. 19, 2024<\/a>, \u201cin response to industry requests,\u201d the department extended the public comment period on the proposed rule until Dec. 23, 2025. Despite the change in administration, the proposal to ease the export control rules \u201cremains active according to the Office of Management and Budget\u2019s website,\u201d the official added, with \u201cthe target timetable for a final rule on such matters is currently listed as September 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n Further, the official said, the department is actively reviewing industry comments on the proposal.<\/p>\n But even if the State Department decides to free up sales of SAR-sats with similar capabilities to those being offered abroad, geopolitical realities may prove an obstacle for US firms. The March 7<\/a> move by NGA to shut down its provision of US government gathered commercial remote sensing imagery products (maps and the like) to Ukraine sent shivers<\/a> through European defense circles. While the Trump administration did not shut off direct sales by US firms to Kyiv, and reversed its decision a week later,\u00a0it has likely only deepened in Europe<\/a> a desire for sovereign capabilities. The start of sweeping tariffs<\/a>, including on fellow NATO allies, could also impact interest in US-based contracts.<\/p>\n Officials from the three US-based NRO SAR contractors contracted by Breaking Defense were reluctant to speak about the potential market hardships \u2014 perhaps unsurprisingly, given that all three are at the moment are largely financed by venture capital firms that could easily be spooked by a perceived lack of growth opportunities.<\/p>\n Operators Keeping Their Collective Chins Up<\/p>\n In the meantime, firms are focusing on the positives and continuing to trumpet government deals.<\/p>\n Umbra on March 27 announced the signing of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with NGA. \u201cUnder this CRADA, Umbra gains access to NGA\u2019s research insights to better align its capabilities with mission requirements, while NGA can leverage Umbra\u2019s advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and RF data products and satellite technology to expand its research and operational capabilities,\u201d the press release said.<\/p>\n ICEYE Finland on March 28<\/a> announced that it had clinched a deal with NATO\u2019s Situation Center,<\/a> located at NATO headquarters in Brussels. The Situation Center is the alliance\u2019s intelligence gathering unit providing alerts and warnings to NATO ruling North Atlantic Council and its Military Committee. The company did not publish the contract\u2019s value, and a NATO spokesperson told Breaking Defense that the alliance does not \u201cnot publish details about contract providers and specific budgets.\u201d<\/p>\n Frank Backes, CEO of Capella, told Breaking Defense on March 10 that he is optimistic both about the prospects for the State Department to level the playing field, and wider market opportunities.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is more demand than there is capacity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Tim Martin in Belfast contributed to this story.<\/p>\n \t\tRecommended\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Umbra SAR satellite image of Cannes, France (Umbra) SPACE SYMPOSIUM 2025 \u2014 The Trump administration\u2019s potential strategic shift…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6207,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,3470,3471,3472,299,3473,3474,3475,2441,3476,3477,3478,3479,3480,1166,16,657,3481,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-6206","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-business-industry","10":"tag-capella-space","11":"tag-commercial-space","12":"tag-europe","13":"tag-export-controls","14":"tag-iceye","15":"tag-international-traffic-in-arms-regulations-itar","16":"tag-markets","17":"tag-national-geospatial-intelligence-agency","18":"tag-national-reconnaissance-office","19":"tag-space-force","20":"tag-space-symposium-2025","21":"tag-synthetic-aperture-radar-sar","22":"tag-trump-administration","23":"tag-uk","24":"tag-ukraine","25":"tag-umbra","26":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114309590108191171","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6206\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}