All the frenzied diplomacy underway now seems more about appeasing Trump and avoiding the blame for failed negotiations or for striking a deal that doesn\u2019t stick \u2014 like the Minsk agreements.<\/p>\n
For example, longtime Putin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky\u2019s New Eurasian Strategies Center believes the Russian president remains \u201cconvinced that Russia retains an advantage on the battlefield,\u201d and therefore \u201csees no need to offer concessions.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cHe prefers a combination of military action and diplomatic pressure \u2014 a tactic that, in the Kremlin\u2019s view, the West is no longer able to resist. At the same time, any peace agreement that meets Russia\u2019s conditions would set the stage for a renewed conflict. Ukraine\u2019s ability to defend itself would be weakened as a result of the inevitable political crisis triggered by territorial concessions, and the transatlantic security system would be undermined. This would create an environment that is less predictable and more conducive to further Russian pressure,\u201d they conclude.<\/p>\n
Indeed, the only deal that might satisfy Putin would be one that, in effect, represents Ukrainian capitulation \u2014 no NATO membership, a cap on the size of Ukraine\u2019s postwar armed forces, the loss of all of the Donbas, recognition of Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea, and no binding security guarantees.<\/p>\n
But this isn\u2019t a deal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy can ink \u2014 or if he did, it would throw Ukraine into existential political turmoil.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t see the Parliament ever passing anything like that,\u201d opposition lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova told POLITICO. And if it did, \u201cit might lead to a civil war\u201d with many patriots who have fought, seeing it as a great betrayal, she added. \u201cEverybody understands, and everybody supports Zelenskyy in doing what he\u2019s doing in these negotiations because we understand if he gives up, we\u2019re done for.\u201d<\/p>\n
Not that she thinks he will. So, don\u2019t expect any breakthroughs in the so-called peace talks this week.<\/p>\n
Putin will maintain his maximalist demands while sorrowfully suggesting a deal could be struck if only Zelenskyy would be realistic, while the Ukrainian leader and his European backers will do their best to counter. And they will all be performing to try and stay in Trump\u2019s good books. \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"All the frenzied diplomacy underway now seems more about appeasing Trump and avoiding the blame for failed negotiations…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":634101,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[768,7057,5293,32,2000,299,1945,129858,9204,660,177249,809,332,9322,657,49,30878,333,2601,771,335],"class_list":{"0":"post-634100","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-borders","9":"tag-defense-budgets","10":"tag-diplomacy","11":"tag-donald-trump","12":"tag-eu","13":"tag-europe","14":"tag-friedrich-merz","15":"tag-jared-kushner","16":"tag-keith-kellogg","17":"tag-kremlin","18":"tag-mikhail-khodorkovsky","19":"tag-negotiations","20":"tag-russia","21":"tag-russian-politics","22":"tag-ukraine","23":"tag-united-states","24":"tag-unpacked","25":"tag-vladimir-putin","26":"tag-volodymyr-zelenskyy","27":"tag-war","28":"tag-war-in-ukraine"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115724098244845688","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/634100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=634100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/634100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/634101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=634100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=634100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=634100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}