Read more<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n It is always important to put such things in context.\n<\/p>\n
\n In this case, the most apposite context is the extent of the damage to the UK economy from the UK\u2019s hard Brexit.\n<\/p>\n
\n It is, of course, important to remember this was delivered by the Conservatives, when Boris Johnson was prime minister.\n<\/p>\n
\n However, is it also crucial to realise that Labour continues to embrace the key aspects of this hard Brexit with its \u201cred lines\u201d.\n<\/p>\n
\n A working paper on the impact of Brexit published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is based in the US at Cambridge in Massachusetts, made for very interesting reading when it was published last month.\n<\/p>\n
\n The authors of the working paper are Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Philip Bunn of the Bank of England, Paul Mizen of King\u2019s College London, Pawel Smietanka of the Deutsche Bundesbank, and Gregory Thwaites of the University of Nottingham.\n<\/p>\n
\n The NBER is a \u201cprivate, non-profit, non-partisan organisation\u201d.\n<\/p>\n
\n The abstract for the working paper, The Economic Impact of Brexit, states: \u201cThis paper examines the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
\n In spring 2023, the then chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, Richard Hughes, said of Brexit\u2019s effect: \u201cWe think that in the long run it reduces our overall output by around 4% compared with had we remained in the EU.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
\n This is a huge impact.\n<\/p>\n
\n And the NBER estimate of the damage is far greater still.\n<\/p>\n
\n What is beyond doubt is that Brexit has had an enormous impact on the UK economy.\n<\/p>\n
\n Yet the Labour Government continues to sit on its hands on this key front and instead bang the drum about free trade deals offering piffling benefits.\n<\/p>\n
\n For example, the UK Government estimates that annual UK gross domestic product will by 2040 be 0.13% higher than it would have been without the India trade deal.\n<\/p>\n
\n The UK Government said of the agreement with South Korea: \u201cThe deal with South Korea, the 12th largest economy in the world, is expected to grow UK services exports by \u00a3400 million including improved access to South Korea\u2019s expanding financial market.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201cVital automotive, pharmaceutical and food and drink industries have also been protected and global supply chains secured. Some \u00a32 billion of UK exports were weeks away from facing costly tariff hikes but will now benefit from the deal thanks to permanent preferential access to one of Asia\u2019s most advanced economies.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
\n This all amounts to a drop in the ocean.\n<\/p>\n
\n When the India trade deal was announced, the Labour Government talked about increasing UK exports to India \u201cby nearly 60% in the long run – equivalent to an additional \u00a315.7 billion of UK exports to India when applied to projections of future trade in 2040\u201d.\n<\/p>\n
\n And the annual boost to UK economic output in the long run from the India deal was estimated at \u00a34.8 billion \u2013 that tiny 0.13% of UK GDP.\n<\/p>\n
\n That gives an idea of just how minuscule the effect on the UK\u2019s overall GDP will be from the South Korea free trade agreement.\n<\/p>\n
\n Some companies and sectors will benefit from the various trade deals agreed.\n<\/p>\n
\n However, it is high time that politicians stop painting a picture that they somehow constitute more than a hill of beans relative to what is being lost with Brexit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It was difficult not to be irritated this week as the Labour Government trumpeted its \u201cupgraded\u201d free trade…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":641716,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,748,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-641715","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-britain","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-european","13":"tag-european-union","14":"tag-great-britain","15":"tag-uk","16":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115744859919609903","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=641715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641715\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/641716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=641715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=641715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=641715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}