There had been speculation that the major energy infrastructure could eventually be resurrected if, or rather when, the war between Russia and Ukraine ends and\u00a0there’s\u00a0a peace agreement between the parties.\u00a0<\/p>\n
However, talks to try to\u00a0establish\u00a0the grounds for a ceasefire\u00a0have been moving\u00a0at a snail’s pace with\u00a0neither side willing to cross “red lines”<\/a>\u00a0regarding\u00a0the permanent surrender of territory, be it sovereign or occupied. Speaking with British news website UnHerd<\/a>, Vance said Monday that while the U.S. is going to “try to get this thing solved,” he “wouldn’t say with confidence that we’re going to get a peaceful resolution.” <\/p>\n Hopes of a deal\u00a0have led to questions over what economic and energy links between Russia and the rest of the world could be re-established and, when it comes to Europe, whether a ceasefire could lead to a\u00a0<\/strong>reintegration of Russian gas\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0the resurrection of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.\u00a0<\/p>\n Such a move would be highly contentious and divisive\u00a0on\u00a0the continent, given Russia’s\u00a0full-scale\u00a0invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and\u00a0attempts\u00a0in the region to wean itself off cheaper Russian gas.\u00a0<\/p>\n In 2021, before the war, Russian imports accounted for about\u00a045%\u00a0of the European gas consumption. This year, estimates expect\u00a0imports of 13%.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ukraine would be outraged by any move that\u00a0benefited\u00a0its\u00a0invader,\u00a0and Poland has called for the pipelines \u2014 one of which has never been used \u2014 to be “dismantled.”\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n That said, Ukraine itself\u00a0benefited\u00a0from an older pipeline that passes through the country\u00a0as it collected transit fees. The Russia\u2013Ukraine gas transit agreement expired at the end of 2024, with the two countries opting not to renew it given\u00a0the\u00a0war.\u00a0The\u00a0Nord Stream\u00a0pipelines were specifically designed to circumvent Ukraine\u00a0and avoid such fees, but the transit agreement could\u00a0be one of\u00a0many\u00a0levers to\u00a0use during negotiations\u00a0if the tap is turned back on.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The U.S. would\u00a0likely baulk\u00a0at the return of Nord Stream as it has hoped to muscle out Moscow and increase its market share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales to Europe.\u00a0But\u00a0Germany, which is directly connected to the pipeline\u00a0and\u00a0whose industries are struggling with high energy costs,\u00a0might find the\u00a0lure\u00a0and return of Russian gas supplies hard to resist.\u00a0<\/p>\n The European\u00a0Council and Parliament in December struck\u00a0a provisional agreement\u00a0on regulation to\u00a0phase out imports of Russian gas. It\u00a0is set to implement\u00a0a full ban on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas imports\u00a0from the end of 2026 and autumn 2027, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n Is\u00a0Nord Stream\u00a0salvageable?\u00a0<\/p>\n The Danish Energy Agency in January\u00a0granted permission<\/a> for Nord Stream 2 to carry out preservation work on its damaged pipelines\u00a0that are\u00a0located\u00a0within Denmark’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n “The purpose of the works is to prevent further gas blowout and the ingress of oxygenated seawater, that could potentially lead to corrosion,” the agency told CNBC, although the preservation works on Nord Stream 2 have not\u00a0commenced\u00a0yet.\u00a0<\/p>\n The permit has been granted on\u00a0a number of\u00a0conditions, the agency said, that are intended to ensure safe operation of the pipeline. It added that, among other conditions, the company must\u00a0submit\u00a0an annual plan for the pipeline facility “so that the Danish Energy Agency can continuously monitor the company’s plans for the facility’s future.”\u00a0<\/p>\n “Furthermore, all conditions in such permits would have to be fulfilled before the pipelines can be put into operation. The Danish Energy Agency has not received any such applications,” it said.\u00a0<\/p>\n But are the\u00a0Norstream\u00a0pipelines even salvageable now?\u00a0<\/p>\n Sergey\u00a0Vakulenko, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia\u00a0Center, told CNBC that the pipeline that was damaged in the sabotage incidents would need replacing in part, and the remaining undamaged one would not cost “much money at all” to resurrect.\u00a0<\/p>\n “I think they’re still repairable, salvageable.\u00a0So\u00a0you could have to cut a few miles of [the damaged] pipeline and replace it. But this could be done,” he told CNBC in October.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n “It could easily cost $1 billion or something like that, but there’s still one [pipeline] at operational strength so that could be used,” he said. Asked if the pipelines \u2014 which are filled with stagnant gas \u2014 are being looked after currently,\u00a0Vakulenko\u00a0said: “They’re not looked after\u00a0at all.”\u00a0<\/p>\n Can Europe stomach Russian gas, again?\u00a0<\/p>\n Whether Europe could resume purchases from Russia again is the big question.\u00a0<\/p>\n “Each of the\u00a0Nord Streams\u00a0[pipelines] were 55 million cubic meters. So that one\u00a0remaining\u00a0is 27.5 million cubic meters … and\u00a0that’s\u00a0probably the\u00a0top of what Europe would be prepared to buy from Russia,”\u00a0Vakulenko\u00a0said.<\/p>\n He said that if there was a change of government in Russia and Putin was no longer president, Europe would be “quite willing to buy some Russian gas,” but not if the same amounts it was buying before.\u00a0<\/p>\n “Then\u00a0Nord Stream\u00a0would come in handy. But\u00a0that’s\u00a0[a] very big\u00a0‘IF,'” he\u00a0added.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n “On the one hand, Europe, or at least there are parties [countries] in Europe, who wouldn’t mind\u00a0having\u00a0at least some Russian gas in the European energy mix for a number of reasons, to not be too reliant on U.S. supply. Russia is the lowest cost supplier to Europe,” he said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The continent\u00a0has not fully recovered from the energy crisis stemming from\u00a0the\u00a0full-scale invasion of its neighbour.\u00a0The Dutch Title Transfer Facility,\u00a0Europe’s main benchmark for natural gas prices,\u00a0was double\u00a0its\u00a0pre-war prices\u00a0in\u00a0early 2025,\u00a0per the IEA<\/a>.\u00a0Energy constraints\u00a0are compounded further by the AI race, which has shifted\u00a0public narratives\u00a0from\u00a0energy transition to energy addition<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n “So\u00a0if you’re not too squeamish to buy Russian gas, if you don’t have to hold your nose too tight by buying it, then sure, there’s a lot of commercial and economic reasons as to why [to do it]. If it becomes politically, ethically palatable, then there will be quite a lot of stimuli to do so, but\u00a0that’s\u00a0again for the time when there is indeed some rapprochement between Russia and Europe, and\u00a0that’s [a] big ‘if’,”\u00a0Vakulenko\u00a0said.\u00a0<\/p>\n However,\u00a0Tancrede Fulop,\u00a0utilities\u00a0and renewables analyst at Morningstar,\u00a0told CNBC that it would be too difficult to reintegrate Russian gas, at least in the short term,\u00a0because of\u00a0the\u00a0fresh\u00a0European legislation. He noted, however, that the legislation does\u00a0include\u00a0some exceptions for Hungary and Slovakia in emergency situations.<\/p>\n The policy shift was also rooted in a drive for energy independence after Russia’s “weaponisation of gas supplies,” the EU said. As a result, member states are likely to stay clear of an overreliance on one state going forward and instead invest in boosting overall domestic capacity. <\/p>\n Does Russia want European business?<\/p>\n Whether Russia would want to sell its gas to Europe is another looming question.<\/p>\n “<\/strong>Everybody thinks the energy crisis started with war in Ukraine, but it actually\u00a0started in 2021,”\u00a0Fulop said, noting several drivers of\u00a0a cold winter, low wind\u00a0speeds,\u00a0and therefore high gas consumption.<\/p>\n Adding to the crisis was the fact that the EU was late to clear Nord Stream 2 for operations. “And so Russia started to reduce the flows of gas sent to the EU,” before the war started, he said. This suggests that the move from Russia may have been intended to add pressure on Europe to pick up the pace with Nord Stream 2. <\/p>\n On the other hand, “Russia is not in\u00a0a very strong\u00a0negotiating position,” according to Vakulenko. “For Russia, that gas is a stranded resource.\u00a0So\u00a0you could expect\u00a0[that Europe]\u00a0could negotiate a good deal.”<\/p>\n Russia\u00a0has also looked to Asia\u00a0as an alternative partner to Europe and has deepened ties with China via the Power of Siberia\u00a0pipeline.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"Ukraine](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/108244593-17664018811766401879-43111339492-1080pnbcnews.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Goldman](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/108244241-17661619311766161928-43065746198-1080pnbcnews.jpg\")
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