The polite applause faded and NATO chief Mark Rutte arranged his papers neatly on the rostrum. It took him 62 seconds to get to the point.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe dark forces of oppression are on the march again,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are Russia\u2019s next target.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rutte\u2019s speech<\/strong><\/a> in Berlin on December 11 was just the latest in an unprecedented series of warnings of direct conflict with Russia made in 2025 by senior European officials and intelligence agencies.<\/p>\n In February, Danish intelligence<\/strong><\/a> said \u201cRussia sees itself in conflict with the West and is preparing for a war against NATO;\u201d in June, Germany\u2019s top general<\/strong><\/a> said an attack may come within four years; in November, his words were echoed by his Polish counterpart — two days after German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius<\/strong><\/a> said \u201csome military historians even believe we have already had our last summer of peace.\u201d<\/p>\n This list of warnings is far from exhaustive. Rutte has been most frequent.<\/p>\n In January, he urged NATO members to hike defense spending or get Russian language classes<\/strong><\/a>, while in June he said an attack could be coordinated with a Chinese assault on Taiwan.<\/p>\n His December 11 speech was his loudest alarm bell yet, speaking of \u201cthe scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured\u201d with \u201cmass mobilization, millions displaced.\u201d<\/p>\n What’s Behind The Warnings?<\/strong><\/p>\n The frequent comments have made headlines — and raised question marks, especially with the United States showing waning interest in maintaining the levels of security support it has given Europe in the past.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is something that I\u2019ve been pondering especially as there is no evidence at all that Russia can or wants to attack NATO,\u201d John Foreman, a former British military attache in Moscow and Kyiv, told RFE\/RL.<\/p>\n \u201cI think a number of politicians and military types are using the specter of the Russian threat for more prosaic reasons: Rutte to encourage NATO nations to meet their spending commitments. The Poles to get more NATO on their territory,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Other skeptics have pointed out that after nearly four years of war Russia has been unable to subdue Ukraine — even if it has been edging forward this year at enormous cost in casualties and equipment.<\/p>\n Teemu Tammikko, from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, also said that Russia did not appear \u201cwilling and able to attack NATO for the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n But he told RFE\/RL\u2019s Russian Service<\/strong><\/a> that President Vladimir Putin\u2019s grip on power was \u201cdependent on an external threat,\u201d meaning \u201cin the longer term, some kind of direct military provocation is likely, especially if the war in Ukraine freezes.\u201d<\/p>\n Some argue this is already happening, such as with Russian drone and air incursions into NATO airspace<\/strong><\/a>. But the warnings issued this year hint at much darker scenarios.<\/p>\n