Fifty or so years ago, US<\/a> scientist Roy Amara coined an adage that is often echoed in books on futurology. He stated that we tend to overestimate the effect of technology in the short run and underestimate its effect in the long run. <\/p>\n What, then, of the medium term? It is difficult to think of 25 years as anything concrete. In some ways, 2050 is just around the corner. Many things will surely stay the same. Look at the new national children\u2019s hospital<\/a> and the ever-postponed MetroLink<\/a> as evidence of the longevity of the liminal in Ireland.<\/p>\n On the other hand, important decisions being made today will have stark consequences not too far down the line. Nascent extremist politics in 2025 may have blossomed into something significantly more impactful by 2050. <\/p>\n Some predictions hold more weight than others. If targets continue to be missed in vulnerable areas such as climate and housing, lives could be drastically altered in a couple of decades. <\/p>\n Below, as 2025 draws to a close, a panel of experts share their thoughts on what Ireland, and the world, might look like in 2050. <\/p>\n The future of politicsJustine McCarthy, political journalist, author and columnist with The Irish Times<\/p>\n \u201cI think the biggest transformation that might happen would be constitutional,\u201d Justine McCarthy says of Irish politics in 2050. \u201cThe one Ireland might have been achieved by then. That would mean many changes to the way we live on the island.\u201d<\/p>\n Among those changes would be one single police force and health service for a united island of Ireland, and likely a new flag and anthem. There may be a devolution of powers, with a devolved parliament in Belfast \u2013 basis, McCarthy suggests, Cork could demand one too. <\/p>\n \u201cOn the domestic political front, it\u2019s possible by then that Fianna F\u00e1il and Fine Gael will have merged, and there will be a more unified left,\u201d she says. \u201cIt would be, I suppose, a more polarised party political system.\u201d <\/p>\n McCarthy believes that by 2050, there will have been a left-led government in Ireland, if not a number of them. She sees more consolidation on both sides of the political spectrum, with fewer breakaway parties disrupting a swell of support. <\/p>\n \u201cForgive me for such an outlandish proposition, but I think we will also have had a woman taoiseach, if not be on our second or third woman taoiseach by then,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n In terms of big political issues, McCarthy believes there will be less of a focus on identity politics, and more emphasis placed on climate and international affairs. Green affairs \u201cwill be mainstream\u201d, and no single party will have a monopoly on the subject. <\/p>\n One possible consequence of an emphasis on climate action could be \u201csomething of a retreat from globalisation and more of a move towards local produce and the co-operative movement\u201d, McCarthy says.<\/p>\n She hopes that, by 2050, the rise of right-wing extremism around Europe will have been stemmed. The world will have learned how to deal with migration and face up to its primary causes \u2013 war, property and climate change.<\/p>\n [\u00a0What is the reactionary international movement, Europe\u2019s new political force?Opens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n \u201cI think immigration will continue but emigration will as well, because we are so far behind in providing public infrastructure that I think it\u2019s unlikely we\u2019ll be able to keep abreast of the growth in population,\u201d McCarthy says. <\/p>\n She is a proponent of the move towards more elected city mayors in Ireland, and thinks it could make a big difference to the improvement of public services and infrastructure in the coming years. <\/p>\n \u201cI think the look of Leinster House will be quite different,\u201d McCarthy adds. \u201cI would hope it will be more multicultural, with more women in it as well, and that there will be greater accountability to the D\u00e1il by government.\u201d<\/p>\n The future of AI and technologyAlan Smeaton, professor of computing at DCU and member of the Government\u2019s AI Advisory Council<\/p>\n Predicting future developments in areas such as politics and infrastructure is relatively easy, says Alan Smeaton, \u201cbecause they\u2019re just incremental [additions] to what we already do\u201d.<\/p>\n AI, in contrast, is much more variable; the term has only existed for about 70 years but by 2050, he believes, we will be calling it something else entirely. <\/p>\n [\u00a0Forget the futuristic dystopias: AI is changing the world right nowOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n Smeaton\u2019s first prediction is that data collection and archiving will grow and grow. Wearables, clothes and everyday objects will be used for this purpose, developing the internet of things (IoT) and increasing our digital footprints. <\/p>\n AI\u2019s connection to this world is its \u201cability to process all of this data and to make decisions or recommendations based on all of [it]\u201d. <\/p>\n Smeaton envisages this being done by the commercial sector, but he thinks the landscape will be far removed from current abuses of personal data carried out by major tech and social media companies. <\/p>\n His next prediction is around energy.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re currently forecasting a world of all doom and gloom caused by the energy demands of large language models and the hundreds of billions that are going to be needed, so they say, for data centres,\u201d he says. \u201cBut that will pivot and that will ease considerably.\u201d<\/p>\n Better algorithms, Smeaton believes, will be developed to make language models easier to create and cheaper to use. He says AI\u2019s greatest contribution to society, however, is not language models, but a system called AlphaFold. <\/p>\n \u201cAlphaFold was a publication or a system developed by Google\u2019s Deep Mind, which determines the structure of 200 million proteins,\u201d Smeaton says. \u201c[That\u2019s] basically all the proteins in nature, and it has completely changed how we do drug discovery.\u201d<\/p>\n By 2050, he expects quantum computing to have developed to the point that these protein models can be used to affect personalised medicine. Smeaton says this is a game changer that is not yet being appreciated outside of the science community. <\/p>\n Artificial general intelligence \u2013 a hypothetical AI system that is more intelligent than humans \u2013 is one of the big ideas floating around AI discourse. Smeaton says that, like most scientists, he does not believe it will arrive in his lifetime. <\/p>\n Finally, he mentions the digital divide \u2013 that is, the gulf between those who have access to technology and those who do not. Oftentimes, the digital divide is mentioned in the context of unequal access based on class and geography; Smeaton says in 2050, there may be a split too between those who embrace and exploit AI and technology, and those who turn away from it of their own volition. <\/p>\n The future of healthDr Colin Doherty, head of the School of Medicine at Trinity College Dublin<\/p>\n \u201cBy 2050, healthcare will reflect not just our technologies, but our politics and our moral choices,\u201d says Dr Colin Doherty.<\/p>\n He describes two scenarios. In one future, driven by climate inaction and \u201cthe global rise of populist nativism\u201d, healthcare succumbs to a dystopian divide. Traditional doctors, human clinicians with time and empathy, are reserved for an elite upper class. <\/p>\n \u201c[Healthcare systems] never really collapse; they evolve into something different,\u201d says Doherty. \u201cI think the best example of this is how healthcare was distributed back in the 19th century. You basically didn\u2019t have any medical people \u2013 doctors, very few nurses \u2013 treating anybody who was indigent.\u201d<\/p>\n Poor people, migrants, people with disabilities, homeless people, people with addiction problems and prisoners will instead receive \u201cstripped down, automated care: AI-driven triage and denial-by-algorithm\u201d. <\/p>\n This feeds further into nativist politics. Doherty says the language already used around migrants is evidence of a deliberate othering. As time goes on, and \u201cwealthy nations retreat behind a fortress mentality\u201d, the \u201cother\u201d could be portrayed as a carrier of disease, with health concerns informing debate around borders. <\/p>\n His alternative future is more hopeful, where the climate emergency is taken seriously and ecological collapse is curbed. In this world, \u201chuman-centric AI becomes a tool for collective wellbeing rather than exclusion\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cHealthcare shifts upstream \u2013 toward prevention, mental wellbeing, genetic risk mitigation, and personalised therapies. AI assists clinicians, freeing time for human connection and judgment, and supports people to live healthier, more flourishing lives across the lifespan.\u201d<\/p>\n A big decision will have to be made around how much agency we afford AI in healthcare. Doherty says the prescription system, as is, acts as an accountability framework that could be undermined if machines are introduced en masse. <\/p>\n [\u00a0The chatbot will see you now: is this the future of Irish medicine?Opens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n In the worst version of 2050, an entire underclass could be treated by an algorithm, with some patients being excluded from healthcare on the basis of their behaviour. In a \u201cnightmare scenario\u201d, surveillance systems could inform selective treatment, deciding who is deserving of certain care. <\/p>\n \u201cBy 2050, technology will not save or doom healthcare on its own,\u201d says Doherty. \u201cThe decisive factor will be whether we choose solidarity over exclusion and whether medicine remembers who it is for.\u201d<\/p>\n The future of energyMuireann Lynch, energy economics researcher and research officer at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)<\/p>\n Ireland will continue along a pathway of decarbonisation in the coming decades, but there are questions around how we go about it, according to Muireann Lynch. <\/p>\n \u201cThere will certainly be an awful lot of wind and solar involved on the electricity side, but on the heating and the transport side, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we shift away from the idea of electrification,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n \u201c[That\u2019s] the idea that we replace all of our petrol and diesel cars with electric cars, and we replace our gas and oil boilers with heat pumps. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if, instead, we move more towards new, synthetic fuels, at least to some extent.\u201d<\/p>\n Lynch believes the future of energy billing will be somewhat determined by that choice between renewables and synthetic fuels. More focus on renewables could mean energy bills mirror telecoms and move towards fixed rates.<\/p>\n If synthetic fuels play a bigger role, charges could be variable, where customers are charged per kilowatt-hour (kWh). <\/p>\n \u201cI do think as well that prices at the pump will probably continue to increase until we get to the point where the car stock has changed a lot,\u201d Lynch says. \u201cAt that point, I think the government is going to have to consider something like congestion charging or road pricing, or having a different set of tolls.\u201d<\/p>\n At the moment, she says, we raise a large amount of revenue from motor tax and excise duty on fuel. If people are driving less, or driving more efficient cars, it will create a hole in the budget. <\/p>\n \u201cNo one likes the idea of congestion charges beforehand, but once you introduce [them] people love them. It means for those who don\u2019t want to drive, they have a far more pleasant city \u2026 And then, for those who do continue to drive, it means they\u2019re battling far less traffic.\u201d<\/p>\n The hope is that Ireland\u2019s public transport infrastructure can improve significantly in the coming decades. Lynch thinks the MetroLink will eventually get over the line, after taking a long time and costing a lot of money. She can\u2019t envisage a metro elsewhere in Ireland by 2050.<\/p>\n \u201cI would be very surprised if there wasn\u2019t a light rail outside of Dublin. A tram in Cork and or Galway. I do think rail is going to electrify, so certainly, some of the commuter lines in Dublin and also some of the lines within cities like Cork and Limerick, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if they electrify as well.\u201d<\/p>\n Ireland will be importing far fewer fossil fuels, but probably importing more electricity than we currently are by 2050. Hopefully, we will be exporting electricity too. Lynch expects us to have a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in operation. <\/p>\n \u201cI think we will still continue to use natural gas by 2050, and that will be imported via the Moffat gas line to Great Britain that we have at the moment, and then also via an LNG terminal on the west coast,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n The future of crime Dr Ian Marder, associate professor in criminology at Maynooth University<\/p>\n As a way of thinking about how crime may develop over the coming decades, Dr Ian Marder explains that the nature of the harm we do to each other is driven by society and societal structures. <\/p>\n \u201cDuring Covid-19, we saw spikes in domestic abuse and a fall in burglary, for example,\u201d he says. \u201cSo, there was a connection between the shock that society experienced and the trends in crime.\u201d <\/p>\n On that basis, if wide-scale societal disruption occurs \u2013 say, via climate breakdown, a major war or a rise in dictatorships around Europe \u2013 it could have a significant impact on how we interact, and therefore on crime, interrupting existing, long-term trends. <\/p>\n Of course, unless you make a stab at forecasting decades of geopolitics, this makes it difficult to cement any concrete predictions for crime in 2050. One thing that can be said is crime will likely develop in tandem with technological advancements. <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re starting to see very organised approaches to online fraud, and that seems very likely to continue and increase,\u201d says Marder.<\/p>\n \u201cFor example, in border areas in southeast Asia, there are now large hubs where people are trafficked to work in them and commit fraud against people in other countries. Unless technological developments prevent something, with new technology, other crimes will likely emerge.\u201d<\/p>\n Ireland\u2019s criminal justice system could also look different in 2050. Marder would like to see a recognition of the damage that can be done to people through criminal justice, and an understanding of the societal benefits that could come from social policy changes such as decarceration and decriminalisation of drugs. <\/p>\n \u201cSomething like the imprisonment of people with addictions and mental health issues,\u201d he says. \u201cI could foresee a situation where we eventually recognise that that is not acceptable. We could have a totally different approach to how we engage with, and support, people with serious mental health and physical health issues, even if they present as someone who has caused harm to someone else.\u201d<\/p>\n The future of housing Orla Hegarty, architect and assistant professor at the School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin<\/p>\n \u201cWhat I\u2019d love is if we had a vision for what it would look like in 25 years,\u201d Orla Hegarty says of Irish housing. <\/p>\n In an ideal world, communities in 2050 would be pleasant places to live \u2013 sustainable, energy efficient and with good walking, cycling and public-transport infrastructure. Unfortunately, Hegarty does not believe that vision exists in current housing policy. <\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a very piecemeal approach that\u2019s very developer-led. We know we\u2019ve had huge problems with bad planning and sprawl in the past and yet, that\u2019s what we\u2019re doing again.\u201d<\/p>\n Hegarty\u2019s primary concern for the future is family housing, which she says is not being built in sustainable, central communities, but instead growing in remote suburbs where cars are essential to most aspects of daily life. <\/p>\n In built-up city areas, she says, the current path is leading to more \u201ctemporary, transient, small housing for particular demographics and that is poor infrastructure\u201d. More specifically, Hegarty says cities are being steered towards short-term, mono-tenure housing for students and workers. <\/p>\n \u201cThere isn\u2019t an integrated approach to how people actually live and how communities function when there\u2019s a mixture of people and families,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n Depopulation in rural parts of the country is a growing concern in Ireland. Hegarty recently examined the trend in parts of south Kerry, noting that affordable housing and sufficient supply are not just urban issues; therefore, councils countrywide need to build at scale, and accommodation for tourists needs to be controlled so that permanent residents are not priced out.<\/p>\n \u201cIn places that have a significant tourist economy, new supply may not meet local need, because housing is going to second homes and holiday lets,\u201d she says. \u201cA quarter of the homes in that district [south Kerry] are holiday homes now. Local people just can\u2019t compete with what holiday houses rent for.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"AlphaFold,](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/6MPYS33LKJGA7CPH62DR7I3N2I.jpg\")
AlphaFold, which determines the structure of millions of proteins ‘has completely changed how we do drug discovery’. Photograph: iStock <\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/PRCAKOPENNAZFABVRTG44YO7II.jpg\")
A big decision will have to be made around how much agency we afford AI in healthcare. <\/p>\n![\"'There](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/UO6I243Q4ZDQXIY46ASQXK72MU.jpg\")
‘There will certainly be an awful lot of wind and solar involved on the electricity side’ <\/p>\n![\"Wth](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/UIMN6BNM2FHKFECOCGSXRPIHVM.jpg\")
Wth new technology, new crimes will likely emerge <\/p>\n![\"Instead](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/NWCQ436ALVBSZKEW2OW7XYVOEE.jpg\")
Instead of an taking an integrated approach to housing and people’s needs, in Ireland we are ‘building the wrong houses in the wrong places, as we\u2019ve done before’ <\/p>\n
![\"Technology](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AWZEKFBKU5GFNDHQCIIETQWJHY.jpg\")
Technology is already ingrained in certain facets of sport, notably and sometimes controversially in the form of the video assistant referee. Photograph: Getty <\/p>\n