{"id":66798,"date":"2025-05-01T22:23:11","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T22:23:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/66798\/"},"modified":"2025-05-01T22:23:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T22:23:11","slug":"predictions-odds-expert-picks-and-favorite-horses-to-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/66798\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictions, odds, expert picks and favorite horses to win"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"body-graf\">Saturday marks the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, the greatest two minutes in sports and one of the most bet-on events of the year. According to Churchill Downs, $210.7 million was wagered on the race last year, up from $188 million the previous year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">As we prepare for mint juleps and the playing of \u201cMy Old Kentucky Home,\u201d let\u2019s dive into the 2025 field and how to bet it.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">First it\u2019s important to know about the Kentucky Derby\u2019s unpredictability. The favorite has won the race just under 35% of the time since 1908 (40 times) and not once in the last five years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">There are two classifications of bets in horse racing: straight and exotic. A straight bet involves a single horse. An exotic bet involves more than one horse.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">The three most basic bets are all straight bets. They are betting a single horse to win, place or show. Choosing a horse to \u201cwin\u201d is exactly what you think. You are betting on a specific horse to win the race. Betting on a horse to \u201cplace\u201d means you are betting on said horse to finish first or second. A bet on a horse to \u201cshow\u201d is wagering that the horse will finish first, second or third.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">In the simplest of terms, exotic bets are parlays featuring multiple horses:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>Exacta<\/strong>: a bet on two horses to finish first and second in that order.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>Quinella<\/strong>: a bet on two horses to finish first and second in any order.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>Trifecta<\/strong>: a bet on three horses to finish first, second and third in that order.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>Superfecta<\/strong>: a bet on four horses to finish first, second, third and fourth in that order.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">Now that you know a few of the terms, let\u2019s dive into the field.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">Journalism is the favorite with odds of 7-2. It is followed by Sandman (5-1), American Promise (8-1) and Sovereignty (11-1). <\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 1 Citizen Bull (17-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Martin Garcia |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Bob Baffert<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/breeders-cup-citizen-bull-gets-easy-win-in-breeders-cup-juvenile\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2024 Breeders\u2019 Cup Juvenile<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0This will be Garcia\u2019s fifth Derby. His best finish was third in 2015 aboard Dortmund.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 2 Neoequos (60-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Flavien Pratt |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Saffie Joseph Jr.<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Finished third in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/sovereignty-goes-from-last-to-first-to-win-2025-fountain-of-youth-stakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fountain of Youth Stakes<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Bred in Florida, Neoequos is attempting to become the seventh horse bred in Florida to win the Kentucky Derby. The last was Silver Charm in 1997.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 3 Final Gambit (17-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Luan Machado |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Brad H. Cox<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/why-final-gambit-should-be-on-peoples-radar-in-2025-kentucky-derby\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0The Kentucky Derby will be Final Gambit\u2019s first race on dirt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 4 Rodriguez (9-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Michael E. Smith |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Bob Baffert<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the 2025 Wood Memorial<\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Both of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/rodriguez-trending-up-for-kentucky-derby-2025-after-wood-memorial-win\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rodriguez<\/a>\u2019s victories have been wire to wire, and he figures to be at or near the front early in the Derby.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 5 American Promise (12-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Nik Juarez |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0D. Wayne Lukas<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/american-promises-win-at-the-virginia-derby-is-an-eye-opener\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Virginia Derby<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0The phrase \u201cAmerican Promise\u201d is also associated with a handful of moments leading to the passage of the Voting Rights Act.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 6 Admire Daytona (40-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Christophe Lemaire |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Yukihiro Kato<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the UAE Derby<\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact: The UAE Derby was the fourth consecutive time a Japan-bred horse has won the race.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 7 Luxor Cafe (14-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0TBA |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Noriyuki Hori<\/li>\n<li>Race Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/video-bet-hor-dinsicks-six-derby-contenders\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Fukuryu Stakes<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Luxor Cafe won three stakes races in Japan to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer and horse are making their first starts outside Japan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 8 Journalism (4-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Umberto Rispoli |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Mike McCarthy<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/kentucky-derby-favorite-journalism-surges-late-to-win-santa-anita-derby\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Santa Anita Derby<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Curlin (Journalism\u2019s sire) has sired winners of the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders\u2019 Cup Classic but not the Kentucky Derby.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 9 Burnham Square (22-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Brian T. Hernandez Jr. |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Ian R. Wilkes<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/burham-squares-kentucky-derby-outlook-after-blue-grass-stakes-win\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Blue Grass Stakes<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Burnham Square\u2019s grandfather is the 1990 Derby winner, Unbridled.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 10 Grande (17-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0John Velazquez |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Todd A. Pletcher<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Rallied from seventh for a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial to qualify for the Derby.<\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Pletcher and Velazquez teamed up to win the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 11 Flying Mohawk (39-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Joseph D. Ramos |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0D. Whitworth Beckman<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Second in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/video-bet-hor-dinsicks-six-derby-contenders\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0The Kentucky Derby will be Flying Mohawk\u2019s first race on dirt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 12 East Avenue (36-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Luan Machado |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Brendan P. Walsh<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Second in the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes<\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Medaglia d\u2019Oro, East Avenue\u2019s sire, raced in all three Triple Crown races in 2002, finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, eighth in the Preakness and second in the Belmont.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 13 Publisher (33-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Flavien Prat |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Steven M. Asmussen<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Finished second in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/sandman-trained-by-mark-casse-wins-2025-arkansas-derby-victory-at-oaklawn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arkansas Derby<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Asmussen is the winningest trainer of all time, having amassed over 10,000 victories as a trainer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 14 Tiztastic (19-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Joel Rosario |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Steven M. Asmussen<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/tiztastic-pulls-away-to-win-louisiana-derby-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Louisiana Derby<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Asmussen\u2019s father was a jockey, as are his two sons.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 15 Render Judgment (12-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Julien Leparoux |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Kenneth G. McPeek<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Finished fifth in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/burham-squares-kentucky-derby-outlook-after-blue-grass-stakes-win\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Blue Grass Stakes<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0The Kentucky Derby will be Leparoux\u2019s first ride on Render Judgment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 16 Coal Battle (31-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Juan P. Vargas |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Lonnie Briley<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/analyzing-coal-battles-rebel-stakes-win-and-kentucky-derby-potential\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Rebel Stakes<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Coal Battle\u2019s parents, Coal Front and Wolfblade, are descendants of Seattle Slew.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 17 Sandman (5-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Jose L. Ortiz |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Mark Casse<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/sandman-needs-a-perfect-trip-to-be-a-contender-at-the-kentucky-derby\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Arkansas Derby<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Tapit (Sandman\u2019s sire) is the No. 1 active sire by lifetime Grade 1 winners and the all-time leading sire by earnings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 18 Sovereignty (11-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Manuel Franco |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0William I. Mott<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/sovereignty-would-be-top-3-in-kentucky-derby-contenders\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Fountain of Youth<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Mott was the trainer of Resilience, who finished sixth in the Derby last year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 19 Chunk of Gold (37-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0Jareth Loveberry |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Ethan W. West<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Placed second at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/tiztastic-pulls-away-to-win-louisiana-derby-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025 Louisiana Derby<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0This is Loveberry\u2019s second Derby ride. He rode Two Phil\u2019s to a second-place finish in 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>No. 20 Owen Almighty (44-1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"break-above body-ul body-list-el\">\n<li>Jockey:\u00a0TBA |\u00a0Trainer:\u00a0Brian Lynch<\/li>\n<li>Career Highlight:\u00a0Won the Tampa Bay Derby with the second-fastest time in its history.<\/li>\n<li>Fun Fact:\u00a0Irad Ortiz Jr. rode Owen Almighty at Tampa, but the ride is in question for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/watch\/podcasts\/bet-the-edge\/video-bet-hor-dinsicks-top-kentucky-derby-odds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Derby<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Kentucky Derby predictions<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>NBC Sports&#8217; Drew Dinsick likes &#8220;American Promise,&#8221; the youngest horse in the field, to win Saturday. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">It is rare to have a strong opinion about a race that is as wide open and unpredictable as the Kentucky Derby. This is undoubtedly a very strong field with a completely worthy favorite in Journalism, but I\u2019ve been taken by the physically impressive American Promise, the Justify colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas. <\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">American Promise was a late foal and is just now maturing into the horse to beat for this race, in my opinion. His Virginia Derby romp was a sign of things to come, and I think he has an enormous run in him Saturday to hold off this competitive field. Expecting American Promise to be stalking a fast pace through the opening half-mile and be in ideal position to take the lead into the final turn and hoping his pedigree and recent development can help him hold on down the stretch. I&#8217;m hopeful that we get a price in the 15-1 range for this potential breakout superstar. \u2014 Dinsick<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\"><strong>NBC Sports&#8217; Al Bernstein expects Journalism to place but come up just short of a win.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">Journalism is the morning line favorite, and he is probably the fastest horse in the race. His stalking style, however, could see him either getting caught up in the pace or having front-runners backing up in his face in the late going.\u00a0In my top five, I have four closers and Journalism, and I see the favorite getting caught at the wire.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">Any one of those closers winning would not surprise me. That includes Publisher, who will be a big price and has never won a race.\u00a0He might give Steve Asmussen his first Derby winner after having gone 0-for-26. Here&#8217;s how I see it finishing:<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">1st: Sandman<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">2nd: Journalism<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">3rd: Sovereignty<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">4th: Burnham Square<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-graf\">5th: Publisher \u2014 Bernstein<\/p>\n<p class=\"endmark body-graf\">If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Council on Problem Gambling for help at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/sports\/horse-racing\/tel:18005224700\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1-800-522-4700<\/a>, or go online at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/ncpgambling.org\/chat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Saturday marks the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, the greatest two minutes in sports and one of&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66799,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4107],"tags":[1071,79,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-66798","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-racing","8":"tag-racing","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114434919951793647","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}