The guarantee, which ensures the state pension<\/a> rises in line with whichever is highest of inflation, wage increases or 2.5 per cent, is \u201cbecoming increasingly expensive as the population ages and the tax burden on working-age people grows\u201d, experts said.<\/p>\n This year the policy means that from 6 April, the new state pension \u2013 given to those who retired in 2016 or later \u2013 will hit \u00a312,547.60, a rise of \u00a3574.60.<\/p>\n New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.<\/p>\n While the triple lock remains popular with voters \u2013 with polling carried out by Savanta for The i Paper showing there is public support for increased spending on the state pension \u2013 concerns are growing in Westminster and among economists that it is unsustainable<\/a> for the public finances.<\/p>\n The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that the policy will be three times more expensive by the end of the decade than it was expected to be when it was introduced in 2011, costing \u00a315.5bn by 2030.<\/p>\n In an article in The Times, Paul Ovenden \u2013 who was Starmer\u2019s director of strategy in No 10 from July 2024 to September 2025<\/a> \u2013 cited pension policy as an example of a \u201cstakeholder state\u201d where decisions are made in Whitehall to please powerful interest groups.<\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t have to keep picking the pockets of the productive parts of our economy in order to fund inflation-busting pension increases for millionaires or an unsustainable welfare system,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at the wealth management company Quilter, said the Government should use the opportunity of a review of the pensions system, launched by ministers last summer, to take a fresh look at the triple lock.<\/p>\n He told The i Paper: \u201cThe triple lock is becoming increasingly expensive as the population ages and the tax burden on working-age people grows.<\/p>\n \u201cIts volatility has also become more apparent in recent years, with temporary spikes in inflation and wage growth triggering unusually large increases in the state pension. These events pull the policy\u2019s shortcomings sharply into focus.<\/p>\n \u201cMany pensioners are still feeling the effects of the cost of living crisis, and protecting their incomes resonates with voters. But there is a growing debate about fairness. A system designed to protect against poverty now benefits all pensioners equally, regardless of income. Meanwhile, younger generations face rising taxes, weaker job security and less generous private pensions.<\/p>\n \u201cLabour\u2019s planned review of the pensions and retirement savings framework offers a crucial opportunity to look again at whether the triple lock remains fit for purpose.<\/p>\n \u201cOne potential reform is to link increases solely to earnings, helping align pension growth with the wider economy and creating a more predictable and affordable system.\u201d<\/p>\n The respected think-tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies has backed tying the state pension increase to wage growth.<\/a><\/p>\n He acknowledged that any change \u201cmust be handled carefully\u201d but urged Labour not to ignore \u201cthe long-term pressures the triple lock presents\u201d despite the political risks.<\/p>\n Greer added: \u201cAlthough there appears to be no element of the pension review looking specifically at the triple lock it would be sensible to consider the policy not in isolation but as part of a wider retirement strategy that balances support for today\u2019s pensioners with fairness for future generations. The political risks are clear, but so too is the economic case for reform.\u201d<\/p>\n While many Labour MPs question the affordability of the triple lock, there is a reluctance to change it because of the potential electoral repercussions, particularly in the wake of the backlash the party received over cuts to winter fuel payments<\/a>.<\/p>\n A minister told The i Paper that views were mixed across Government and the Parliamentary Labour Party about whether the lock should be reformed.<\/p>\n One Labour MP said: \u201cWhile someone needs to reform the triple lock I haven\u2019t detected that that someone is this government to be honest. <\/p>\n \u201cWe said we wouldn\u2019t in the manifesto, there are still fingers burned from [the cuts to] winter fuel payments\u201d.<\/p>\n \t\tYour next read<\/p>\n
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