\u201cI would give anything in the world if, in this address, I could say that peace will also come in just a few minutes,\u201d Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a message to the Ukrainian people released just before midnight on New Year\u2019s Eve. \u201cUnfortunately, I cannot say that yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
Zelenskyy said a peace agreement was \u201c90% ready\u201d, but added something that subverted Donald Trump\u2019s constant claims that a deal is just around the corner. \u201cThose 10% contain, in fact, everything,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
It is almost a year since Trump took office and promised to end Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine within 24 hours. That never seemed possible, but as 2025 came to a close a new flurry of US diplomacy<\/a> began, accompanied by more optimistic statements about peace.<\/p>\n President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivering his new year address to the Ukrainian people. Photograph: Ukraine presidency\/Planet Pix\/Zuma Press Wire\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n The talks were kicked off by the leaking of a peace plan drafted by Russia and the US. Washington told Zelenskyy that Ukraine would have to give up the Donbas region, while the US army secretary, Dan Driscoll, gathered diplomats from Nato countries in Kyiv for what one person present described as<\/a> \u201ca nightmare meeting\u201d to tell them Ukraine should sign up to the deal now or face a worse one in future.<\/p>\n Zelenskyy, in concert with his European allies, managed to stave off the plan, which would have felt like a capitulation to most Ukrainians, and started work with the Americans on a new kind of plan. But even if Ukraine<\/a> and the US are now \u201c90% ready\u201d with that plan, the new year begins with a sense that peace remains elusive. There is little to suggest Russia will jump on board, and however much Trump claims Putin wants peace, Russian officials have made clear they will only sign up to an agreement that deals with what they call the \u201croot causes\u201d of the war.<\/p>\n There is a sense, however, as Ukrainians endure another winter of power cuts, air raids and separated families, that some kind of respite is needed soon. Ukrainians are feeling the exhaustion of close to four years of full-scale war.<\/p>\n Recruits of the 65th Separate Mechanised Brigade training in the Zaporizhzhia region. Photograph: 65th Mechanised Brigade press service\/EPA<\/p>\n \u201cWhen I\u2019m at the front I feel OK, but when I come back home I have bad dreams, take antidepressants and so on,\u201d said Serhiy, a Ukrainian soldier who has served on some of the most volatile parts of the frontline, and in December was on home leave in Kyiv. He said he was ready to keep fighting, rather than sign up to something that could prove disastrous for Ukraine in the long run, but conceded he may now be in a minority. \u201cI think by this stage, probably the majority would be ready to go for a bad deal; anything to stop the fighting,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n For many Ukrainians, this new year has been the hardest psychologically since the war began. At the start of 2023 there was still some hope that Ukrainian military success would put Russia<\/a> on the back foot and lead to something approaching victory. By 2024 this looked much less likely, but some semblance of hope remained.<\/p>\n When 2025 arrived, it was already clear that victory on the battlefield was not imminent, but the election of Trump for a second term boosted hopes in Kyiv that the wildcard politician could benefit Ukraine. An oft-heard prediction in Kyiv a year ago held that when Trump realised Putin was not serious about peace, he would pivot to backing Ukraine fully, disregarding the Biden administration\u2019s red lines and fear of escalation.<\/p>\n That did not happen, and as 2026 begins, it is hard for many in Ukraine to find anything that would give hope of a positive medium-term solution. For now, the best-case scenario appears to be that the Ukrainian military, and society, can continue holding out until the situation in Russia worsens enough that the Kremlin may be forced to accept negotiations on terms that would not require Ukrainian capitulation. The worst-case scenarios do not bear thinking about.<\/p>\n On Friday, Zelenskyy appointed his longstanding military intelligence head, Kyrylo Budanov, to be his chief of staff, after the resignation several weeks ago of Andrii Yermak, his closest advisor, in a corruption scandal.<\/p>\n Budanov, a mercurial and charismatic figure known for planning audacious operations against Russia, has good contacts with western intelligence agencies and also maintains contacts with Russia over prisoner exchanges. His appointment could signal a new approach to security and negotiations from Kyiv.<\/p>\n Smoke rises above residential buildings after Russian drone and missile attacks in Kyiv. Photograph: AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n The coming year may also prove a challenging one for Zelenskyy politically, as the five-year presidential term to which he was elected in spring 2019 nears the seven-year mark.<\/p>\n Martial law in Ukraine prevents the holding of elections, and while there is widespread criticism of Zelenskyy\u2019s leadership on a range of factors, the impossibility of a wartime election is one point on which there is a broad consensus across the Ukrainian political spectrum.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would only cause harm,\u201d Serhiy Rakhmanin, an MP from the opposition Holos party, told<\/a> the Guardian. \u201cHe\u2019s the commander-in-chief, and the country is in a position where we don\u2019t have that luxury, whatever issues we might have with him. It would only help the enemy.\u201d<\/p>\n Firefighters working at the site of an air attack in the Odesa region. Photograph: Ukrainian emergency service\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Trump, however, has called for an election, parroting the Russian claim that the lack of elections makes Zelenskyy an illegitimate president. \u201cThey haven\u2019t had an election in a long time. You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it\u2019s not a democracy any more.\u201d<\/p>\n Zelenskyy reacted by saying he would ask parliament to arrange the necessary laws to allow for a presidential election in wartime, and asked western allies to explain how they would see the security arrangements for a vote in a country at war. \u201cI don\u2019t want anyone to be able to use the lack of elections as an argument against Ukraine, so I\u2019m reacting to what our partners are saying,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander of Ukraine\u2019s army and current ambassador to London, is widely seen as the most viable electoral challenger to Zelenskyy<\/a>. Zaluzhnyi has turned down previous offers to join Zelenskyy\u2019s electoral team and is biding his time, having been sold on the idea of a political run but aware of the damage a competitive election could cause to Ukraine\u2019s fragile wartime society.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s not making any active preparations for a campaign, and his public position is that while the war continues he is not thinking about elections and not preparing for them,\u201d said a source close to Zaluzhnyi. \u201cTime will tell whether he goes into politics.\u201d<\/p>\n A man examining a drone that Russia said was used in an alleged attack on a residence of Vladimir Putin. Photograph: Russian defence ministry press service\/AP<\/p>\n